Review & Preview: Fed’s Big Finale

Dec 09, 2025 19:55:00 -0500 by Connor Smith | #Markets #Review & Preview

Showtime. The moment Wall Street has spent the last six weeks waiting for has nearly arrived: The Federal Reserve will make its final interest-rate decision of the year at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow.

Traders see an 87.4% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will opt for a quarter-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Such odds fell to about 30% in November but rebounded in the wake of dovish commentary from key central bank officials like New York Fed President John Williams.

The market was pretty much at a standstill as the FOMC began its two-day meeting today. The S&P 500 fell less than 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 179 points, or 0.4%, though it was dragged down by a slide in shares of JPMorgan Chase. More on that below.

The Russell 2000 marked its second-highest close on record ahead of the expected cut.

“During the last four rate-cut cycles, the Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks) outperformed the S&P 500 (large-cap stocks) by an average of 6-10% points in the first year of cuts,” Eric Diton, president and managing director at The Wealth Alliance, told me. “Small stocks tend to be more highly levered and tend to have revenues that are more focused on the domestic economy. Hence, their businesses and profitability are often more positively affected by lower rates.”

The rate-cut decision is only part of tomorrow’s festivities. The Summary of Economic Projections will offer crucial context on how central bankers view the path of rates, inflation, and the economy in the year to come.

“A strong signal that the Fed is prepared for an extended pause could leave investors disappointed, given that markets are pricing in greater than 90% odds of another rate cut by next April’s FOMC decision,” writes Oxford Economics analyst John Canavan. “Reduced odds of a rate cut early next year may keep yields struggling for direction within the ranges of the past few months over the near-term.”

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also take questions from reporters at 2:30 p.m. ET. If past conferences are any indicator, you can count on wild price moves in the final hour and a half of tomorrow’s trading session.

Company

Last

Chg

Chg%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

47,560.29

-179.03

-0.38%

S&P 500 Index

6,840.51

-6.00

-0.09%

NASDAQ Composite Index

23,576.49

30.58

0.13%

Market Data as of

The Hot Stock: Newmont +5.7%
The Biggest Loser: AutoZone -7.2%

Best Sector: Energy +0.7%
Worst Sector: Healthcare -1.0%

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Tuesday, Dec. 9Index performanceSource: FactSetAs of Dec. 9, 4 p.m. ET

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Dec. 9-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.5%Nasdaq CompositeS&P 500Dow industrials

Spending Alert!

You can pinpoint the moment JPMorgan Chase investors found out how much management expects firmwide expenses to rise in 2026. Right around 12:30 p.m. ET, JPMorgan stock fell sharply.

The revelation came from Marianne Lake, CEO of JPMorgan’s consumer and community bank, who told investors at a Goldman Sachs conference that she expects 2026 expenses of $105 billion, my Barron’s colleagues Janet Cho and Rebecca Ungarino report. That’s 3.6% higher than Wall Street estimates recently and 9% more than expectations for 2025, according to FactSet data. Janet and Rebecca write:

Lake sought to reassure investors at the financial services conference by noting that the biggest driver of higher expenses is “high-quality” costs, reflecting growth investments.

That includes product-marketing costs, higher incentive-related compensation as advisors outperform, spending to improve credit card offerings, building branches, and investing in artificial intelligence technology, Lake said at the event in New York.

“We would do as much responsible strategic investment as we could profitably, and responsibly, do,” Lake said.

Her comments didn’t stop the slide: JPMorgan stock ended the day down 4.7% and single-handedly shaved 90 points off the Dow.

You can read more about what this all means for JPMorgan and other banks from Janet and Rebecca here.

The Calendar

Adobe, Chewy, Nordson, Oracle, and Synopsys report quarterly results tomorrow.

The Federal Open Market Committee will also announce its monetary policy decision. The FOMC is widely expected to cut the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5%-3.75%.

What We’re Reading Today

What’s Ahead for Markets in 2026? Join Barron’s virtual roundtable on Dec. 11.

From “Liberation Day” tariffs to torrid rallies in AI stocks and gold, this year has been full of surprises. Join us for discussions with investment strategists and money managers about the outlook for the economy and markets in 2026—and how to position your portfolio for success.