Spotify Got a $170 Price-Target Raise. Why the Stock Is Down.

Spotify House at CMA Fest 2025 in Nashville, Tenn. (Rick Kern / Getty Images)

Spotify shares have more than doubled from a year ago, and some Wall Street analysts say the outperformance isn’t over yet.

A team of Raymond James analysts led by Andrew Marok raised their stock-price target for the Swedish streaming platform to $805 from $635, saying they expect its second-quarter financial results to show an increase of 5 million premium subscribers from this year’s first to second quarter.

Still, the continued decline in the U.S. dollar against the euro led the analysts to lower their forecast for second-quarter revenue to €4.25 billion ($4.95 billion), which would leave it below the €4.3 billion Spotify has forecast. The team also reduced its call for earnings per share to €1.67, well below the consensus call for €2.01 on Wall Street.

The problem is that while Europe is Spotify’s largest regional market, accounting for 37% of total premium subscribers, North America and Latin America rank second and third, at 26% and 23%, respectively.

The dollar’s weakness means revenue from North America will be lower in euro terms than it would have been otherwise.

“From a fundamental perspective, however, the business remains healthy, and we believe expectations for continued gross margin and operating margin leverage are likely to be satisfied as the company continues to distance itself from competitors,” the analysts wrote.

The stock slipped nearly 1% to $710.46 on Tuesday. The shares traded during the session as low as $696.66, which was the lowest intraday level since Jun. 13. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%.

Analysts anticipate a total of 273 million subscribers for the second quarter along with 31.5% gross margins, both in line with Spotify’s outlook. The company will report its results before the market opens on July 29.

Spotify still has significant growth potential, the analysts say. “If actual results differ from our expectations, we think upside is more likely than downside, driven by a strong competitive position in a steadily growing market,” they wrote.

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