Orange Juice Prices Have Spiked. A 50% Brazil Tariff Will Lift Them Even Higher.

Containers of orange juice are displayed on a grocery store shelf in San Anselmo, Calif. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Orange juice prices are spiking, making breakfast a more costly meal.

The average price of a 64-ounce container of orange juice rose 8.5% to $4.48 compared with last year, based on 2025 data through June from Datasembly. But Trump’s potential tariff bump effective Aug. 1—a jump from the initial 10% rate enacted on Brazilian imports back in early April—could accelerate these price hikes.

While companies can absorb some of the costs in the short term, permanent tariffs could lead to cost increases passed along to consumers in the long run, says David Ortega, food economics and policy chair at Michigan State University.

“If the tariffs remain in place for a considerable amount of time, say a few months, then you could start to see the price increase in a few months’ time,” he told Barron’s. “But if there’s this on and off thing like we’ve been seeing, it becomes a lot harder to forecast when—that’s the million dollar question—this is all going to hit prices.”

Orange juice production in Florida—the U.S.’ main citrus producer—has plummeted over the past two decades. Hurricane Milton, which hit last October, caused significant damage to Florida’s citrus industry, marking the state’s third major tropical storm within the past eight years. The spread of diseases by pests on citrus farms, known as citrus greening, has also led to premature fruit drops and unripe fruits. To combat this, citrus growers have had to increase tree immune response to protect younger trees, which has led to rising production costs.

Orange juice production is expected to reach 108.3 million gallons this year, marking a 22% decrease from last season and the lowest level since at least 1970-71, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report from March.

Poor domestic production has led to an increased demand for imports, particularly from Brazil, the leading global exporter of orange juice. Last year’s drought there damaged the orange crop, forcing the juice industry into an early harvest with smaller oranges. This along with the planned tariffs could make Brazil a less attractive substitute, forcing U.S. companies to source from other countries like Mexico.

Prices of frozen orange-juice concentrate have also fluctuated over the past few months. Frozen orange-juice concentrate futures have jumped 27.3% from five days ago, and they are on pace for the largest five-day gain since April 15, according to Dow Jones Market Data. These higher futures translate into higher prices consumers see at grocery stores.

But U.S. consumers have been drinking less fruit juice since the turn of the 21st century. Total fruit juice intake in the U.S. dropped nearly 51% from 0.425 cup equivalents per person a day in 2003-04 to 0.210 cup equivalents per person a day in 2017-18, according to a February 2025 report from the USDA.

Orange juice is one of many staple products affected by food inflation. Since this year, egg prices have soared after an avian flu pandemic led to a supply shortage. Beef prices have also climbed this year: the average price of ground beef rose 11.5% to $6.25 a pound in May from a year earlier. “Consumers are stretched very thin when it comes to the cost of food,” says Ortega.

So, it might be worth trying a different juice at the grocery store. Michael Walden, agricultural and resource economics professor emeritus at North Carolina State University, recommends apple juice. “Although apple juice prices have also been rising, the increase has been more modest than for orange juice,” he told Barron’s.

But orange juice lovers will still feel the souring costs. “When we think of orange juice, it’s usually what a lot of Americans have in the morning,” says Ortega. “It’s going to have a pretty significant impact across many households that consume this staple breakfast product.”

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