Pfizer CEO Defends Vaccines, Promises Growth by End of Decade

Pfizer projects a drop in revenue and earnings in 2026. (Courtesy of Pfizer)

Key Points

• Pfizer projects 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 to $3, below analysts’ consensus of $3.06.
• The drugmaker forecasts 2026 revenue between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion.
• Expects Covid-19 product revenue for 2026 of $5 billion, a reduction from the $6.5 billion anticipated in 2025.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla called vaccine skepticism in the highest levels of the federal government “an anomaly” during an investor call on Tuesday.

“We will continue investing in vaccines because, as I said, this is an anomaly that will correct itself, I hope pretty soon,” Bourla said.

Pfizer shares were down 4.9% Tuesday to $25.13 after the company issued 2026 guidance that came in slightly below expectations and said it expects a return to growth at the end of the decade.

Bourla’s comments on vaccines come as the company’s reliance on vaccine sales remains a lingering concern for investors, particularly amid a challenging political environment in which U.S. public health agencies are led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic.

In recent weeks, a senior Food and Drug Administration official said in an internal memo that Covid-19 vaccines may have been linked to the deaths of at least 10 children, and an influential committee advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention voted to break with longstanding guidance recommending that all newborns receive a hepatitis B vaccine.

Bourla did not comment specifically on either development. He did, however, allude to recent comments about vaccines from the FDA and the CDC, saying they “don’t have merit.”

Vaccines “are an essential part of any health-care system,” Bourla said. “They are the most cost-effective intervention to prevent illness in the world, and that will continue.”

Bourla’s comments came as the company rolled out guidance for 2026. As the drugmaker braces for a long-anticipated wave of patent expirations affecting some of its top-selling products, Pfizer on Tuesday laid out near-term guidance and Bourla said the company is focused on “ensuring that we return to growth in the [2029] and [2030] time frame.”

Pfizer expects to lose $17 billion in annual revenue to patent expirations by 2030—a risk investors have long known, but one the company has struggled to offset despite spending tens of billions of dollars on acquisitions.

Pfizer on Tuesday forecast 2026 revenue of $59.5 billion to $62.6 billion, roughly in line with consensus, while earnings guidance of $2.80 to $3 a share came in slightly below expectations.

Analysts said Tuesday that the lower-than-expected earnings guidance wasn’t a major worry. The company said two recent deals will weigh on 2026 earnings by about 22 cents a share. Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger on Tuesday wrote that the consensus estimates ahead of the guidance had not fully accounted for those deals.

Pfizer stock was roughly flat this year as of the end of the day on Monday, but down about 50% over the past three years, lagging behind the broader market and health-care peers.

After demand for Covid-19 vaccines faded in 2023, Pfizer once again found itself facing a wave of patent expirations between 2026 and 2029, including blockbusters such as Ibrance and Eliquis. The company has spent heavily to replace those products, including $43 billion for cancer biotech Seagen in 2023 and $7 billion up front for obesity-focused Metsera earlier this year.

Investors appear to remain unconvinced. On a call Tuesday, executives said that the company is positioned to return to growth. “We believe we are well-positioned for [2029] and [2030] to become growth years for Pfizer,” Bourla said, adding that the first Metsera product could launch in 2028.

“We are laser focused to bring growth post-28 to this company,” Bourla said. “And by the end of the decade, to have strong growth.”

For 2026, Pfizer expects sales of its Covid-19 products, the antiviral Paxlovid and the vaccine Comirnaty, to fall to roughly $5 billion from roughly $6.5 billion this year.

CFO David Denton said Paxlovid sales will decline more than Comirnaty’s in 2026, noting that Paxlovid demand remains volatile while Comirnaty is a more predictable, though shrinking, revenue stream.

Overall revenue is expected to decline 1.6% year over year, though Denton said revenue excluding Covid-19 products and drugs facing patent expirations would rise 4%. On earnings, Pfizer expects a 60-cent-per-share hit from declining Covid-19 sales, patent expirations, and deal-related costs, partially offset by a 45-cent-per-share benefit from new products and cost cuts.

The company said it remains on track to deliver most of the $7.2 billion in cost cuts it is targeting by 2026. In late September, Pfizer struck a deal with the Trump administration that will exempt the company from sector-specific tariffs for three years in return for certain narrow concessions on pricing.

“It relieves a significant headwind,” Denton said Tuesday, adding that the new guidance incorporates lower prices for Medicaid patients, though he declined to break those numbers out.

Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at josh.nathan-kazis@barrons.com and Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com