Stocks Are Typically Immune to Government Shutdowns. Why It’s Different This Time.

(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The week has barely started and it’s probably not unusual that everyone’s looking forward to Friday already. But there is a twist—it’s not just impatience for the weekend—the market is waiting for data to gauge the strength of the jobs market, but it could be disappointed. The government shutdown might get in the way.

Government shutdowns are typically a political headache rather than an economic one. In the previous six shutdowns lasting five or more trading days, the S&P 500 rose more often than it fell. That means investors would normally brush off the Tuesday night deadline for lawmakers to strike an agreement to keep funding the federal government.

However, a shutdown could delay the publication of September’s jobs report as all nonessential work—including statistical releases—is halted. That’s an issue for a nervous market looking for reassurance that the Federal Reserve is still on track for an extended cycle of interest-rate cuts. A couple of days might not be a huge disruption but a significant shutdown—like the 35-day impasse in President Donald Trump’s first term—would challenge the strength of the bull market.

There are a couple of other data points worth watching this week that could move markets. Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries data are due, in a test for the electric-vehicle maker’s hefty valuation. Meanwhile the pharmaceutical industry faces a Monday deadline to meet the Trump administration’s demands for lower drug prices, and sporting-goods retailer Nike is the pick of the early earnings reports on Tuesday, providing an insight into the effects of tariffs.

Still, the jobs report will be the main event for markets and investors will be hoping for that Friday feeling.

—Adam Clark

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Federal Government Shutdown a Game of Chicken

Lawmakers were still playing the blame game on Sunday heading into a meeting at the White House today. Both sides are placing the responsibility for any shutdown at each other’s feet. Today’s meeting with President Donald Trump comes as they try to break an impasse with just hours to go.

• Democrats are holding out for an extension of federal subsidies for health insurance policies under the Affordable Care Act, which affects millions of Americans. Those subsidies weren’t extended in Trump’s spending bill approved this summer.
• Republicans want to push the matter off and pass a “clean” government funding extension that buys more time. Leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, say there is plenty of time to address the insurance subsidies separately this fall because they don’t expire until the end of the year.
• The online prediction market PredictIt has the chance of a government shutdown at 54% to 46% as of Sunday afternoon. Polymarket, another prediction market, puts the chance at 57%, and Kalshi gives it a 58% chance. In addition, Kalshi sees a 55% chance of it lasting more than five days.
• A shutdown would start Wednesday if lawmakers can’t come together. Social Security checks are considered mandatory, and recipients needn’t fear payment interruptions. However, anyone with business at the Social Security Administration could have a harder time getting help.

What’s Next: Trump is going to attend a mystery meeting on Tuesday organized by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has summoned top Pentagon brass to Washington. Trump told NBC News on Sunday the meeting was to focus on how the Defense Department was doing and “esprit de corps.”

— Liz Moyer and Janet H. Cho

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Jobs Report This Week Faces Possible Disruption

Speaking of a shutdown, a key government report could be delayed if things get thrown up in the air. Friday is supposed to bring the release of the September jobs report, which economists expect to show steady unemployment and a rise in jobs created since the August report.

• Before that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will reveal the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, expected to show 7.1 million job openings at the end of August, a lower number than in July. Consumer confidence is also expected to fade in Tuesday’s reading from The Conference Board.
• A private payrolls report from ADP comes midweek and is expected to show employers added 50,000 jobs in September, slightly lower than the month before. Employees who remained at their jobs saw a median pay increase of 4.4% in August.
• Economists expect Friday’s broader jobs report to show an increase of 50,000 in nonfarm payrolls, after a 22,000 gain in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Jobs growth has averaged only 26,750 a month over the past four months.
• Federal Reserve officials have flagged this weakening jobs situation as justification for accelerated interest rate cuts. President Donald Trump has been a vocal critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates faster. On Saturday he stirred the pot by posting a cartoon showing him firing Powell.

What’s Next: A shutdown could affect jobs another way. Trump told NBC News in an interview Sunday that he could use a federal shutdown as a reason to cut a lot of jobs on a permanent basis. “[I’d] rather not do that,” he told NBC.

—Dan Lam and Liz Moyer

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Tesla Reports EV Deliveries This Week. Does It Matter?

Tesla is reporting its third-quarter electric-vehicle deliveries this week, and everyone will be watching to see if they will reverse this year’s trend and show a gain over last year. But investors also have to wonder whether it matters in the long run.

• The answer to the first question is a solid maybe. Tesla sold about 463,000 cars in the third quarter of 2024. Wall Street currently projects third-quarter 2025 deliveries of about 447,000 vehicles, according to FactSet. That estimate has been relatively stable in recent weeks.
• The estimate implies a drop of about 3% from last year’s third quarter. A Tesla researcher often referenced by analysts, called Troy Teslike, believes the company will deliver closer to 472,000 vehicles, which would be up about 2% from last year.
• Whether or not Tesla’s sales grow, the third quarter should show improvement. Tesla delivered about 721,000 cars in the first half of 2025, down 13% from the year ago period. Tesla investors have shifted attention to artificial intelligence opportunities.
• AI-trained robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, launched in June, and plans to expand it across the country as quickly as possible. It also plans to start selling significant quantities of AI-trained humanoid robots in 2026. AI has driven several price target increases among Wall Street analysts.

What’s Next: The fourth quarter might not turn out as well as the third quarter. EV sales have been boosted recently by the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit, which has people buying EVs ahead of the deadline. It goes away at the end of September.

— Al Root

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Deadline Comes Today in Trump’s Big Drug Pricing Initiative

A deadline set by President Donald Trump for pharmaceutical companies to make “binding commitments” to lower U.S. drug prices expires Monday, and now it’s up to the White House to decide whether the industry’s efforts to appease the administration have gone far enough.

• The Sept. 29 deadline arrives after months of announcements by drugmakers of new investments in U.S. manufacturing plants, and a firm push by many companies to start selling their medicines at lower prices straight to consumers.
• In letters sent to major pharmaceutical companies in July, Trump demanded that they agree to a series of measures to sharply reduce the list prices of the medicines they sell in the U.S., or else the administration would “deploy every tool in our arsenal” against the companies’ pricing schemes.
• An executive at one drugmaker told Barron’s that it sees the Sept. 29 date as a deadline to begin conversations with the administration, and that those conversations have been ongoing for months.
• Meeting the Trump administration’s demand that U.S. drug prices be lowered to match the prices in other wealthy countries would require a dramatic change to the drug industry, and amount to a major shock to their business models.

What’s Next: It isn’t clear what will actually happen this week, or if drugmakers plan to issue formal responses to the administration, however, a report by the drug industry publication Endpoints News suggested a drug pricing announcement could come that would include new Medicare and Medicaid demonstration programs for new pricing strategies.

—Josh Nathan-Kazis

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Warner Bros. Scores Its Ninth Top Film Debut of 2025

Warner Bros. Discovery extended its hot streak, notching another theatrical debut in the number one spot at the domestic box office. That would be the Hollywood studio’s ninth top debut for the year, putting it well ahead of rival studios and on track to meet or beat its 2011 record.

• Its One Battle After Another sold an estimated $22.4 million domestically, according to Comscore. Warner Bros.’ streak of hits began in April with the release of A Minecraft Movie, followed by Sinners, F1 the Movie, Superman, Weapons, and The Conjuring: Last Rites,” Comscore said.
• A Minecraft Movie is still the year’s top movie, with $423.9 million in domestic box office sales. Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian said Walt Disney Studios has had five top films this year; Comcast’s Universal Pictures has had three; and Lionsgate has had two.
• Universal Pictures, scored second place in the weekend box office with the debut of Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie, a G-rated family adventure based on the animated preschool series. It sold $13.7 million domestically.
• For the movie industry, this weekend’s estimated $76 million in total domestic box office sales pushes Hollywood’s year to date total to $6.56 billion, or 4.2% higher than at this point in 2024, Comscore said. Sales are still 22% below 2019 totals.

What’s Next: October’s lineup is also full, Dergarabedian said. A24’s The Smashing Machine, a drama about mixed-martial arts and UFC champion Mark Kerr starring Dwayne Johnson, and Focus Features’ psychological drama Anemone, starring Daniel Day-Lewis, both open on Friday.

—Janet H. Cho

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Rupert Steiner, Callum Keown