Your July 4th Burgers Will Be Pricey. Maybe Grill Pork Chops Instead.

The average price of ground beef rose 11.5% to $6.25 a pound in May from a year earlier. (Dreamstime)

Beef prices are sizzling, just in time for that favorite national pastime on July 4: grilling, barbecuing, and picnicking to celebrate U.S. independence.

But economic uncertainty has shaken up consumers this summer season. This year, total spending for Fourth of July festivities dropped 5.3% from last year to $8.9 billion, according to survey data from the National Retail Federation. Of the people surveyed, 61% will participate in cookouts, picnics and barbecues, down 5% from last year.

Pricier hamburgers could be one factor discouraging some Americans from opening their doors for an annual cookout.

The average price of ground beef rose 11.5% to $6.25 a pound in May from a year earlier, according to consumer price index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average monthly price of ground beef has shot up 31% since 2020, based on 2025 data through May.

Behind the steady climb in beef prices are persistent drought conditions, which have plagued cattle-producing areas and reduced grazing lands across the country since 2021. This led to more farmers replacing male cattle with females, tightening inventory to its lowest levels since the 1950s, according to the American Farm Bureau. Farmers typically sell female cattle to slaughterhouses when they forecast lower profitability.

Now, the price to host a 10-person cookout party serving summer staples—including cheeseburgers, potato salad, lemonade and pork chops—is $70.92, some 19% higher than five years ago, though down slightly from 2024, according to data from the American Farm Bureau Federation, a trade group that represents U.S. farmers and ranchers.

It isn’t just because of burgers. Labor shortages and increasing costs have pushed up prices for produce, too. Strawberries, a handpicked crop, cost eight cents more per pound on average from last year, according to the American Farm Bureau. Cooling off with lemonade will cost more, as prices per pitcher are 20 cents more thanks to increased lemon prices. Potato salad, though, only rose seven cents per 2.5 pounds from last year despite inflated prices for a typical ingredient—eggs.

Prices changes for other cookout staples, meanwhile, have eased. Eight-count packs of both hamburger and hot dog buns fell 1.5% from last year, according to Datasembly.

And pork chops—a popular meat cut for grilling—might be the best bargain. Their prices dropped 9% from a year ago because of increased hog supply and lower demand. Prices could increase in the coming months, as hotter summer temperatures are leading to slower weight gains in hogs, hindering production and tightening supply.

Burger devotees, however, could catch a break soon.

A shift in consumer preference to pork could mean lower beef prices in the future, says Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau. Nelson says beef demand might have hit its peak for the season.

“If preferences start to change, that could balance things out a bit,” he told Barron’s. “If we lose our demand or if demand falls off, we could see some of these prices start to drop a little bit.”

In any case, higher beef prices haven’t turned off meat lovers yet. During the Covid-19 pandemic, preference for beef increased as consumers cooked at home. Since then, demand hasn’t faltered, despite inflationary pressures.

“Americans love beef and are clearly willing to open their wallets a little further to still enjoy beef, even if the price is a bit higher,” says Anne-Marie Roerink, founder of market research firm 210 Analytics.

And consumers aren’t the only ones feeling pain.

On the fields, livestock producers continue to struggle with little outlook for improvement. In May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture paused live cattle, bison and equines imports from Mexico after detecting New World Screwworm, an animal-tissue eating disease. After the agriculture department announced Monday that those imports will resume next week, live cattle futures posted a $2.30 to $3.12 loss at Tuesday’s close. Reopening the Southern border could create an oversupply of cattle in the U.S., ultimately driving prices down.

“When you have margins that are really tight as they are, and then you have an announcement on a single day that can change that profitability, it just goes to show what type of risk farmers are taking right now,” Nelson said.

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