Stocks Are Loving AI Deals, Government Stakes. Why Markets Need a New Catalyst.

Open AI CEO Sam Altman (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Need a turbocharged stock boost? Get on side with OpenAI, or the Trump administration.

That seems to be the playbook right now as the ongoing government shutdown halts the release of key economic data creating a catalyst vacuum.

OpenAI struck a multibillion-dollar deal with Advanced Micro Devices Monday, which gives the ChatGPT creator the option to buy a 10% stake in the U.S. chip maker. AMD stock jumped 24%—the move played a big part in the S&P 500 extending its winning streak to seven days as more of the index’s companies fell than rose.

It follows Nvidia’s $100 billion OpenAI deal announced last month, which helped the AI chip giant’s stock hit a record high. Nvidia took a hit yesterday on the perceived challenge posed by AMD, but OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the agreement was incremental to its work with Nvidia, adding “the world needs much more compute.”

That demand and OpenAI’s deals are driving the tech and AI boom—boosting stocks, at least for now.

Another catalyst for recent big stock moves is the Trump administration. Canadian miner Trilogy Metal surged 175% in out-of-hours trading after the White House said it was taking a 10% stake in the company. Government stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and Lithium Americas have had a similar impact.

Beyond that, though, the stock market is in limbo. The Federal Reserve, and investors, depend on the delayed data to inform interest-rate policy. Earnings season is also yet to really get going—but it will in the coming days.

The absence of catalysts is reflected in the price of gold as the haven asset hit the $4,000 per ounce level for the first time overnight. Bitcoin also notched a record price Monday, topping $126,000.

Eventually the broader stock market will need something other than AI deals and government stakes for lasting gains. Otherwise the rally will quickly lose power.

—Callum Keown

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OpenAI’s Deal With AMD Makes AI Chip Horse Race More Interesting

The battle for second place in the race for artificial-intelligence chip leadership just got more interesting. Analysts have long wondered whether Broadcom would take that slot after Nvidia, but the size of Advanced Micro Devices’ latest deal with OpenAI gives AMD a leg up.

• OpenAI plans to deploy six gigawatts of AMD Instinct graphics processing units, or GPUs, over the course of the agreement, with the first one gigawatt deployment beginning in the second half of 2026. One nuclear reactor can typically generate one gigawatt of electricity.
• AMD’s long-term deal dwarfs OpenAI’s $10 billion deal with Broadcom. AMD CEO Lisa Su called the deal a “clear validation” of the company’s technology road map and said OpenAI will use AMD chips for both training and inference (generating answers from AI models).
• AMD management expects the OpenAI agreement will allow the company to eventually generate tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue, and over $100 billion in total revenue from selling chips over the next several years.
• Melius Research’s Ben Reitzes said OpenAI’s spending over $1 trillion in infrastructure will spur AI spending by other tech companies, pushing the total addressable market for AI compute and networking to over $2 trillion by 2030. He said it’s hard to imagine that Nvidia wouldn’t get 40%-plus of that.

What’s Next: Wall Street expects Nvidia’s data center revenue to increase from $185 billion this fiscal year ending in January to $300 billion by fiscal 2029. The AMD agreement “is all incremental to our work with NVIDIA (and we plan to increase our NVIDIA purchasing over time),” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said.

— Tae Kim, George Glover, and Janet H. Cho

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Trump Signals Willingness to Cut a Deal as Shutdown Continues

President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to cut a deal with Democrats on a key issue affecting the government funding impasse. Speaking in vague terms to reporters, the president said talks with Democrats were under way and they could lead to “good things” related to healthcare.

• Democratic leaders were quick to dispute what Trump said. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said it wasn’t true, but he added that Democrats were ready to make things happen if Republicans were willing to agree on getting something done on healthcare for Americans.
• A fight over subsidies for healthcare plans under the Affordable Care Act is holding up legislation and keeping the government shut down. Democrats want to extend the subsidies, which expire this year, while Republicans don’t want it in the funding bill. A Senate vote on funding failed again, so the shutdown continues.
• Trump made his remarks during an impromptu reporter Q&A in the Oval Office, an appearance that wasn’t on his official daily schedule. He said he would be willing to make a deal on healthcare subsidies for the 24 million Americans on ACA plans. “If we made the right deal. I’d make a deal, sure.”
• The shutdown is stretching into a full week with neither side appearing to budge. After the Oval Office appearance, Trump took to his social media account to say he’s “happy to work with the Democrats” but first they have to allow the government to reopen.

What’s Next: The Trump administration is looking to cut jobs permanently from the federal workforce if the shutdown continues for a while, after hundreds of thousands of workers were put on furlough. Trump said Monday so far “there hasn’t been a great deal of pain.”

— Liz Moyer and Anita Hamilton

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Tesla Teases a Mystery Event. Investors Speculate.

Tesla investors have spent the past day speculating about what’s up CEO Elon Musk’s sleeve after the electric-vehicle maker teased on social media that it will make a major announcement today, but hasn’t shared details or responded to questions. Possibilities include a new model Y, a roadster, or something wild.

• Tesla posted two short videos on X, which Musk happens to own, one showing vehicle headlights and the other showing a spinning wheel or fan and the date “10/7.” Tesla has previously teased the launch of a more affordable model based on the Y.
• Less-expensive cars could help expand Tesla’s addressable market and boost sales. It has to find some way to offset the Sept. 30 expiration of a $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit that did boost sales in the third quarter as consumers got in on it at the last minute.
• Despite record third-quarter sales, Tesla’s year to date sales are down 6% from the first three-quarters of 2024. Tesla has faced increasing competition in China and slumping sales in Europe. Less-expensive, newer vehicles could shift sales from more-expensive vehicles.
• Investors have also been waiting for the expansion of Tesla’s robo-taxi operation. Tesla started a self-driving cab line in Austin, Texas, in June, and has received permission to test its autonomous cars in other cities, but it hasn’t announced anything about that yet.

What’s Next: Shares of Joby and Archer Aviation, which make electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, rose 7.2% and 18% respectively on Monday amid speculation about a potential agreement with Tesla. Both companies are waiting for regulatory approvals to launch commercial service.

— Al Root, Callum Keown, and Janet H. Cho

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Verizon Taps a Former Fintech Chief to Lead Revival

Verizon Communications has a new CEO as it tries to stop customers from switching to rival carriers. Its lead independent director, Daniel Schulman, is taking the helm as Verizon tries to shake off concerns it’s falling behind in wireless and broadband. Schulman has a background in fintech.

• Schulman once led payments company PayPal. He succeeds Hans Vestberg effective immediately, though Vestberg will be a special advisor for the next year. This is another major managerial transition in telecom after T-Mobile said Srini Gopalan would become CEO on Nov. 1.
• Verizon has struggled to stave off tough competition. Both AT&T and T-Mobile US have been gunning to snatch away home internet and wireless customers. The Trump administration’s deportation drive is another industry challenge as immigrants are significant subscriber additions each year.
• Schulman says they aim to increase market share and value, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing comments he made on an internal call. Verizon recently raised its profit forecast for the year but the number of postpaid phone customers has edged lower for two consecutive quarters.
• Among the steps it has taken was freezing rates for mobile phone customers for three years after sensing their frustration with rising prices. Schulman said in the internal message he wanted to improve share by “consistently delighting” customers.

What’s Next: Verizon reiterated its 2025 financial guidance on Monday. Investors will be paying close attention to any more commentary Verizon has to provide about the leadership transition when the company reports third-quarter earnings on Oct. 29.

— Angela Palumbo and Liz Moyer

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Gold Surges Past $4,000 for the First Time

Gold passed yet another milestone overnight, as the most actively traded futures contract hit $4,000 an ounce for the first time. Don’t expect it to stop shining anytime soon.

• Gold futures reached a record settlement price of $3,976 an ounce on Monday. They briefly topped $4,000 an ounce overnight, before giving up some gains.
• Bullion is now up more than 50% in 2025, good enough for its best run since 1979, when it surged 144%. The gains mean gold prices have effectively doubled over the past two years.
• Political turmoil in three major economies drove the precious metal higher on Monday. France’s government collapsed and Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party elected Sanae Takaichi as the country’s new prime minister, paving the way for freer spending by Tokyo. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown dragged on.
• The prospect that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates has also boosted gold. When borrowing costs are lower, that makes bullion more appealing relative to other safe-haven assets that have yields, such as bonds and savings accounts.

What’s Next: The rally is likely to last because of the uncertain geopolitical environment, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said. “Sanctions and asset freezes have eroded trust in traditional havens—particularly the dollar and U.S. government bonds,” he added.

— Martin Baccardax and George Glover

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner