Rivian Stock Rises Despite Sell Call. ‘Headwinds’ Are Coming for EV Sales.

A Rivian R1R electric truck. (Paige Taylor White/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• Mizuho Securities downgraded Rivian Automotive to Sell from Hold, lowering its price target to $10 a share from $14.
• Analyst Vijay Rakesh forecasts 60,000 EV deliveries for Rivian in 2026, down from a prior call of 68,000.
• The percentage of analysts rating Rivian shares as Buy has decreased to 30% from almost 50% at the start of the year.

Pain for U.S. electric vehicle makers is only beginning with the recent elimination of the $7,500 federal purchase tax credit. Investors should be wary, says Mizuho Securities.

Sunday, analyst Vijay Rakesh downgraded shares of Rivian Automotive to Sell from Hold. His target for the price went to $10 a share from $14.

Rivian stock traded as low as $12.66, before closing at $13.08, up 0.4%. The market helped some. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both gained about 1.1%.

“We see headwinds in 2026 with softer EV [sales] in North America,” wrote Rakesh, noting that General Motors recently took a $1.6 billion charge to write down the value of its EV assets, “signalling broader EV weakness.”

The loss of the credit will result either in lower EV sales volumes, or lower EV prices, which pressure EV profitability, or a combination of both. Rivian didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Wall Street sentiment regarding Rivian has been sliding for a while. Overall, 30% of analysts covering Rivian shares rate them Buy, according to FactSet, while the ratio was almost 50% at the start of the year. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%.

A downgrade to Sell doesn’t change the Buy-rating ratio. It changes the Sell-rating ratio. Now, 15% of analysts covering the stock rate shares Sell. The average Sell-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is closer to 10%.

The average analyst price target for Rivian stock was about $14 a share, down from closer to $16 at the start of 2025.

Coming into Monday trading, Rivian shares were down about 2% year to date. Slowing EV sales have discouraged investors. Wall Street projects 2025 deliveries of about 43,000 EVs in 2025, down from about 52,000 in 2024.

Deliveries are expected to rise in 2026 as new, lower-priced models hit the streets. While the consensus call among analysts is that Rivian will deliver 75,000 EVs in 2026, Rakesh is forecasting 60,000, down from his prior call of 68,000.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com