OpenAI Is Pushing the Market Toward Bubble Territory. What It Means for Stocks.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)

Only time will tell if the artificial intelligence boom is a bubble. But OpenAI is intent on pushing the boundaries of what the market is willing to finance and that’s raising the risks.

Its latest dea l with chip designer Broadcom on top of agreements with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, brings its estimated spending to more than $1 trillion. That feels ambitious but just about feasible, considering OpenAI’s $500 billion valuation and potential to monetize 800 million users of ChatGPT.

OpenAI has $100 billion available in investment from Nvidia, has yet to seriously tap debt markets, and can count on backing from the Trump administration and other governments. Custom-made chips from Broadcom should mean cheaper computing and the deals aren’t firm commitments—the amounts, currently estimated, could come down.

But at some point the math stops making sense. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees he would like 250 gigawatts of new computing capacity by 2033, implying a cost of more than $10 trillion, according to The Wall Street Journal. That stretches credibility—total global venture-capital investment in 2024 came to $368 billion, KPMG estimates.

If OpenAI falls short of its lofty goals, that would deal a major blow to the AI trend. But it wouldn’t necessarily bring the whole AI house down, with plenty of other big spenders out there. Broadcom noted that a previous $10 billion chip order wasn’t with OpenAI as previously assumed. Meanwhile, Alphabet’s Google has unveiled $24 billion in AI investment plans in the U.S. and India already this week.

As a private company, OpenAI doesn’t have to justify its spending to the markets but the danger is that it will force public rivals such as Meta Platforms and Microsoft into a competition that will send costs spiraling. Expect further details on that when technology earnings drop in the final week of October. Investor enthusiasm may well have peaked.

— Adam Clark

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OpenAI Strikes Another Chip Deal. This Time It’s Broadcom.

ChatGPT’s maker OpenAI has struck yet another arrangement with a chip maker, in this case Broadcom. They plan to jointly develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom artificial-intelligence accelerators from the second half of 2026 through 2029 as the start-up fuels its enormous computing needs.

• OpenAI is developing its own graphics processing units with Broadcom, while the chip maker is providing the Ethernet and other connectivity for OpenAI’s facilities and those run by third parties. Terms weren’t disclosed but the deal could be billions of dollars, The Wall Street Journal reported.
• Broadcom was already in the spotlight after saying last month it had secured $10 billion in AI orders from a new qualified customer, which analysts believed was OpenAI. Broadcom President Charlie Kawwas on Monday told CNBC he hasn’t received a $10 billion order from OpenAI.
• OpenAI has deals with Oracle to buy $300 billion in computing power; an arrangement with Oracle and the Trump administration to invest $500 billion for 10 gigawatts of AI operations capacity; an investment of up to $100 billion from Nvidia; and a deal with Advanced Micro Devices.
• Broadcom’s expertise is designing custom AI chips meant for certain AI applications. It has been working on custom chip with OpenAI since last year. OpenAI executives have said that with soaring demand for AI products, they are aiming to build giant new data centers.

What’s Next: Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said on a podcast that the AI buildout is similar to the railroad and the internet because it will provide critical infrastructure to the economy. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said he believes there is demand with current AI models to “saturate” 30 gigawatts of capacity.

— Angela Palumbo, Tae Kim, and Janet H. Cho

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Surging Gold Prices Spur Concerns About a Potential Crash

Investors normally don’t talk about the risks of a bubble forming in the asset that they’re buying to hedge against a different bubble, in this case the potential for an AI bubble, but gold’s extraordinary price surge is triggering concerns among investors about the yellow metal’s bullish prospects.

• Gold prices rose 3.2% to a record $4,129.60 on Monday, and have gained more than 55% this year. Gold surpassed $3,000 per-ounce this spring and topped $4,000 for the first time ever last month. Silver also surged Monday to its first record since 1980.
• Driving the surge is the slumping U.S. dollar, soaring tech stocks concentrating broader market risks into a handful of megacap tech names, central banks’ buying gold to diversify away from the dollar, and renewed inflation risks related to ongoing tariff and trade disputes.
• Gold’s ascent to $5000 seems increasingly inevitable, says Mike Haigh, head of Société Générale’s commodity research group, citing both strong gold-backed ETF flows and renewed central bank purchases. He pegged his $5,000 price target for the end of 2026.
• Bank of America analyst Paul Ciana cautioned recently that prices are pivoting near round-number levels. Citing data showing “midway corrections” in long term gold bull markets, Ciana sees the chances for a near-term pullback akin to the mid-1970s and 2008.

What’s Next: Ciana notes this latest surge is about a decade old and smaller than the run-up in the 70s and 00s. But that warrants caution “into round number resistance at $4,000, or again later at $5,000,” he said.

— Martin Baccardax and Janet H. Cho

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JPMorgan’s Plan to Invest $10 Billion in Critical U.S. Industries

JPMorgan is piling in on what it views as critical to protecting U.S. security, with plans to invest up to $10 billion as part of a broader $1.5 trillion initiative. It is the latest big company commitment as the Trump administration touts patriotic efforts by the private sector.

• The nation’s largest bank said it would make direct equity and venture capital investments as part of a decadelong plan that it calls the Security and Resiliency Initiative, aimed at facilitating and financing investments in defense and aerospace, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, and quantum computing.
• Longtime CEO Jamie Dimon says it’s a commercial endeavor not driven by the current administration in Washington, and he hadn’t talked to anyone in government about it. They plan to “scour the United States—and maybe the world—for new opportunities,” Dimon said.
• Autonomous mobile robots, nuclear energy, solar, spacecraft, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence are among subsectors it is initially targeting. It is hiring bankers, investment professionals, and other experts to support the investments.
• JPMorgan’s announcement builds on years of its investments in the U.S. economy under different administrations, economic conditions, and political backdrops. The White House has touted recent private sector investments, including pledges to build manufacturing in the U.S.

What’s Next: On Monday, after a reporter questioned Dimon about whether the bank’s plans would subject it to new areas of regulation or oversight, Dimon said, “I hope not.”

— Rebecca Ungarino

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Third-Quarter Earnings Expectations Are Running High

Third-quarter earnings season arrives this week, with roughly 12% of the S&P 500 reporting amid high expectations. Typically, analysts get nervous about their third-quarter earnings per share forecasts and start cutting them. That didn’t happen this year. September’s market rally was helped by the lack of estimate cuts.

• Analysts normally would have cut between 3% and 4% to their estimates since the end of June, but this was the first year since 2023 that that didn’t happen, notes Bank of America’s Equity and Quant Strategist Savita Subramanian on Monday.
• Still, the third quarter is unlikely to match the second quarter’s big 7% beat, and there are ongoing concerns about the effect of tariffs on corporate profits. They could translate into layoffs that would hurt consumer spending.
• Tech spending on artificial intelligence also has been a boon to markets, but now that even big firms like Oracle are taking on debt to fund capital spending, some are worried that gravy train may be slowing. Subramanian is still modeling for a 4% beat in the third quarter.
• Citi’s Scott Chronert agrees. The first and second quarters were marked by big beats as the effects of tariffs were delayed or minimized, and consensus estimates haven’t drifted lower as usual on hopes tax changes will offset trade pain. He, too, is looking for a more normal 3% to 4% beat.

What’s Next: Things are looking up for next year as well. “Early consensus estimates for 2026 S&P 500 EPS are moving higher,” Chronert wrote in a recent note. “That is oddly positive. Normally, out year consensus estimates start too high and are revised persistently lower.”

— Teresa Rivas

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SpaceX’s 11th Test of Starship Boosts Space Stocks

SpaceX completed the 11th test of its Starship launch system late Monday. Taking off from Starbase, Texas, the rocket flew for about an hour before splash landing in the Indian Ocean, according to plan.

• There is hope for a so-called halo effect from SpaceX’s Starship test flights, and it has boosted the shares of several space-technology start-ups.
• Shares of Rocket Lab, which provides launch and satellite services; communications satellite operator AST SpaceMobile; and Earth imaging company Planet Labs have all more than doubled in price so far this year.
• There have been highs and lows since test launches of the Starship began in April 2023. Significantly, SpaceX managed to catch the lower half of the rocket on its return to Earth, allowing it to easily be reused. But a Starship recently exploded on a testing stand, damaging SpaceX’s infrastructure.

What’s Next: It’s difficult for regular investors to invest in SpaceX because it is a privately held company, but its success has helped space start-ups access capital and grow. Space stocks gained popularity in 2025 as the Trump administration said it wants commercial companies to provide services to NASA, instead of the agency building and operating space systems on its own.

— Al Root and Elsa Ohlen

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner