Broadcom and AMD Are Set to Share This Much of the $475 Billion AI Chip Market by 2030

Broadcom helps major technology companies design custom artificial-intelligence chips. (HandmadePictures/Dreamstime)

Key Points

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• Broadcom is projected to achieve nearly a 14% share of the AI chip market by 2030, generating approximately $65 billion in annual revenue.
• Nvidia’s AI chip market share is forecast to decrease from around 80% to 67% by the end of the decade, creating opportunities for competitors.
• Advanced Micro Devices is expected to hold just over a 4% AI chip market share by 2030, with annual revenue around $20 billion.

The race to be the second-largest player in artificial-intelligence chips is fierce between Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices . An analyst at Susquehanna thinks one is a clear favorite to take the silver medal behind market leader Nvidia .

Nvidia currently has around a 80% market share in AI chips, Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland wrote in a Thursday research note. However, many of its major customers are seeking alternatives to reduce the costs of the technology. Rolland estimates Nvidia’s market share is forecast to fall to 67% by the end of the decade.

That leaves a major chunk of revenue for other players—and Rolland expects Broadcom to be the major beneficiary and clinch just under 14% of total AI chip annual revenue of $475 billion in 2030, or around $65 billion. That would be up from $14.5 billion in 2025.

That projection is based on the current major technology companies continuing to dominate the AI hardware market and wanting to rely more on in-house technology, rather than being solely dependent on Nvidia’s processors.

Broadcom said alongside its most recent earnings report that it expects its clients to make more use of its hardware in the future— at the expense of Nvidia’s graphics-processing units.

Broadcom puts its AI revenue opportunity at between $60 billion and $90 billion by 2027 just from three existing hyperscale customers. Meanwhile, Rolland expects AMD to have just over a 4% share of the AI chip market by 2030, representing annual revenue of around $20 billion, up from $6.3 billion this year.

As Barron’s has previously noted, AMD’s current AI chips have made little impact on the dominance of Nvidia’s Blackwell hardware. However, the coming MI400 series—which includes the MI450 chip—will be AMD’s first rack-scale, 72-processor AI server offering. That could make it a more serious rival—and boost efforts to diversify AI hardware beyond Nvidia’s chips.

The Susquehanna analyst has a Positive rating on both stocks. Rolland has a $400 target price on Broadcom, which was down 2.8% at $329.80 in morning trading Thursday. He he has a $210 target price on AMD shares, which were down 2.2% at $157.44.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com