Nucor Stock Falls After Earnings. Why Its Guidance Was Far Off Rival Steel Dynamics.

Coming into Thursday trading, Nucor shares were up more than 20% year to date, partly boosted by new import tariffs on foreign steel. (Photo by Roger Ball/Worldsteel via Getty Images)

Key Points

About This Summary

• Nucor shares fall after the steel maker gives weaker-than-expected third-quarter guidance.
• Nucor anticipates third-quarter earnings per share between $2.05 and $2.15, below Wall Street’s expectation of $2.46.
• A Citi analyst notes lower volumes and narrower metal spreads in the steel mills segment for Nucor.

Nucor stock fell after giving weaker-than-expected third-quarter guidance.

Shares of the American steel maker dropped 6% to $134.30 on Thursday, while the S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%.

The move came after Nucor said Wednesday evening that third-quarter earnings per share should come in at between $2.05 and $2.15 a share. Wall Street was looking for $2.46, according to FactSet.

Guidance was a disappointment. Nucor reported EPS of $2.60 in the second quarter of 2025 and $1.05 in the third quarter of 2024.

Nucor noted “sequentially lower volumes and narrower metal spreads in the [steel] mills segment,” wrote Citi analyst Alexander Hacking in a Wednesday report. Spreads refer to the difference between steel prices and the prices Nucor pays for raw materials such as steel scrap.

Hacking rates shares Buy and has a $150 target price for the stock. The outlook “contrasts directly with Steel Dynamics’ recent guidance for stronger shipments and expanded spread,” he added.

Steel Dynamics on Tuesday said third-quarter EPS should be between $2.60 and $2.64 a share, up from $2.01 in the second quarter and $2.05 the year prior.

Wall Street was expecting EPS of closer to $2.70 a share, but earnings are improving quarter to quarter, and guidance was good enough to send Steel Dynamics stock up 6.1% on Tuesday.

“We would attribute this to Steel Dynamics’ idiosyncratic issues at Sinton in the second quarter and a more aggressive commercial strategy,” added Hacking. The Sinton mill is Steel Dynamics’ relatively new facility in Texas.

Coming into Thursday trading, Steel Dynamics’ stock has risen about 20% so far this year. Nucor shares have gained about 22%.

Higher domestic steel prices, partly due to import tariffs, have boosted benchmark steel prices. Hot rolled coil is selling for about $800 per ton, up roughly $100 year over year. Steel prices are still well below a recent 2021 peak of more than $1,800 per ton.

Steel prices have a powerful effect on steel-maker earnings. Nucor earned $23.16 in 2021. Wall Street expects about $8.20 a share in 2025.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com