Stock Markets Face a Crunch Week. It’s About Much More Than Nvidia Earnings.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (Woohae Cho/Getty Images)

What’s coming next, a plunge downward or a relief rally? Investors may soon get their answer in a crunch week for the stock market.

While earnings from chip maker Nvidia will be in the spotlight, economic data, retailer reports, and Federal Reserve speakers could be as important.

Nvidia’s report on Wednesday will be vital for restoring confidence in the artificial-intelligence trade. However, the chip company’s customers have already given the game away—they’ve committed to spending big on AI infrastructure in their own earnings. Nvidia has also shrugged off previous disappointments to roar higher so the immediate reaction might not be conclusive.

The bigger question looming over the tech sector and the market in general is whether the Fed will keep cutting interest rates. Traders have been starved of economic data amid the government shutdown but the flow will resume with the September jobs report on Thursday. While it will be outdated, it can be placed alongside earnings reports from the likes of Walmart and Target this week to get a better sense of the balance between the labor market, inflation and the health of the U.S. consumer.

With a potential rate cut in December priced as a coin toss, another determining factor is what Fed policymakers are saying. The minutes from the October meeting—when Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned against assuming further easing was certain—will be pored over Wednesday for clues about the future split between those backing continued cutting or a pause. Multiple Fed governors and regional presidents are also speaking this week and could be more outspoken than normal as consensus breaks down at the central bank.

That’s a lot to take in and some volatility is likely as the various elements are weighed. While upbeat Nvidia earnings could fuel a rush to “buy the dip” and a disappointment could spark AI panic, don’t count on the initial move being the end of the story.

—Adam Clark

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Nvidia Helped Start the AI Stock Rally. Earnings Are Coming.

Nvidia reports earnings this week just as skepticism of the artificial intelligence trade is higher than at any point since 2023, when the launch of ChatGPT jump started the AI engine. Investors are questioning the returns from the billions of dollars the tech industry has spent on AI and want results.

• Not only does Nvidia face high expectations for the October quarter, when analysts expect revenue to jump 56% from last year, it faces skepticism over AI spending, Bank of America’s analyst Vivek Arya, says. Nvidia is expected to comfortably generate more than $70 billion in net income this year.
• What management has to say about AI demand could be especially valuable. CEO Jensen Huang has already hinted that he could sell around $500 billion worth of his Blackwell chips, as well as a soon-to-be launched version called Rubin, by the end of next year.
• Huang may need to offer a sunnier view to restore confidence in the AI trade. It’s still unclear whether the White House will allow Nvidia to sell its next generation chips in China. And demand growth might slow if hyperscalers pare back their plans or buy cheaper chips from rivals.
• Wedbush analyst Dan Ives remains confident that Nvidia’s outlook can soothe market jitters and quiet some of the “AI bubble talk.” He said the report should be a positive catalyst for the sector into the end of the year.

What’s Next: Wall Street expects Nvidia to report earnings of $1.25 a share and revenue of $54.8 billion for the October quarter, according to FactSet. Data center revenue is expected to rise 58% from last year’s quarter, to around $48.8 billion.

—Martin Baccardax and Liz Moyer

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The Fed’s Path Forward Is Getting Murkier For December

A divided Fed has left strategists with more uncertainty than normal about the path of interest rates. Traders see the chance of a rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting as basically a coin flip now, down from a two-thirds chance a week ago. The minutes of the October Fed meeting are coming.

• The minutes come out Wednesday, but already Fed officials have argued against a December rate cut in the past week. There’s now a 55% probability that rates hold steady in December, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Markets put a 44% probability on a quarter-point cut.
• October’s decision to cut by a quarter of a point had two dissenters: Fed governor Stephen Miran, who wanted a half-point cut, and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, who advocated no cut. Just a week ago, the market saw a 66% chance of a December rate cut.
• While the government has reopened it is unclear if and when some of the delayed economic data will be released. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September jobs report this Thursday, but the White House says the October jobs report and consumer price index might never be released.
• In other Fed news, former governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned Aug. 1, reported stock sales and purchases that violated Fed policies and caused it to refer the matter to its inspector general, according to forms from the Office of Government Ethics that were made public on Saturday.

What’s Next: The timeline for the release of October jobs and inflation data is still unclear. The October consumer price index was supposed to come out on Nov. 13 and data collection during the shutdown has been a challenge. Any October jobs report probably won’t include the unemployment rate.

—Liz Moyer and Dan Lam

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Retailers’ Holiday Spending Outlooks Will Be Highlight of Earnings

As retailers report third-quarter earnings, economists want to know their plans for the holiday season amid inflation, tariffs, and economic anxiety. LendingTree found that Thanksgiving hosts expect to spend an average of $487 on food, drinks, and decor this year, up 13% from 2024.

• The White House has been claiming victory on consumer prices. On Friday, it removed tariffs on imported food such as bananas, beef, and coffee. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett disputes that inflation is worsening, telling ABC News prices will improve as the supply of goods into the U.S. increases.
• Forecasters say inflation has made lower-income shoppers more price sensitive, and Americans who rely on food aid from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program saw delayed payments for November during the shutdown. Big retailers have been positioning with Thanksgiving and holiday promotions.
• Walmart says its Thanksgiving meal can feed 10 people for less than $4 a person, down from $7 a person last year. But this year’s 15-item basket is missing the pecan pie, marshmallows, muffin mix, and sweet potatoes from last year’s 29-item basket, and the turkey is smaller.
• Target’s Thanksgiving dinner for four includes frozen turkey, potatoes, cranberry sauce, stuffing, gravy, bread, and corn, and costs less than $5 a person. But last year’s basket included canned green beans and mushroom soup instead of bread and frozen corn.

What’s Next: Walmart, whose CEO Doug McMillon plans to retire early next year, will report earnings on Thursday, while retail rival Target reports on Wednesday. Analysts expect same-store sales at both retailers to weaken from the second quarter and from the third quarter last year, according to FactSet.

— Janet H. Cho and Sabrina Escobar

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Berkshire Hathaway Bought $4.3 Billion of Alphabet Stock

Alphabet stock was set for a boost Monday after Berkshire Hathaway bought $4.3 billion worth of the Google parent’s shares in the third quarter, according to the company’s latest 13-F report.

• Alphabet made up 1.6% of Berkshire’s portfolio by the end of September, according to a filing Friday, which detailed the company’s equity holdings of U.S.-listed securities as of Sept. 30. The company didn’t own any Alphabet shares as of the end of the second quarter.
• In the third quarter, Berkshire sold $10.6 billion worth of Apple shares, $1.9 billion worth of Bank of America stock, and $1.2 billion worth of holdings of VeriSign, a provider of domain registry services, the report showed. Berkshire also bought holdings in insurance company Chubb valued at $1.2 billion, boosting its share in the portfolio to 3.3%.
• Berkshire has been reducing its stakes in Apple and Bank of America for some time. Its stake in the iPhone maker has dropped from about 900 million shares at the end of 2023 to 238 million by the end of September this year. Its position in BofA has shrunk by 45% since July 2024.

What’s Next: A new Google AI could be around the corner, with the expected launch of its Gemini 3 model. The chances of a release coming this week are put at 91% on prediction market Polymarket.

— Evie Liu and Adam Clark

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This Year’s IPO Market Could Have Been Even Bigger

It’s been a stellar year for initial public offerings after a lackluster 2024, but things could have been better. Deals were disrupted for President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, which threw markets into disarray in April, and then for the government shutdown. Conditions are strong for a resurgence, Renaissance Capital says.

• There have been 191 IPOs this year through mid-November, up 48%, according to IPO research firm Renaissance Capital. Tech companies CoreWeave, Circle Internet Group, and Figma each raised more than $1 billion. Avery Marquez, Renaissance’s director of investment strategies, told Barron’s there’s momentum.
• Marquez said Medical and surgical supplies maker Medline could be a $5 billion offering, among the largest since Rivian came public in 2021, and possibly before the end of 2025. Other candidates: Wealthfront, a fintech and robo advisory firm; Bitgo, a crypto company; and Lendbuzz, a fintech.
• Marquez discouraged focusing on the first day of trading as a measure of a company’s potential, noting that numerous companies didn’t initially wow. CoreWeave is one example, Reddit is another, and Facebook (now Meta Platforms) was an “underwhelming performer” in its first year.
• Marquez expects more venture-capital-funded tech, tech-adjacent businesses, and fintech companies to come public next year, and artificial intelligence to be a big new-issue theme, including AI firm Databricks, software company Genesys Cloud, and crypto firm Kraken.

What’s Next: The giant AI start-up and ChatGPT creator OpenAI is said to be exploring going public at a $1 trillion valuation. Marquez said that a $1 trillion valuation would be slightly less than Saudi Aramco’s deal, the largest-ever IPO, adding that it’s not clear if investors would be willing to pay that price tag.

—Paul R. La Monica and Janet H. Cho

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Callum Keown, Patrick O’Donnell