Labor Day Air Travel Expected to Reach New Record

Air travel could break another record for this Labor Day holiday weekend. (Giorgio VIera / AFP / Getty Images)

Brace for more crowds and longer lines at U.S. airports this Labor Day weekend.

The Transportation Security Administration said it expects to screen nearly 17.4 million people at U.S. airport security checkpoints between this Thursday, Aug. 28, and Wednesday, Sept. 3. That includes a projected 2.91 million people this Friday, marking the holiday’s biggest expected airport travel day.

This year’s estimate beats the 17.03 million people TSA screened over the same period last Labor Day weekend, which was its busiest-ever for the holiday, according to revised TSA figures. TSA screened 2,913,547 passengers the Friday before Labor Day 2024.

Weatherwise, “it looks like a FANTASTIC Labor Day weekend!” Bill Kirk, founder and CEO of Weather Trends International in Bethlehem, Pa., told Barron’s. For the U.S. overall, Aug. 29 to Sept. 1 will be the coolest in 16 years, with below-average national temperatures of 84.8 degrees Fahrenheit. It will also be the driest in six years.

“The Northwest will be the HOTTEST region hanging onto Summer, the rest of us will feel more Fall-like,” Kirk said. Whereas last year, hot summer items sold well, this year’s temperatures will favor fall items such as hot beverages and back-to-school purchases such as clothing.

Kirk said that there could be some air traffic delays at bigger airport hubs like Dallas and Atlanta, and especially for more regional flights throughout the Southeast with scattered thunderstorms.

Summer travel has already been strong. The Federal Aviation Administration said as of the week of Aug. 18, it had seen more than five million flights since Memorial Day weekend, “making it the busiest summer in 15 years.”

For travelers, however, surging demand can also lead to delays. Complicating things at the airport is a requirement since May 7 that travelers carry Real ID-compliant driver’s licenses or other acceptable forms of identification to board domestic flights.

The FAA earlier this month extended the limited rate of arrivals and departures to and from Newark Liberty International Airport. The proposal would limit arrivals and departures to 28 an hour during airport construction on weekends from Sept. 1 through Dec. 31, 2025. It would also limit arrivals and departures to 36 an hour outside of construction times through Oct. 24, 2026.

For those who are driving this Labor Day holiday, GasBuddy predicts that average gas prices will fall to $3.15 a gallon this weekend, down 14 cents from last Labor Day, and the lowest Labor Day pump prices since 2020.

“It’s been the cheapest summer to hit the road since the pandemic, a trend that will likely continue with the potential for the national average to fall below $3 per gallon this fall,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis. Although gas prices in nearly half of the states have risen over the past month because of localized refinery outages, he said motorists can expect more relief in coming weeks as the U.S. transitions back to cheaper winter gasoline in mid-September.

De Haan said remaining challenges include: Hurricane season and uncertainty over trade, tariffs, and Russia’s war on Ukraine. “However, I remain optimistic that has cooler weather invades, gas prices, too, will seasonally cool off.”

Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com