Want a Partridge for Your Pear Tree? Get Ready to Pay Up.

(Illustration by Elias Stein)

Each year, PNC Financial Services tallies the real-world cost of all the gifts in “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” from the partridge to the pipers, to build a whimsical but surprisingly telling inflation gauge.

This year’s index rose 4.5% to $51,476.12, running slightly faster than the current pace of inflation and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate.

The most dramatic move came from five gold rings, up 32.5% to $1,649.90. Retailers had been “eating some of the margin pressure” as gold prices jumped in recent years, says Amanda Agati, PNC Asset Management Group’s chief investment officer. But they finally passed costs through as investors poured into precious metals.

The Cost of Giving

Prices changes for the items in

Note: % change between 2024 and 2025

Source: PNC

The pear tree (home to the partridge), which PNC likes to treat as a stand-in for the housing market, climbed 14.3% to $420.18. It mirrors a national picture in which housing supply remains tight, says Agati.

Services-heavy items such as dancers and drummers also saw modest increases in contract rates, consistent with stickier services inflation across the economy. But the eight maids-a-milking remain frozen in time at $58: Their cost hasn’t risen since the federal minimum wage last did in 2009.

PNC, just like the government, also publishes a “core” Christmas Price Index, excluding volatile swan prices. The core measure posted a whopping 6.1% gain this year.

Email: [Nicole Goodkind at nicole.goodkind@barrons.com](mailto:Nicole Goodkind at nicole.goodkind@barrons.com)

Last Week

Markets

Thanksgiving and Black Friday couldn’t come fast enough. Peace talks over Ukraine looked more upbeat, despite a kerfuffle over a Russian plan forwarded to Kyiv. Stocks advanced on Monday, fueled by Alphabet, riding its new Gemini 3 artificial-intelligence model. The rally continued on Tuesday on a report by The Information that Meta Platforms was talking to Alphabet, rather than Nvidia, about a big buy of AI chips. Renewed hopes for a December rate cut drove indexes higher. On the holiday-shortened week, the Dow industrials were up tk%; the S&P 500, tk%; and the Nasdaq Composite, tk%.

Companies

Wicked: For Good, from Comcast’s Universal, racked up $150 million in domestic box office on its first weekend, second-busiest opener of 2025. Alphabet shares neared $4 trillion in market value. Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic failed to slow progression of Alzheimer’s. The administration negotiated lower prices on 15 drugs for Medicare in 2027, including 71% off on Novo’s Wegovy and Ozempic. With over 95% of companies reporting third-quarter earnings, S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth is coming in at 13%, above the 7.4% consensus forecast.

Deals

BHP Group walked from an Anglo American takeover bid after a second attempt to break up Anglo’s roughly $50 billion merger with Teck Resources…Bloomberg reported that Warner Bros. Discovery asked Paramount Skydance, Netflix, and Comcast to submit sweetened bids by Dec. 1.

Next Week

Tuesday 12/2

With the holiday shopping season officially under way, another wave of retailers will offer Wall Street updates on quarterly results. American Eagle Outfitters will report on Tuesday, followed by Dollar Tree and Five Below on Wednesday. Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, and Kroger will go on Thursday. Victoria’s Secret wraps up the week on Friday.

Wednesday 12/3

Salesforce headlines this week’s earnings slate on Wednesday. Other tech and software firms reporting include MongoDB and Credo Technology on Monday; CrowdStrike Holdings, Marvell Technology, Pure Storage, Okta, GitLab, and Box on Tuesday; Snowflake on Wednesday; and SentinelOne on Thursday.

Friday 12/5

Wall Street will get a double dose of inflation data on Friday. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures price index for September. The consensus estimate is for a 2.8% year-over-year increase, compared with a 2.7% annual increase in August. The University of Michigan will also provide an update on year-ahead inflation expectations when it releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for December. Consumers ended November expecting prices to rise 4.5% in the year ahead.

The Numbers

25%

Percentage of unemployed Americans over 25 with a four-year college degree, a record high.

110%

Stock performance of Chinese biotechs this year, compared with around 20% for U.S. biotechs.

17.9%

Percentage of tradable Moderna shares sold short, a sharp turnabout from its Covid-era star status.

$200 T

PwC’s estimate of global fund industry assets under management by 2030, up from a recent $139 trillion.

Write to Robert Teitelman at bob.teitelman@dowjones.com