Nvidia, OpenAI Advances Power Next Leg of AI Rally. How to Play It.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The biggest figures of the artificial-intelligence boom are both taking victory laps. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and OpenAI’s Sam Altman have plenty to celebrate, but it’s still the chip maker chief who looks best placed.

Nvidia just missed out on a $5 trillion valuation at yesterday’s close but is on track to surpass it today. Its semiconductors power everything from robo-taxis to drug discovery. And it’s not just flashy deals with no substance—Huang said Tuesday that Nvidia foresees up to $500 billion in revenue from its cutting-edge chips through 2026. Selling the picks and shovels, the hardware to deliver the AI gold rush is going to be profitable for a while yet.

OpenAI’s Altman can feel nearly as pleased. A successful conversion of the ChatGPT-developer to a more traditional corporate structure is set to unlock billions more in funding. A huge public listing could come as soon as 2027, according to The Wall Street Journal. But Altman had to give up a few things—backer Microsoft gets a 27% stake, plus an additional $250 billion for its cloud-computing services.

That’s a reminder hardware and infrastructure stocks are still where the profits are for now. ChatGPT might have 800 million users but OpenAI needs to find ways to monetize them or it will be inflating a cloud-computing bubble it can never afford to fund. Its integration with PayPal points the way toward a future where AI agents are buying the kids’ Christmas presents online. But it’s too late for this holiday season.

If you need clues as to where the power lies, just look at Huang’s next stop on his travels—South Korea to attend the summit where President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet Thursday. If a trade deal allows Nvidia to resume sales of its chips to China, the celebrations for the company and its suppliers will look more like a Roman triumph.

—Adam Clark

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As Trump-Xi Meeting Nears, Assessing the Chess Board

President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to emerge from their meeting Thursday with a plan to stabilize the two countries’ frayed relationship and possibly a deal that includes lowering tariffs imposed by the U.S. fentanyl crackdown. But it’s unclear how quickly a deal can be implemented.

• Andy Rothman, head of China-focused research firm Sinology, expects a very modest deal, with China agreeing to continue shipments of critical rare earth elements and defer new restrictions and the U.S. promising to not increase tariffs further or to extend its own export restrictions on advanced technology.
• But there is also possibly a sweeter deal that includes Beijing doing more to curb the sale of chemicals used to make the drug fentanyl, resuming its purchase of American soybeans, or approving ByteDance’s divestment of TikTok’s U.S. operation, if Trump is willing to deepen concessions, Rothman says.
• One possible concession could be a suspension of some of the tariffs imposed because of fentanyl to assess progress on China’s efforts, says David Meale, who leads Eurasia Group’s China practice and is a former State Department official. That could boost stocks in the U.S. and China.
• For the U.S. to win on soybean purchases and assurances on rare earths, it could rescind some export controls on tech —or allow China to buy more advanced chips from Nvidia. It could also stop pressuring third countries in Asia and Europe to curtail their business with China.

What’s Next: FBI Director Kash Patel is expected to travel to China next month, possibly allowing for some sort of tariff deal related to fentanyl. Cutting those 20% tariffs could complicate things by lowering the current tariffs to be in line with or lower than some southeast Asian countries.

— Reshma Kapadia

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Nvidia’s Market Value Nears $5 Trillion. The CEO Shares Outlook.

Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang appeared at the chip maker’s technology conference in Washington to talk about the importance of building artificial intelligence infrastructure inside the U.S. His remarks and the many deals announced using Nvidia chips sent the company’s market value to nearly $5 trillion.

• Nvidia’s Blackwell AI platform is in full production in Arizona, a nod to President Trump’s cajoling of industry to bring manufacturing back onshore. Huang told attendees that Nvidia has visibility into more than $500 billion in cumulative revenue from Blackwell over the next five quarters, not counting China.
• Huang also said Nvidia was making inroads in quantum computing, unveiling a new interconnect technology called NVQLink. It’s a high-speed interconnect linking quantum processors to GPUs and CPUs for error correction. Huang said 17 quantum computing companies have pledged to support it.
• Separately, Nvidia announced a $1 billion stake in Nokia, about 2.9% and named Nokia a partner for commercial-grade AI networking. It will enable Nokia and other telecommunications firms to roll out AI-native 5G-Advanced and 6G networks through Nvidia’s platform.
• Huang also announced a new deal with Uber Technologies and Stellantis in which the companies will build a fleet of 100,000 autonomous robo-taxis powered by Nvidia technology. They’re scheduled to hit the road in 2027.

What’s Next: Huang’s outlook puts Qualcomm’s entry into the AI chip market into perspective. The Nvidia conference continues today, but Huang is likely thinking about Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi on Thursday, when potential sales of U.S.-made AI chips to China is expected to be on the agenda.

— Tae Kim and Liz Moyer

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U.S. Throws Weight Behind Nuclear Power In Westinghouse Deal

The Commerce Department is throwing its weight behind the nuclear power industry and Japan’s pledge to spend billions of dollars on American infrastructure and energy projects, joining with two U.S. companies to finance and facilitate approvals for $80 billion in nuclear reactors powered by Westinghouse Electric technology.

• Brookfield Asset Management and Cameco are the two U.S. companies involved. Brookfield said the $80 billion was connected with Japan’s commitment to spend $550 billion in the U.S., including up to $100 billion in Westinghouse large and small-scale reactors. Brookfield owns 51% of Westinghouse, and Cameco owns 49%.
• JP Morgan analyst Mark Strouse estimates that the $80 billion investment could finance up to eight large-scale nuclear reactors, and expects the deal to generate cash long term because each reactor will require decades of fuel and maintenance, ensuring recurring revenue for Westinghouse and its owners.
• The U.S. government will receive 20% of cash distributions over $17.5 billion made by Westinghouse after the $80 billion investment. If a Westinghouse initial public offering is valued at $30 billion or more by January 2029, the government can require an IPO and receive a 20% equity stake.
• It wasn’t clear if the U.S. government would also commit funds toward the $80 billion. “Many details need to be finalized,” a Cameco spokesperson told Barron’s, saying the parties expect to negotiate definitive agreements.

What’s Next: Google has agreed to buy power from a closed nuclear plant in Iowa majority-owned by NextEra Energy, a utility and renewable-energy developer, to help power its data centers. The reactor is expected to reopen in 2029, pending required approvals. Terms weren’t disclosed.

— Avi Salzman, Nate Wolf, and Janet H. Cho

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PayPal Gets a Lift From OpenAI Deal

It isn’t just the Magnificent Seven that are benefiting from deals with OpenAI. PayPal stock climbed on Tuesday after the fintech unveiled a partnership with the ChatGPT developer, as well as topping Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations and raising its guidance for the year.

• PayPal’s latest results broadly beat projections. Adjusted earnings of $1.34 a share topped analysts’ calls for $1.20 a share. Net revenue grew 6% to $8.4 billion, surpassing the $8.2 billion Wall Street had expected.
• PayPal boosted its full-year guidance, saying it now expects adjusted earnings in the range of $5.35 to $5.95 a share, up from $5.15 to $5.30 previously. The company declared a cash dividend of 14 cents a share, which will be payable on Dec. 10 to stockholders of record as of Nov. 19.
• Also on Tuesday, the company unveiled a collaboration with OpenAI that will allow users to check out through ChatGPT using PayPal and support payment processing for merchants who use OpenAI’s Instant Checkout feature.
• Shares were up 12% at one point on Tuesday, putting them on pace for their best day in more than three years, although they later gave up some gains, closing 3.9% higher.

What’s Next: PayPal CEO Alex Chriss, who took the helm in 2023, is piloting a turnaround strategy that involves doing away with low-profit, unbranded businesses. Certain hurdles remain, though. The company faces a challenging growth environment in Europe, specifically Germany, and tariff changes between the U.S. and China could still have an impact.

— Mackenzie Tatananni and George Glover

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Bird Flu’s Reemergence Threatens Egg, Turkey Prices Ahead of Thanksgiving

Bird flu faded from the headlines in recent months but it’s coming back, and just in time for the holidays. Farm outbreaks are rising as migrating flocks spread infection across commercial poultry operations. While not as bad as 2024’s outbreak that spiked egg prices, it’s a similar pattern.

• Outbreaks in nearly 90 U.S. chicken and turkey flocks have forced farmers to destroy 7.4 million birds since early September, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data analyzed by Barron’s. Poultry farm outbreaks last October and November caused cases to explode in the winter.
• Last year’s outbreaks forced the destruction of 23.2 million birds in January 2025, sent egg prices soaring to a record $6.23 a dozen by March, and raised fears of a new human pandemic. Egg prices were down to $3.49 a dozen in September, but infections could reverse that.
• No new U.S. human cases have been found since January, and bird flu infections on dairy farms have dropped from their 2024 peak, with one identified at an Idaho dairy farm on Oct. 10. The Trump administration canceled measures designed to prepare for a human pandemic, including vaccine funding.
• Since February 2022, U.S. farmers have killed more than 182 million captive birds because of bird flu infections. In September, 3.9 million birds were killed, and 3.5 million birds have been killed so far this month as of data available on Oct. 27.

What’s Next: Turkey prices are also a concern heading into November. This year’s average price for a wholesale frozen bird is projected to be $1.32 a pound, significantly up from last year’s 94 cents a pound, the USDA said last month. The estimate wasn’t updated in October because of the government shutdown.

— Josh Nathan-Kazis and Janet H. Cho

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Dear Quentin,

I have quite a bit of money in a mutual fund, which has done well due to the amount of tech stocks and others that have appreciated significantly. This fund is not in a retirement account. I’m convinced there will be a significant decline in the S&P 500 in the near future.

I have a considerable amount of unrealized capital gains in this fund and can’t decide whether selling some or all of it and paying the taxes makes sense, or if I should wait through the coming decline. I am 78 and retired. My wife and I have an income of $200,000 due to IRA withdrawals.

— Heavy in Tech

Read the Moneyist’s response here.

— Quentin Fottrell

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Rupert Steiner