Stock Markets Suffer Amnesia Amid Shutdown Breakthrough. The Crucial Issue They’re Forgetting.

(Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The imminent end of the longest U.S. shutdown in history has caused the biggest bout of amnesia in stock market history.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 2.3% Monday, clawing back a significant chunk of last week’s AI-fueled selloff. Nvidia, Palantir, and the other usual suspects led the rebound after the index’s 3% drop.

The government reopening is undoubtedly a good thing, and the timing probably ensures the Federal Reserve has enough data to make an informed decision on interest rates at its December meeting. But the shutdown ending was inevitable, so such a reaction seems unwarranted.

And what about the mounting fears that an AI bubble is about to burst—have they suddenly evaporated?

No. Earnings from CoreWeave , one of the many tech companies to do a circular deal with OpenAI, may jog a few memories. The AI cloud company’s revenue surged but its guidance failed to live up to Wall Street’s expectations when it posted after the bell Monday—cue an 8% drop for the stock in after-hours trading.

The valuation of the biggest AI names will come under scrutiny again as fears persist that they’re overblown. Even if the shutdown resolution distracts stocks for a bit longer, Nvidia will jolt investors from their malaise next week. Its earnings will refocus markets on the big question facing stocks.

High-profile names from Jamie Dimon to Jensen Huang and Cathie Wood to Michael Burry have all given their answers as to whether the AI boom is a bubble.

Unfortunately, investors may no longer be able to lean on Warren Buffett for advice after the Berkshire Hathaway boss said he’s “going quiet,” in what may be his final letter as CEO. It’s worth noting, though, that the Sage of Omaha has steered clear of the AI boom, building up a record $381 billion cash pile instead.

Investors would do well to remember that.

—Callum Keown

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Warren Buffett Posts Final Thanksgiving Letter as Berkshire CEO

Warren Buffett released on Monday what may well be his final communication as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. The Oracle of Omaha reiterated his support for his successor Greg Abel, and said he would step up the pace of gifts to his three children’s philanthropies.

• “I’m ‘going quiet.’ Sort of,” Buffett wrote in a personal Thanksgiving letter posted to Berkshire’s website. He added that he will continue discussing Berkshire via a personal annual Thanksgiving message to shareholders and his children. Abel will take over writing Berkshire’s official annual letter to shareholders from early 2026.
• Buffett again voiced his support for Abel, who he said was a “great manager, a tireless worker and an honest communicator.” The veteran Berkshire executive is set to take the reins at the end of the year. Buffett will continue to serve as chairman.
• The 95-year-old Buffett said that he would step up the pace of gifts to his three children’s philanthropies so they stand a better chance of disposing of his estate while they are alive and able to complete the task.
• He also included plenty of the life lessons and anecdotes he is known for. Buffett dedicated more than two pages of the letter to life in Omaha and the successes and wisdom of fellow Nebraskans. He also noted that Berkshire stock fell by 50% three times in 60 years under his management, noting the shares had made a comeback each time.

What’s Next: Buffett won’t appear on stage at Berkshire’s annual meeting in May, so his future communication with shareholders may be limited after Monday’s missive. You can read the full letter here.

— Andrew Bary and George Glover

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Economic Reports Start Flowing When the Shutdown Ends

U.S. statistical agencies could begin publishing delayed economic data within days of the government’s reopening, which is expected later this week. September labor and inflation data will come quickly but October and November reports may not come before the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

• Since Oct. 1, private companies have helped fill the information gap, but their economic data are more fragmented, and in some cases less reliable than the official government-collected data. It’s been a frustrating shutdown for Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, economists, and investors.
• The September jobs report, which includes the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, wages, and hours worked, will be first out, likely be published within three days of the government’s reopening. It was mostly ready when things shut down.
• September retail sales, trade data, and the personal consumption expenditures price index will also come fairly quickly, plus initial and continuing jobless claims. October’s data will be more difficult to produce because the shutdown impeded agencies’ abilities to field, collect, and process survey responses and price checks.
• The government is also likely to miss the typical reference period—the week of the 12th of the month—for November’s data. But if the shutdown ends this week, there will still be time to collect November data, even on a delayed basis. Officials may rely more than usual on estimates for October and November CPI.

What’s Next: Morgan Stanley chief economist Michael Gapen estimates that the October and November jobs reports will be released on Dec. 8, based on what happened after the 2013 government shutdown. But he doesn’t expect October’s retail sales and inflation data until around Dec. 18. The Fed meets Dec. 9-10.

— Megan Leonhardt

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For Hospitals, Insurers, Hopes Fade for Extended ACA Subsidies

The government reopening could clear up air travel disruptions and get government services back up, but hospitals and health insurers still face uncertainty over the subsidies covering premiums for health plans under the Affordable Care Act. The matter still isn’t resolved, and the subsidies expire soon.

• Senate Republicans promised to vote in December whether to extend the subsidies, but Democrats wanted an extension included in the deal ending the shutdown. About 90% of the 24.3 million people whose ACA plan premiums are covered by the subsidies face a big jump in 2026 premiums without them.
• Open enrollment for next year’s plans is well under way. Without an extension, millions are expected to drop off the marketplace plans. The number of uninsured people in the U.S. could rise by five million, the Congressional Budget Office says. That means insurers can expect lower enrollment.
• Patients that do enroll in ACA plans will likely be sicker on average, raising medical costs for insurers. For the hospitals, it means fewer patients as the overall number of insured Americans continues to drop. This is bad news for stocks like health plan providers Centene and Oscar Health.
• Worsening the picture for the insurers was a growing worry that President Donald Trump could be turning on the sector. In a weekend social media post he called insurance companies “money sucking,” and he proposed paying people directly to cover health costs rather than insurers.

What’s Next: Lawmakers might still vote on extending the subsidies, but Raymond James healthcare policy analyst Chris Meekins sees little chance of the promised vote succeeding. Republicans aren’t going to back an extension when Trump opposes one, Meekins said.

— Josh Nathan-Kazis and Janet H. Cho

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CoreWeave Beats Expectations But Contract Delay Dents 2025

CoreWeave’s revenue doubled in the third quarter as it continued to add cloud computing agreements with some of the biggest firms in artificial intelligence. It beat expectations but the delay in fulfilling a customer contract will dent fourth quarter results and caused it to cut its full year forecast.

• The company’s adjusted loss of 22 cents a share was narrower than expected on revenue of $1.36 billion. CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator said its position as the essential cloud for AI has never been stronger, but demand still far exceeds supply, so it remains in a supply constrained environment.
• Management said a data center developer was temporarily behind schedule because of supply chain pressures. The customer agreed to adjust the delivery schedule and maintain the value of the original contract. Full-year 2025 revenue is forecast to be $5.05 billion to $5.15 billion, below an earlier forecast.
• CoreWeave’s future sales from recurring customers rose to $55.6 billion, in line with expectations. CoreWeave signed new and expanded deals in the quarter, including a $14.2 billion deal with Meta, an additional $6.5 billion one with OpenAI, and a new deal with an unnamed “leading hyperscaler.”
• The company’s main business is leasing data centers that feature installed racks of servers run by Nvidia-designed chips and then renting those systems to the companies that design and use AI tools. Nvidia owns 6.5% of CoreWeave’s stock, according to FactSet.

What’s Next: CoreWeave also lowered its full-year forecast for capital spending to $12 billion and $14 billion, down from the $20 billion to $23 billion estimated in August. The spending that was originally anticipated for the fourth quarter is pushed forward tot the first quarter of 2026.

— Tae Kim and Liz Moyer

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A 50-Year Mortgage? The Difficulty of Solving the Affordability Crisis.

The idea of a 50-year mortgage, floated by President Trump, and its drawbacks highlight the challenges of solving the affordability crisis in the housing market. A longer payout could lower monthly costs in the short-term, but could ultimately raise the cost of homeownership. And the details are sparse.

• A $400,000 loan at a 6.3% rate would save borrowers about $280 a month by spreading their monthly cost across 50 years instead of 30 years. But borrowers would pay more than $425,000 in interest than with a 30-year loan—more than the cost of that initial loan.
• Longer-term loans could lead to higher home prices, Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner said. Subsidizing home demand without increasing home supply could result in higher home prices that negate the potential savings, Berner wrote. (News Corp, which owns Barron’s, also owns Realtor.com operator Move.)
• Evercore analyst Stephen Kim wrote that after 10 years, a buyer would have paid off less than 4% of the principal, versus almost 16% for a 30-year mortgage. Reduced home equity accretion, in the midst of flattish home price growth, could “increase the amount of mortgage risk in the system.”
• Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte, who initially called 50-year mortgages “a complete game changer,” said longer-term loans are a potential weapon in a wide arsenal of solutions, including assumable or portable mortgages.

What’s Next: Mortgage rates and home prices have risen significantly over the past several years, along with insurance costs and property taxes. That has helped push up the median age of a typical first-time home buyer to 40, the National Association of Realtors said.

— Shaina Mishkin and Janet H. Cho

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner