Stock Markets Struggle to Digest Jobs Data. How the Fed Can Soothe Fears.

(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Judging the job market with delayed data is a bit like trying to cook the Christmas turkey blindfolded—hard to tell if it’s undercooked, overdone, or just right. But Wall Street should be happy enough with the latest employment numbers, even if it’s not such good news for many workers.

A bumper crop of data from October and November was always likely to be confusing. The headline figure on Tuesday was a rise in unemployment to a four-year high of 4.6%. That might set off alarm bells about a collapsing labor market, except for the fact it was driven by people re-entering the workforce. It’s tough to find a holiday job this year but that’s not a harbinger of recession.

Still, the numbers were weak enough that the case for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates is intact. While there’s Thursday’s inflation report to watch out for, concerns about rising prices should be muted with oil prices hovering near four-year lows and the tariff shock seemingly passed. The market expects the Fed to pause in January, but that doesn’t mean the easing cycle is over, with a rate cut in March looking likely. That should soothe concerns about a bursting artificial-intelligence bubble—lower rates lead to more liquidity and cheaper debt funding, which supports the valuations of technology companies.

Things might get more complicated in the spring, as the focus switches to a new Fed chair —likely to be named early next year—and political pressure on the central bank to reduce rates from President Donald Trump. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic is already warning about a loss of the Fed’s credibility, although he is in the minority calling for an immediate halt to rate cuts.

With the last jobs data for the year out the way, investors should be free to tuck into Christmas dinner without too many misgivings—but, as always, beware of overindulgence that might lead to indigestion in the new year.

—Adam Clark

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Fed Should Pause Rate Cuts or Risk Credibility, Bostic Says

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says the central bank should pause additional interest-rate cuts. Inflation is still too high, he says, and lowering rates too much could weaken the Fed’s credibility by further fueling inflation. He didn’t support December’s rate cut.

• In an essay, Bostic said additional cuts risk “exacerbating already elevated inflation.” Policymakers have been debating whether inflation has largely been defeated or remains a persistent risk. Fresh data on Tuesday show modest job growth in November despite an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.6%.
• Bostic called the jobs report mixed and said it didn’t change his outlook. Job gains of 64,000 were stronger than many expected, he said. It is unclear whether recent labor market shifts reflect a cyclical slowdown that Fed policy can address or structural forces that it can’t.
• Inflation presents a clearer risk, Bostic said. It has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target for nearly five years, during which time overall prices have risen by about 20%. Bostic expects inflation to remain above 2.5% even at the end of 2026. Inflation won’t likely return to target until 2028.
• A major driver of that view, he said, is evidence from the Atlanta Fed’s business surveys. Companies expect higher input costs and say they plan to continue raising prices well into 2026 to protect profit margins. Those pressures, Bostic said, aren’t limited to firms directly affected by tariffs.

What’s Next: There’s growing disagreement within the Fed over the inflation outlook. Fed governor Stephen Miran, an economic advisor to President Donald Trump has said that inflation may be closer to 2% than headline figures suggest, pointing to lagging housing and other data that distort the overall inflation picture.

— Nicole Goodkind

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Warner Bros. Discovery Will Tell Shareholders to Reject Paramount Bid: Report

Get ready for more drama from Hollywood’s biggest takeover battle. Warner Bros. Discovery’s board is preparing to tell its shareholders to reject Paramount Skydance’s offer, according to a report.

• Warner could tell investors to turn down Paramount’s bid as soon as Wednesday, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal. Warner plans to recommend they back an existing deal with Netflix instead.
• Netflix agreed earlier this month to buy the Warner streaming and studios businesses at $27.75 a share, with cable being spun out to investors. Paramount responded by going straight to shareholders with a hostile offer to buy all of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 a share.
• Warner stock had been trading at close to $30 before Tuesday, suggesting investors were expecting Paramount to make a higher bid. It dropped on Tuesday, closing 2.7% lower at $28.90.
• Some shareholders have been worrying about how Paramount would fund the takeover deal. Jared Kushner’s private-equity firm Affinity Partners had been an equity investor in Paramount’s offer, but it said in a statement on Tuesday that it was no longer involved, per The Journal. Affinity, Netflix, Paramount, and Warner didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment from Barron’s

What’s Next: Paramount’s tender offer is set to expire on Jan. 8, so it will have until then to make a decision on whether to improve its bid. The key decision for Warner shareholders is what they think the company’s cable networks are worth, considering those will be spun out if the Netflix-Warner deal goes through.

— George Glover

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Medline Set to Trade After Pricing Largest IPO in 4 Years

Medline, which supplies hospitals with medical and surgical products, priced its initial public offering near the top of the expected range, in what is the biggest new listing in four years. It’s giving hopes for the health of the IPO market, which was interrupted by tariffs and the government shutdown this year.

• It will begin trading today on the Nasdaq after offering 179 million shares, about 14% of its class A common stock, at $29 each. The IPO raised $6 billion and gives the company a market value of about $54.5 billion. There have been some 200 IPOs this year, according to Renaissance Capital.
• Only three U.S. IPOs have reached $5 billion in the past five years, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It’s the largest since Rivian’s $11.9 billion debut in 2021, Renaissance said. A smaller IPO for Anderson, a tax and advisory firm founded by former Arthur Andersen partners, is expected this week.
• Medline is majority owned by a private-equity partnership made up of funds managed by Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman, which bought the company from its founding family in a 2021 leveraged buyout. The founding family says it will buy up to $250 million in shares.
• Medline says it has more than 50 years of consecutive annual net sales growth, and that net sales growth will continue in the high-single digits. Net sales rose 10.3% in the first nine months of 2025 compared with 2024, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation increased 4.4%.

What’s Next: Medline disclosed it received indications of interest in purchasing up to $2.4 billion worth of its shares from funds or accounts managed by Durable Capital Partners, Janus Henderson Investors, Viking Global Investors, and Singapore’s sovereign-wealth fund, among others.

— Josh Nathan-Kazis and Janet H. Cho

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Retail Gasoline Prices Head Toward 5-Year Low. Here’s Why.

Holiday travelers are already enjoying a respite from otherwise high prices at the gasoline pump this year thanks to everything from an oversupply of oil to seasonally low demand. And now gas prices are heading toward their lowest levels in nearly five years.

• A gallon of regular unleaded gasoline cost $2.89 a gallon Tuesday, according to GasBuddy, which crowdsources prices at more than 150,000 stations in real-time. The last time gas prices were this low was in April 2021. AAA’s data puts gasoline around the same level nationwide, but regionally varied.
• Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s petroleum analyst, said the softer holiday pricing coincides with the end of refinery maintenance, which means supply comes back on the market. The oil cartel OPEC has also been raising oil production pushing crude prices to multiyear lows.
• While oil and gas prices don’t change in lockstep, they are closely tied since oil is the fuel’s main ingredient. Oil prices have dropped in the belief that supply will outpace demand even through 2027, says OPIS chief oil analyst Denton Cinquegrana. WTI crude is around $55 a barrel, while Brent is $59 a barrel.
• Cinquegrana did note the seasonality of gasoline. Winter grade gas is easier and cheaper to produce and demand typically weakens at this time of year. An end to the war in Ukraine could further increase global supply as sanctions against Russian oil are lifted.

What’s Next: More broadly, demand for gas has fallen about 2% a year on average since 2021 as cars have become more fuel efficient. That trend could slow, however. Trump recently moved to roll back fuel efficiency standards.

— Anita Hamilton

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GE Vernova Sees Data Center Fuel Cells as a New Business

GE Vernova, the electric power company spun off from General Electric last year, is developing a new business that could shake up the market for AI data center power solutions. It’s looking at how to make fuel cells, which operate like batteries to generate electricity.

• Unlike batteries, fuel cells are powered by hydrogen or natural gas that make electricity through chemical reactions. GE has been researching the devices for years, but said at a recent investor day that it now has a timeline to move the idea into a commercial business.
• Fuel cell market leader Bloom Energy reached deals this year with Oracle, utility AEP, and energy developer Brookfield Asset Management to use its fuel cells to power data centers. The equipment, which resembles enormous refrigerators, can be used to power off-grid data centers, or give the centers backup power.
• Fuel cells are considered cleaner and more efficient than gas and coal plants, and bullish investors think fuel cells can take market share from the natural gas turbines that generate the largest portion of America’s electricity. But few factories are making fuel cells.
• GE Vernova is employing “thermal spray technology” to make fuel cells in a cost-competitive way at a larger physical scale. CEO Scott Strazik said that he expects to start selling fuel cells in one or two years and industrialize the process in another two or three years.

What’s Next: A GE Vernova spokesman wouldn’t provide more information on the business, including its potential size or revenue. But BofA analyst Andrew Obin says its previous research and development efforts mean it can get into the business without heavy development costs.

— Avi Salzman and Janet H. Cho

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Dear Quentin,

My longtime girlfriend and I are in disagreement on how much help we should give our adult kids. She and I live separately and, of course, have separate finances. I am 61, have $1.5 million in 401(k) investments and put in $80,000 more a year. My house is almost paid off. I plan to work until I am 65.

My 28-year-old son, his girlfriend and their baby live with me rent-free. They do buy groceries and help with upkeep of the house. My son is very hardworking and is very responsible, with outstanding character. I recently gave him $20,000 for a newer car and had him finance the rest. He never asks for anything.

It was my idea for them to move in. With them living with me, I get to see my grandson all the time. My girlfriend thinks I give too much and says he should learn to work for everything. I started with zero. Having lost my other son, I see no problem with doing everything I can to help this son have a better life.

Why not transfer a little wealth now and not wait until I die? He will end up with everything anyway. I wish I had had that kind of help when I was younger.

Who is right?

— No Excuses

Read the Moneyist’s response here.

— Quentin Fottrell

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner