‘Jurassic World Rebirth’ Opens Today. It Could Kick Off Big Summer for Movies.

Scarlett Johansson and Johnathan Bailey in Jurassic World Rebirth (Courtesy Universal Pictures)

In the summer of 2023, the movies Barbie and Oppenheimer produced a bonanza at the box office, propelling the phenomenon known as “Barbenheimer.” While this summer doesn’t have an iconic doll or a famous physicist as a major character, ticket sales may play a starring role.

The big movies slated for this summer—many from popular franchises with recognizable characters—are expected to generate more than $4 billion in revenue—a level not seen since 2023, according to Comscore data.

From the first Friday of May through Labor Day Monday, U.S. and Canada domestically account for nearly 40% of the entire year in box office revenue, says Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore media analyst. “The summer really punches above its weight,” he told Barron’s. “It’s definitely a key driver for every studio and if they have even one summer hit, it can make or break their entire year.”

The opening weekend success of Apple’s F1 the Movie starring Brad Pitt may have set the tone for the Fourth of July weekend, with Jurassic World Rebirth from Comcast’s Universal Pictures set to open on Wednesday. Other notable films lined up for this month include Superman from Warner Bros. Discovery, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps from Walt Disney’s Marvel Studios.

Superman could help revive the DC Universe comic book franchise, which recently had disappointing results with Blue Beetle and The Flash.

The release of Superman comes after Warner Bros. said in June it would separate its streaming and movie studios from its cable channels. Superman’s box office receipts are unlikely to affect earnings. “If this movie were to come out next year post close for this transaction, a hit or miss would be much more material to the earnings of the new slimmer streaming company,” says Jeff Silberman, partner at Boston Consulting Group.

While sequels and franchises have led the box office in recent months—and movies slated for this summer, there have been some casualties. How To Train Your Dragon was a juggernaut while Pixar’s Elio flopped. Horror movie M3gan 2.0 fell short of expectations on its opening weekend.

But the summer box office may not nudge a company’s stock, says Silberman. For most studios, television and streaming represents the majority of revenue for traditional media companies like Warner Bros., Paramount and Walt Disney. “Big TV shows with lots of inventory for advertising that span years at a time tend to be way more material to corporate earnings and stock prices,” Silberman said*.*

Entertainment stocks are a mixed bag so far this year. Warner Bros. is up 3.1%, and Disney has climbed 10.8%. Cinema operators AMC, Cinemark and Marcus are each down year to date. IMAX shares are up 9% this year—the company projects the release of 14 movies filmed with IMAX cameras this year, according to IMAX’s second quarter earnings report last year.

IMAX entices viewers who want an immersive theater experience with the enhanced field of vision and surround sound system. “With the consumer being more selective on what movies they’re actually going to spend on, they want to go to the big experience because a regular movie theater screen is not that impressive versus being home,” says Seaport Research Partners senior equity analyst David Joyce.

At the same time, streaming platforms are becoming more intertwined with theaters. F1’s theatrical release is one example of how a streamer jumped on the bandwagon, boosting its marketing and propelling buzz ahead of the movie’s release on Apple TV+. Netflix also made a deal with Greta Gerwig, who directed “Barbie,” to release her Chronicles of Narnia on IMAX next year before its debut on Netflix —a rarity for the streaming giant.

There are two things that could really drive people to movie theaters: word-of-mouth and social media. Fans of A Minecraft Movie began throwing popcorn and flashing phone lights during a popular scene, catapulting a viral online trend by teenage audiences. This past year, Wicked fans re-created the movie’s popular songs and dances and referenced clips from press interviews featuring leading actresses Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.

“People are going to continue to let the fear of missing out drive purchases,” Kevin Near, Bloomberg Intelligence media analyst, told Barron’s. “If you see people talking about a movie, you might say ‘well maybe I should go see that.’”

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