MP Materials Stock Jumps After Earnings. The Market ‘Has It Wrong’ on Rare Earths.

A glass jar containing the rare earth metal Terbium. It is used in an iPhone color screen and speakers. (AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• MP Materials reported a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss and anticipates fourth-quarter profits, with shares rising 4.8%.
• The company’s new heavy rare-earth separation facility will begin commissioning in mid-2026.
• Realized pricing for neodymium praseodymium oxide increased to $59 per kilogram from $48 a year ago, with future prices expected to exceed $100.

MP Materials, the largest rare-earth miner in the Western Hemisphere, reported third-quarter earnings that sent its stock higher Friday.

Numbers look fine. The company reported a smaller-than-expected loss and guided to profits in the fourth quarter, as Wall Street had projected.

There were several key updates on the earnings conference call. MP’s new heavy rare-earth separation facility will begin commissioning at its Mountain Pass mine in mid-2026. MP’s relationship with Apple kicked off with a $40 million prepayment. Sales of rare-earth oxides were zero in the quarter, due to the cessation of sales to China. And realized pricing for neodymium praseodymium oxide was about $59 per kilogram in the quarter, up from $48 a year ago. Prices for that product will continue to rise and should be north of $100 per kilogram in the coming years.

All that is positive. Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas raised his price target for MP stock by $2 to $79 after the quarterly report. He rates shares Buy.

MP shares bounced 4.8% to $54.45 Friday morning, a sharp reversal from its 6% drop during premarket trading. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, after the open.

Shares of aspiring rare-earth miners USA Rare Earth were down 0.8%, while Ramaco Resources rose 2.6%. USA Rare Earth also reported third-quarter numbers on Thursday. It, however, doesn’t have sales yet. The quarterly report serves as a business update. It continues to develop its Round Top mine in Texas.

It’s been a brutal stretch for rare-earth stocks after the early 2025 euphoria. Coming into Friday trading, the three stocks were down an average of 37% from October highs that followed Chinese threats to restrict rare-earth exports.

China dominates rare-earth materials, with an estimated 85% of global processing capacity. That near-monopoly is why the U.S. government has moved to increase domestic production of the elements that end up in everything from an iPhone to a fighter jet. In July, the Defense Department signed a deal with MP that included capital for expansion, a price floor, and a guaranteed customer for all rare-earth magnets the company plans to make.

It was a transformational deal for the industry, which is why, despite recent drops, MP stock was still up 233% so far this year heading into Friday trading.

Recent trade negotiations are “having a whipsawing effect on the prices of U.S. rare earth equities. China/US relationship good—U.S. rare earth stocks down; China/US relationship bad—US rare earth stocks up,” added Gianarikas. “We think the market has it wrong. We are of the strong opinion that the U.S. is on the unshakeable path to magnetic—and broad critical materials—independence. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”

Despite all the volatility, investors should expect investment in domestic rare-earth production, justified by pricing for the materials and magnets.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com