Madison Square Garden Looks to Replace Billy Joel With New Acts as Stock Falls

Billy Joel’ s monthly concerts at Madison Square Garden were guaranteed moneymakers for a decade. (Theo Wargo/Getty Images)

The end of Billy Joel’s 10-year residency at Madison Square Garden was one of several factors squeezing the iconic venue’s owner in fiscal year 2025, and a hit to its stock since quarterly results were announced on Wednesday.

The Garden’s utilization rate fell to 65% last year from 92% in fiscal year 2024. But Garden officials said they expect an increase in the number of events, including concerts, family shows, sports, and a new residency to replace Joel, in the coming fiscal year. Cirque du Soleil is booked for 63 shows during the Christmas holiday season at the Theater at MSG and at the Chicago Theater, according to David Collins, chief financial officer of Madison Square Garden Entertainment .

Shares in MSG Entertainment have fallen from $40.22 a share at the close of trading on Tuesday to around $36 a share on Thursday.

The stock activity may reflect the actions of trading bots that latch onto earnings-per-share figures, although that metric isn’t usually how media stocks are valued, David Joyce, a senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, told Barron’s.

MSG Entertainment’s earnings fell to 78 cents a share for the year ended June 30 from $2.99 a share a year earlier. Much of that reflected tax changes from year to year.

A better barometer of media company’s health is adjusted operating income, according to Joyce, which in the case of MSG Entertainment rose 5% in fiscal year 2025. “And we expect +8.6% growth in 2026,” he says.

Seaport and others see plenty of silver linings in MSG Entertainment’s future because of its plans to increase bookings throughout its stable of high-profile venues, which also include Radio City Music Hall and the Beacon Theater in New York City, and the Chicago Theater. About six million people saw more than 975 live events at these and other venues throughout the fiscal year.

Among other hopeful signs analysts cite are plans for a new artist to take up residency at the Garden next year, with a “substantial number of dates,” Collins said during an earnings call on Wednesday. Joel’s 10-year residency at the Garden ended on July 25, 2024, after 150 monthly shows that were often sold out.

The new residency will “create potential for concert growth at the garden in fiscal ’27,” Collins said.

Analysts at Seaport, which reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and raised their price target to $48 a share from $46, said the new residency will help solidify growth in the number of events at the company. Another plus: MSGE Entertainment has increased the number of its Christmas Spectacular shows featuring the Radio City Rockettes at Radio City Music Hall this year to 211 from 200 a year earlier, a move that Seaport estimates will boost revenue by 5%.

More shows at the Garden mean more ticket holders going through the doors, and a boost in consumption of food, beverages, and merchandise, analysts said. MSG Entertainment also plans to increase sponsorship with naming rights for the Theater at MSG and exterior signage, Seaport said.

Guggenheim Securities, which named the stock as a “best idea” at the end of last year, also reiterated its Buy rating and a price target of $48 a share. The firm is optimistic about the company’s coming slate of Garden concerts, the popularity of its venues, and sustained consumer interest in live entertainment.

Guggenheim also cited MSG Entertainment’s stock repurchase plans. In fiscal 2025, the company repurchased 1.1 million Class A shares for $40 million. During the call with analysts, Collins said the company has about $70 million more in its current share repurchase authorization. “Going forward, we will continue to explore ways to opportunistically return capital to shareholders,” he said.

Although adjusted operating income was up 5% for the fiscal year to $222.5 million, revenue fell 2% for the year to $942.7 million and 17% in the fourth quarter, to $154.1 million.

But analysts are focused on the future. One reason for optimism: MSG Entertainment is already 80% toward its booking goal for the Garden in the next fiscal year. The loss of Joel as a resident artist was one reason for last year’s numbers, along with fewer home playoff games at the Garden by the New York Knicks and New York Rangers, Collins said.

Food, beverage, and merchandise sales picked up in the fourth quarter at Knicks and Rangers games, however, and Collins expects that to continue into fiscal 2026.

Write to Abby Schultz at abby.schultz@barrons.com