Nvidia Points to a China Crisis. That’s a Big Problem for Stock Markets, the Economy.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)

History is full of lessons, even for the first $4 trillion company and one that accounts for some 8% of the S&P 500 index. If the past is anything to go by, Nvidia’s trouble in China could become a big worry.

To be sure, the main takeaway from Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday night is they weren’t that bad. Yes, artificial intelligence data center revenues were disappointing and the outlook shows decelerating growth. But after years of breakneck expansion, investors must feel like Alexander the Great, weeping because there are no worlds left to conquer.

Well, except one. China, as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pointed out, is the second-largest computing market. And last quarter Nvidia made zero new sales there. For this quarter, Huang is also penciling in another goose egg for new orders.

He’s got a positive spin on this: if restrictions put in place by President Donald Trump are eased, China doesn’t continue to discourage its companies from buying Nvidia chips, and broader U.S.-China trade negotiations bear fruit then any sales in China would be a bonus of as much as $5 billion on top of current guidance. Investors clearly see a good chance that will happen, otherwise the stock would have dropped even further than the 3.7% in Wednesday after-hours trading.

But what if Nvidia is being realistic, rather than just conservative? China trade talks are taking longer than most, with key deadlines already extended twice. The White House is very clear that it sees China as an adversary. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s quip that he wants the world’s second-largest economy to be addicted to the fourth-best U.S.-made chips gives China all the more reason to invest in homegrown hardware.

History suggests that, on balance, globalization is enriching and deglobalization is impoverishing. If commerce with China is about to go in reverse and we’re heading for a repeat of what happened with the low-trade Cold War with the Soviet Union, that’s bad for the whole economy, not just Nvidia.

— Brian Swint

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Nvidia’s Revenue Jumps. It’s Still Navigating China.

Start-ups and corporations are still clamoring for Nvidia’s AI data center chips, but second-quarter revenue from the data center business was slightly below elevated expectations. Demand for its accelerated platform used for large language models, recommendation engines, and generative and agentic AI drove strong growth.

• The chip maker reported data center revenue of $41.1 billion in the July quarter, up 56% from a year ago. Large cloud computing providers made up about half that revenue. The quarter didn’t have any H20 chip sales to China and it hasn’t assumed any in its outlook.
• It’s still working out issues with China. If the geopolitical issues subside Nvidia can ship $2 billion to $5 billion of H20 revenue in the current quarter. CEO Jensen Huang also said sales of a newer Blackwell chip for China is a “real possibility” in the future.
• Second-quarter revenue of $46.7 billion surged 56% from a year ago, and profit was $1.05 a share. Specifically, Blackwell data center revenue rose 17%. Nvidia sees third-quarter revenue around $54 billion, higher than Wall Street forecasts.
• Operating expenses are expected to rise in the high-30% range for the 2026 fiscal year. The chip maker is boosting its stock buyback by $60 billion. As of the end of the second quarter it had $14.7 billion remaining under its prior authorization.

What’s Next: Nvidia said its new AI server products are ramping well. CFO Colette Kress said the transition to its most advanced and latest Blackwell Ultra GB300 NVL72 AI server has been “seamless” and full production is under way.

— Tae Kim

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Trump’s Fed Pick Defends Tariffs, Blames Biden for Intel Stake

President Donald Trump picked economic advisor Stephen Miran to take a temporary open seat on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors. Trump is also considering Miran for the longer-term seat held by Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, whom Trump said Monday he is firing. She is contesting the decision. Harvard-trained economist Miran spoke with Barron’s this week, sharing his thoughts on tariffs and the government’s stake in Intel.

• “We’ll see,” Miran said when asked about the government taking equity stakes in more companies, as it did with Intel. “Providing upside exposure in the form of equity is proper stewardship of government resources for the taxpayer,” he added.
• The economist blamed the need for equity stakes on the previous administration. “This money was already out the door,” he told Barron’s.
• Miran also said there was no evidence the White House’s sweeping tariffs have driven up inflation. “People will try and blame things on other people no matter what,” he said in response to a question about auto maker Ford, which said it had $800 million in tariff-related costs in the first half of 2025. Ford declined to comment.
• One point of controversy Miran was happy to clear up: His surname is pronounced My-run, not Mur-an. “I never really correct people because, like, 100 years ago, there were six more syllables and they got chopped off when my grandparents came to the United States.”

What’s Next: Miran wouldn’t take questions about the Fed, given his pending nomination. The Trump administration wants the Senate to vote on his candidacy before the central bank’s next monetary policy committee meeting on Sept. 16-17.

— Matt Peterson

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Nuclear Plants Refire to Boost Power Production for AI Boom

Backers of nuclear energy envision dozens of shiny new nuclear reactors being built all over America. For now, old nuclear reactors are being refurbished and brought back online to add more electricity to the grid as soon as possible, feeding the energy-hungry artificial intelligence boom.

• Florida-based renewable energy giant NextEra Energy is reviving the reactor at Iowa’s Duane Arnold energy center near Cedar Rapids. It will be the third potential restart of a mothballed nuclear facility to be announced since the start of 2024, but it won’t be running until 2028.
• NextEra sees the Duane Arnold plant as a potential earnings driver when its other businesses are facing challenges. It’s one of the biggest in renewable energy generation but federal subsidies for wind and solar power are ending amid the Trump administration’s support for fossil fuel and nuclear energy.
• Nuclear start-ups are focused on new plants. Oklo has three projects under an Energy Department pilot program that aims to have at least three test reactors running by July 2026. Oklo’s small modular reactors are designed to run on nuclear waste and require refueling once every decade.
• Oklo plans its first powerhouse on the grounds of the federally funded Idaho National Laboratory, aiming for 2027 commercial power production. The lab will provide Oklo with enriched uranium, but not necessarily in a format that the powerhouse can immediately burn. Oklo plans a fuel foundry at the same site.

What’s Next: Oklo has built other ventures, notably radioisotope production through its acquisition of Atomic Alchemy earlier this year. It plans to recycle spent nuclear fuel to extract isotopes with applications ranging from medical imaging to cancer treatment.

— Avi Salzman and Mackenzie Tatananni

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Taking a Look at the U.S.’s Decentralized Sovereign Wealth Fund

With its 10% stake in Intel, and covetous glances at other chip makers and defense firms, President Donald Trump’s administration seems on its way to having an accidental sovereign-wealth fund. It could be less about spurring development and more about asserting control.

• Veljko Fotak, a finance professor at the University of Buffalo’s School of Management, has spent years studying sovereign-wealth funds. He and others find that most are indifferent investors and bad at driving development and innovation. Norway and Singapore are exceptions.
• The White House shelved a true sovereign-wealth fund but took a 15% stake in the rare earth magnet firm MP Materials. It will get 15% of China sales by Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. It could demand equity from other chip makers who got funding from the Chips Act and it is eyeing defense contractors.
• Over 100 nations have some form of sovereign-wealth fund, adding up to more than $10 trillion of investments. Nearly half are funded by natural resources revenue. Many aim to keep their country’s trade surplus from swamping the local economy. Others focus on development.
• Since 1996, Norway’s fund has grown to nearly $2 trillion. Singapore’s $340 billion Temasek started in 1974 with a bundle of state-owned companies, such as Singapore Airlines, and then branched out. Neither responded to requests for comment.

What’s Next: Private capital for companies like Intel and Lockheed Martin isn’t lacking in the U.S. That makes Fotak wonder if the real aim of the Trump administration’s equity stakes is to enhance its political influence over the economy and to create patronage possibilities.

— Bill Alpert

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Brands Cash In On Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce Engagement

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement announcement on Instagram drew 31 million likes and a flurry of congratulations from the nation’s largest retailers and consumer brands, but only a few companies are expected to see measurable gains from the news.

• Krispy Kreme offered free celebratory glazed doughnuts, Wingstop quipped on X that “he put a wing on it.” Richemont and LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton stock rose because Swift was photographed wearing a Cartier watch and Louis Vuitton sandals in her engagement photos.
• American Eagle Outfitters, fresh off its controversial “great jeans” promotion with actress Sydney Sweeney, announced a collaboration with Kelce’s Tru Kolors sportswear brand, featuring vintage-inspired T-shirts, varsity jackets, and cashmere sets, priced between $14.95 and $179.95.
• Ralph Lauren could also get a boost. Both Swift and Kelce wore outfits by the company in their Instagram post. Though Ralph Lauren is one of the few brands that hasn’t posted anything about the proposal—it might not need to. Swift’s black-and-white striped dress is already out of stock.
• Recent high-profile celebrity endorsements include Nike joining forces with Kim Kardashian in February, and E.l.f Beauty acquiring Rhode, founded by influencer Hailey Bieber, for $1 billion. But those partnerships aren’t guaranteed to pay off for brands, MarketWatch reported.

What’s Next: Jefferies analyst Ashley Helgans believes the engagement shoot could be an “encouraging catalyst” for Ralph Lauren. According to Google Trends data, searches for “Taylor Swift Ralph Lauren” and “Ralph Lauren dress” spiked after the Instagram post.

— Sabrina Escobar and Janet H. Cho

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner