Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin Are Soaring. This Could Reverse the Market Rally and 5 More Things to Know Today.

The government may still be closed but the U.S. stock market is well and truly open for business.

The S&P 500 is on a six-day winning streak, which includes every trading day of the shutdown and the three sessions building up to it. The index hasn’t climbed for seven straight days since early May. Gold and Bitcoin have also been surging, with both hitting record highs.

So far the assumption has been that, in the absence of official data due to the shutdown, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates when it meets later this month. Traders currently see a 95% chance of a quarter-point cut, up from 90% a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Unfortunately, anything that dents that confidence is likely to also hurt a stock market trading at record highs. Several potential catalysts lie ahead this week.

The minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, due Wednesday, will give insight into the discussions surrounding the central bank’s decision to cut rates by a quarter point last month. With the committee publicly divided, recent comments suggest, they could be key for markets.

Amid the data vacuum, private-sector research takes on greater importance as the shutdown rumbles on. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is expected to fall Friday. Deutsche Bank strategists said a record low below 50 was possible down from 55.1 in September, noting that the index’s high of 112 came just before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. Make of that what you will.

Earnings season also gets under way with Constellation Brands , Delta Air Lines , and PepsiCo among those set to report —that should give investors an update on the health of the American consumer and the impact of President Donald Trump’s wide ranging global tariffs. The market’s recent strength puts pressure on corporate results to keep the gains coming.

But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at a community bank conference in Washington might just be the most important event of all. If he shuts down the notion of a certain rate-cut in October, stocks’ winning streak could quickly turn into a losing one.

—Callum Keown

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Fed Minutes Come This Week But Rate Path Is Murky

Investors are all but certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this month, but policymakers are signaling the path ahead may be rockier than traders anticipate, and the government shutdown further darkens the trail.

• CME’s FedWatch tool says there’s a 96% probability of a quarter-point cut at the end of October, up from just 52% one month ago. Markets also see an 85% probability of another cut in December. The Fed cut by a quarter point in September for the first time this year.
• In September, 10 officials projected two more cuts, while nine saw one or no additional reductions. But some are sounding more cautious lately. Several Fed officials have warned that inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target and that the economy may not need as much help as markets believe.
• The government shutdown has closed the Bureau of Labor Statistics and delayed the release of the September jobs report. That makes an October cut more likely, said Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha. No data means the Fed has no reassurance about the labor market, so its default is to cut rates.
• Fed governor Philip Jefferson said Friday that he hadn’t decided whether to cut or pause at October’s meeting. “I will continue to evaluate the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” he said.

What’s Next: The Fed will release the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday, offering investors some possible clues as to how policymakers are weighing inflation and labor market trends with just two more policy meetings this year.

—Nicole Goodkind

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Shutdown Continues Despite Sides Insisting They Want It Over

It’s a new week and the federal government is still shut down, despite congressional leaders from both parties insisting they want an end to the stalemate, if only their colleagues across the aisle would be reasonable. The federal government shut down on Oct. 1, suspending worker pay and federal services.

• The Senate is set to vote on two separate stopgap spending bills to reopen the federal government later today, while the House, which has been recessed since passing its version of the bill Sept. 19, has extended its recess through Monday Oct. 13, which is Columbus Day.
• A CBS News/YouGov poll taken Oct. 1-3 says 52% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s and Republican’s handling of the shutdown, while 49% disapprove of how Democrats have handled things. On the shutdown’s economic effects, 49% said they were very concerned, while 31% said they were somewhat concerned.
• In the same poll, 40% of respondents said the Democratic positions aren’t worth the shutdown, while 45% said Republican positions aren’t worth it. Just 28% said Democratic positions were worth a shutdown, while 23% said that of Republican positions.
• The CBS poll found Americans see the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the country, followed by inflation and healthcare. Trump’s focus on lowering prices isn’t enough, according to 75% of respondents, versus 20% who answered “right amount.”

What’s Next: The Trump administration’s threat to start firing thousands of federal employees will be carried out, according to White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, who told CNN that the president will act if he sees congressional negotiations are going nowhere.

— Liz Moyer and Anita Hamilton

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Bitcoin Hits Record High as Risk Rally Chugs on

Bitcoin touched an all-time high over the weekend but has since pared back some of its gains. It’s a sign that investors still aren’t fazed by the government shutdown, which is now entering its sixth day.

• The world’s largest cryptocurrency topped $125,000 for the first time ever early Sunday, then lost some of its momentum. As of early Monday, Bitcoin was up about 8% over the past seven days, and 33% since the start of 2025.
• Other tokens have also been on a good run. Ether, Solana, and XRP are all up over the past seven days, although like Bitcoin each of them looked set to start the week in the red. The drop in prices is probably due to traders opting to take profit after a strong recent run.
• Cryptos tend to move in tandem with equities —and those appear to still be on a bullish trajectory, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average on six-day winning streaks. But some investors are also seeking out safe havens like gold and Bitcoin as the shutdown drags on.

What’s Next: History suggests more gains are coming for digital tokens. Bitcoin has finished in the green for October 10 times in the past 12 years, leading some bulls to coin the phrase “Uptober.”

—Elsa Ohlen and George Glover

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Warehouse Clubs Square Off With Big Retailers as Holidays Approach

Warehouse clubs are winning over America. Three such retailers—Sam’s, Costco Wholesale, and BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings —are among the fastest-growing physical retailers in the U.S., according to data from Kantar, Euromonitor, and others. They are gaining traction as consumers flock to low prices and curated merchandise.

• Walmart-owned Sam’s Club sales are up 50% in the past five years without opening any new stores. Same with revenue at BJ’s and Costco from 2020 through 2024. Annual visits rose each year from 2019 to 2024 at Sam’s, Placer.ai says, and five out of six years at Costco and BJ’s.
• There’s been a shift in the way consumers view and interact with warehouse retailers, says UBS analyst Michael Lasser. The economic model for warehouse clubs is odd. They sell items at or near the price they buy them— even at a discount. Profits instead come from membership fees, ranging from $50 to $130 a year.
• But the low prices keep shoppers coming back for more. At least 80% of the three retailers’ customers are inclined to renew their memberships. The math for shoppers checks out. For consumers interested in big-ticket items, whether it’s a flat-screen TV or a Florida getaway, memberships can pay for themselves.
• The long checkout times are a knock against them from a consumer perspective. Yet clubs are coming up with new ways to make it easier to shop—and get people to spend more. Sam’s showcase Grapevine store is benefiting from Walmart’s big technology investments in recent years.

What’s Next: Amazon.com’s second Prime sale of 2025 starts Tuesday, and Walmart and Target also have sales weeks, unofficially kicking off the holiday shopping season. National Retail Federation’s chief economist Mark Mathews says consumers are shopping early because they think that prices could move higher.

— Teresa Rivas and Sabrina Escobar

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Taylor Swift Inspires Commercial Rush With Latest Movie/Album

Taylor Swift has managed to kick up a commercial ruckus again, this time over her recently released album, which has spurred related business activities including an 89-minute movie about the making of her 12th studio album. The Official Release Party of a Showgirl ruled the domestic box office charts this weekend, and retailers such as Starbucks tried to capitalize on the moment.

• The movie, in limited release over the weekend, raked in $33 million at the domestic box office, Comscore said. That made it the top movie for the three days. Theater operator AMC Entertainment showed it in all the theaters it operates. It ties to Swift’s 12th album, “The Life of a Showgirl.”
• Comscore’s senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian called the debut “incredibly impressive” considering Swift only announced it was coming two weeks ago. He added that Swift’s movie-music industry synergies are a blueprint for how non-film content can drive people to the multiplex.
• Starbucks held “global glitter party” listening events at participating coffeehouses, playing “The Life of a Showgirl” and “Starbucks Lovers” playlists, and hosting a pop up store in Nashville. It had offers for its rewards members to unlock free drinks through its mobile app.
• Baked by Melissa bakeries was selling a “Life of a Showgirl”-inspired set of 24 orange-and-teal cupcakes ($38), and Insomnia Cookies was offering 13 cookies (Swift’s favorite number) for the price of 12, free delivery on orders of $20, and a chai cookie.

What’s Next: Also at the box office, Warner Bros.’ One Battle After Another, a crime drama starring Leonardo DiCaprio, sold $11.1 million in its second weekend. Overall, Hollywood has sold $6.67 billion of tickets at the domestic box office this year, Comscore says, 4% higher than in 2024.

—Janet H. Cho

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner