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Nvidia Stock Slips From Record High. OpenAI Deal Raises These Questions.

Sep 23, 2025 07:04:00 -0400 by Elsa Ohlen | #Chips

Nvidia is the world’s most valuable company, with a market capitalization of nearly $4.5 trillion. (Dreamstime)

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Nvidia’s $100 billion OpenAI deal has been cheered by investors and analysts alike.

But Wall Street hasn’t exactly rushed to hike price targets on the AI chip maker or upgrade estimates.

Nvidia shares slid 1.3% to $181.11 in early trading Tuesday after the stock hit a record closing high of $183.61, up 3.9% on the day. The move came after the company announced plans to invest as much as $100 billion in ChatGPT maker OpenAI to support the buildout of AI data center capacity.

The world’s leading maker of artificial intelligence chips, Nvidia , is making an increasingly large footprint in the broader AI ecosystem with its latest partnership with OpenAI—just days after announcing a multibillion-dollar deal with Intel .

As part of the agreement, OpenAI would deploy some 10 gigawatts of AI data centers using Nvidia systems, including millions of its graphic processing units (GPUs) and other products.

“For Nvidia, this [is] an opportunity to leverage its strong balance sheet and cash position to help grow the broader AI ecosystem and potentially accelerate demand for its chips and hardware systems,” said William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji in a note dated Monday.

While analysts were broadly positive on the news, many still held on to their estimates.

“Although we are encouraged by the agreement, we are not adjusting our model higher at this time as the incremental benefits are yet unclear,” Benchmark analyst Cody Acree said, maintaining a Buy rating on the stock with a $220 price target. “We have always counted OpenAI as a significant customer in our estimates, with plans for a material increase in the company’s data center capacity already considered.”

D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria maintained a Buy rating and kept his price target at $210. “While the announcement is positive for OpenAI’s ability to ramp, we are concerned NVDA has become the ‘investor of last resort’, bailing out OpenAI’s overextended commitments,” he said.

Several analysts see the deal as translating to a $400 billion to $500 billion return of Nvidia revenue.

“While timing will, to a large degree, depend on OpenAI’s ramp plan, we estimate this deal ultimately translates into ~$400B of NVDA revenue over a multi-year period,” UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri said in a note Monday.

But that wasn’t enough for him to increase his price target of $205. “Net, this is essentially a new opportunity in Nvidia’s long term revenue forecast but part of the broader TAM (total addressable market) that it had already provided.”

Write to Elsa Ohlen at elsa.ohlen@barrons.com