Review & Preview: Stocks Jump Again. Will the Rally End With a Rate Cut?

Sep 15, 2025 17:36:00 -0400 by Teresa Rivas | #Markets #Review & Preview

No Monday Blues. It’s Fed week, and the market is feeling good about the prospects of a rate cut.

The S&P 500 added 0.5% today, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%. It’s the 25th and 26th record close of the year, respectively, for the indexes. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is enjoying its best September in 15 years—so much for the month’s scary reputation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 49 points, or 0.1%.

Big Tech stocks, the so-called Magnificent Seven helped to push stocks higher on the day; even Nvidia finished barely lower despite China saying the chip maker violated its monopoly laws.

The concern for stocks now is that we’re in a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news situation, with any likely interest rate cut at Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee coming as a kind of anticlimax.

A quarter-point cut is all but built into prices now.

If it doesn’t happen, “I’d say to put on your hard hat, get under your desk, and look out because stocks will be falling pretty hard,” says Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. “Unless there is a major spike in inflation over the next couple months, the market right now is essentially forcing the Fed to have to cut three times before the end of this year.”

For Wednesday, a quarter-basis point cut might be the sweet spot, but this Fed has made larger one-time cuts in the recent past. Sekera doesn’t see a repeat this week but admits he was “shocked” when the Fed cut by half a point in September.

Assuming the Fed delivers the expected 25 basis point cut, the market’s “reaction is likely to be driven by the communication, the updated dot plot, and any comments from Chairman Jerome Powell on the conditions required for further rate cuts,” notes David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group.

Only time will tell how Wednesday plays out, but for now stocks keep sidestepping a September slump. The future is in the Fed’s hands.

Company

Last

Chg

Chg%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

45,883.45

49.23

0.11%

S&P 500 Index

6,615.28

30.99

0.47%

NASDAQ Composite Index

22,348.75

207.65

0.94%

Market Data as of

The Hot Stock: Seagate Technology +7.7%
The Biggest Loser: Corteva-5.7%

Best Sector: Communication Services +1.4%
Worst Sector: Consumer Staples -1.2%

Shine On

All that glitters isn’t gold. There’s also silver.

Gold has been on a tear, notching new highs throughout 2025. Between tensions abroad and political uncertainty at home, it isn’t surprising that there’s plenty of enthusiasm for the precious metal.

But it isn’t the only one out there: Silver is having its best year since 2020. And despite being up nearly 50% so far in 2025, silver isn’t overly pricey, my colleague Karishma Vanjani points out.

Here’s more from her report:

Consider the gold to silver ratio, a key gauge that shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The higher the value, the cheaper silver is relative to gold.

Currently the value is at 86. For comparison, its average over the past 50 and 20 years was 63 and 70, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates this week after last cutting rates in December. Since the central bank started easing rates in September, the gold to silver ratio has been 90, on average.

This value is also higher than the average of 87 seen during the easing period from August 2019 to March 2020, and it’s higher than the average of 59 seen during the September 2007 to December 2008 easing period. When the Fed cut rates from January 2001 to June 2003, this average was 67. Comparisons with the past suggest silver is undervalued relative to gold now.

If nothing else, investors that get priced out of gold could turn to silver as the next best thing. Second place isn’t so bad.

The Calendar

Ferguson Enterprises reports earnings tomorrow.

The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for August. The consensus estimate is for a 0.2% month-over-month increase, following a 0.5% gain in July. Excluding autos, sales are expected to rise 0.4%, compared with 0.3% previously.

The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. The consensus call is for a 33 reading, one point more than in August. Readings below 50 indicate that home builders have a dour short-term outlook for the single-family housing market.

What We’re Reading Today

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