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Barron’s Forecasting Quiz: Predict What’s Ahead for 2026

Dec 26, 2025 02:30:00 -0500 by Andrew Bary | #Markets

(Illustration by Barron’s)

The markets once again provided many surprises in 2025. Crypto fell from favor, and precious metals had their best year since the 1970s as gold gained 70% and silver prices more than doubled.

The S&P 500 index surprised with a strong third year in a row, returning almost 20% as hot investing themes emerged in artificial-intelligence, space, robotics, and quantum computing stocks before a late-year selloff.

What will happen in 2026? Will the S&P 500 have a fourth large gain in a row? Will overseas markets continue their strong run? How many times will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? Then there are some nonfinancial questions. Who will win the 2026 World Cup in soccer?

Take our 24th annual forecasting challenge and see how well you do. The rules: only one answer per question, although some questions may have more than one right answer. The deadline for entries is Thursday, Jan. 1. All submissions must be made online; no paper submissions will be accepted. No one from News Corp, our parent company, is eligible to win.

The winner, to be announced in early 2027, will receive a two-year subscription to Barron’s and lunch in New York with the Barron’s staff member of his or her choosing.  Nobody has ever had a perfect score. Here are the questions:

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  1. What will the S&P 500 index return in 2026, including dividends?

A. Negative

B. Zero to 10%

C. 10.1% to 20%

D. 20.1% or more

  1. What will be the year’s biggest financial surprise?

A. S&P 500 has a negative return

B. Private credit hits a wall; BIZD exchange-traded fund focused on private credit has negative return

C. Gold gains another 25% or more

D. Oil rallies, with WTI crude ending above $80 a barrel

E. None of the above

  1. Which S&P 500 sector will fare best in 2026?

A. Technology

B. Energy

C. Healthcare

D. Consumer Staples

E. Financials

  1. Which winning stock from 2025 will generate the worst returns in 2026?

A. Palantir Technologies

B. Robinhood Markets

C. GE Vernova

D. Newmont

  1. Which losing stock from 2025 will do best in 2026?

A. Chipotle Mexican Grill

B. Comcast

C. Procter & Gamble

D. Strategy

  1. Who will President Trump name as Fed chief?

A. Kevin Hassett

B. Kevin Warsh

C. Christopher Waller

D. Someone else

  1. Which asset class will fare best in 2026?

A. U.S. stocks (S&P 500)

B. International stocks (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF)

C. U.S. bonds (iShares Core Aggregate Bond ETF)

D. Gold

E. Bitcoin

  1. Which country will win the most medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

A. Norway

B. Germany

C. U.S.

D. Canada

E. Another country

  1. Which country will win the 2026 soccer World Cup?

A. France

B. Spain

C. England

D. Brazil

E. Another team

  1. What will happen in the 2026 midterm elections?

A. GOP retains control of both houses of Congress

B. Democrats win control of both houses

C. Democrats win the House, GOP wins the Senate

D. GOP wins House, Dems the Senate

  1. Name the top-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including dividends (worth two points).

  2. Name the worst-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including dividends (worth two points).

  3. Which of these four companies will have the highest market value at year-end 2026? (Nvidia is now on top.)

A. Apple

B. Microsoft

C. Nvidia

D. Alphabet

  1. How many times will the Federal Reserve move interest rates in 2026?

A. Three or more cuts

B. Two cuts

C. One cut

D. Not at all or raise rates

  1. Which commodity will perform best in 2026?

A. Gold

B. Silver

C. Oil

D. Natural gas

E. Soybeans

  1. Where will the 10-year Treasury yield end 2026? (It’s now around 4.15%.)

A. 3.75% or lower

B. 3.76% to 4.25%

C. 4.26% to 4.75%

D. 4.76% or higher

  1. Tiebreaker: Where will the Dow industrials end 2026? (The index is now around 48,000.)

By submitting your response to this questionnaire, you consent to Dow Jones processing your special categories of personal information and are indicating that your answers may be investigated and published by Barron’s and you are willing to be contacted by a Barron’s reporter to discuss your answers further. In an article on this subject, Barron’s will not attribute your answers to you by name unless a reporter contacts you and you provide that consent.