Nucor Stock Is Down. Steel Prices Are Up, but There’s a Problem.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs have boosted the price of steel. (Roger Ball / Worldsteel / Getty Images)

Key Points

• Nucor projects fourth-quarter earnings per share between $1.65 and $1.75, below Wall Street’s expectation of $2.16.
• Rising costs are affecting Nucor’s margins despite benchmark steel prices increasing to $900 per ton.
• Nucor’s stock fell 3.2% in premarket trading following the guidance, while other steel stocks also saw declines.

Higher steel prices have been a boon to American steel companies. Now, higher costs, such as for scrap steel, are starting to bite.

On Wednesday, Nucor offered financial guidance this time for the fourth quarter. It sees earnings landing from $1.65 to $1.75 a share.

Nucor reported earnings of $2.63 a share in the third quarter of 2025 and $1.22 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Wall Street was looking for $2.16 a share, according to FactSet.

The stock fell 1%, closing at $160.69. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

Earnings will be down sequentially due to seasonal effects and what management described as “margin compression” in sheet steel. Benchmark steel prices have been fine, at about $900 per ton, up $100 since the end of the third quarter and up about $200 compared with a year ago. But costs, it seems, are rising too.

The price of scrap steel matters to Nucor because its business model relies on remelting scrap to make new steel.

Management struck an optimistic tone about 2026, noting that its backlog of orders is higher than a year ago. Still, investors appear to be focused on the fourth quarter.

Other steel stocks moved on Nucor’s guidance. Steel Dynamics rose 2.1%. Cleveland-Cliffs added 0.1%.

Steel Dynamics provided its own fourth-quarter earnings guidance —from $1.65 and $1.69 a share. Wall Street was looking for $2.06. The sequential and year-over-year changes look similar to Nucor, but investors took the news better.

Cliffs doesn’t have all of the same cost pressures as Nucor and Steel Dynamics. Cliffs makes a lot of steel using iron ore and coking coal in traditional blast furnaces. Nucor and Steel Dynamics don’t operate blast furnaces**.**

Coming into Wednesday trading, Nucor stock was up 39% year to date because steel prices have gotten a lift from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com