Discounters and Resale Platforms Lead the Retail Pack in Resilient Holiday Season

U.S. retail sales, excluding automotive, increased 3.9% year over year from Nov. 1 through Dec. 21. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• US retail sales, excluding automotive, increased 3.9% year over year from November 1 through December 21, indicating solid consumer demand.
• Online traffic for Walmart and Target grew approximately 14% year over year, reflecting strong performance for value-oriented retailers.
• Discount and dollar stores, wholesale clubs, and off-price retailers saw increased foot traffic, with several discounters’ stocks gaining over 48% in 2025.

Americans might have waited until the last minute to wrap up their holiday shopping, but a nearly 4% rise in total holiday sales suggests consumer demand remained on solid footing.

That is helping boost retail stocks toward the end of the year.

U.S. retail sales, excluding automotive, increased 3.9% year over year from Nov. 1 through Dec. 21, according to the latest data from Mastercard SpendingPulse.

Last-minute gift shopping could drive up final sales figures.

Super Saturday—the last Saturday before Christmas—saw store visits across retail rise 21.8% compared with the average foot traffic of the six preceding Saturdays, according to data from Placer.ai. Compared with a year ago, total retail foot traffic ticked up 0.2%.

People continued to shop right up until Christmas Eve. Mall visits rose 20.3% on Dec. 24 from a week prior, according to data from MRI Software, a data provider that measures foot traffic, and 0.1% from the prior year.

“Malls across the U.S. saw a significant rise in pedestrian traffic week over week on Christmas Eve, suggesting that people buying last-minute presents appreciate the efficiencies that malls provide,” wrote Carla Hinson, vice president of solution and innovation at MRI Software.

Online shopping was on track to end the season on a strong note, as well. Evercore ISI’s web traffic tracker suggests that visits to retailers’ websites turned positive in the days leading up to Christmas. Among large-cap retailers, Walmart and Target posted the strongest holiday-period gains, each growing online traffic about 14% year over year, Evercore found.

“Web traffic data point to a solid Holiday season, characterized by a late-year inflection and share gains for value-oriented, promotionally effective retailers,” wrote Oliver Wintermantel, an analyst at Evercore, in a research note earlier this week.

Americans have always loved a good deal, bu t many are even more value-driven this year. Low- and middle-income households, especially, have been hurt by the recent federal shutdown, tariff-related price increases, and a slowing labor market, and were expected to spend less during the holidays this year.

Foot traffic trends reflect that search for value. Discount and dollar stores, wholesale clubs, off-price retailers, and thrift stores were some of the most visited stores on Super Saturday, Placer.ai found.

“Shoppers have shown themselves to be more discerning this holiday season, and Super Saturday was a key example of consumers being more selective in their final shopping trips before the holiday,” noted Elizabeth Lafontaine, director of research at Placer.ai.

By all accounts, markets accounted for budget-sensitive consumers this year. Discounters and dollar stores were some of the best-performing stocks in the State Street SPDR S&P Retai l exchange-traded fund, also known by its ticker, XRT, this year. Shares of the online secondhand store ThredUp were the XRT’s top performer, gaining 355% through Wednesday’s close, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Discounters Five Below, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Kohl’s, and The RealReal also made the top 10 performers in the index, their stocks all gaining more than 48% so far in 2025.

The XRT itself gained about 10% this year through Wednesday’s close, boosted by a late November rally that has extended beyond the main shopping holidays.

A few things helped drive discretionary stocks higher over the past month, wrote Carey Kaufman, consumer strategist at Jefferies, including better-than-expected earnings reports from retailers, an acceleration in holiday sales, and low valuations across the sector that made retail stocks appealing.

Investors are also hoping that 2026 will bring about an acceleration in consumer spending, buoyed by new tax benefits and lower interest rates. If those perks do materialize, the holiday rally could be less of a season finale, and more of an opening act.

Write to Sabrina Escobar at sabrina.escobar@barrons.com