Take-Two Stock Has Been Hurt by GTA 6 Delays. Bet on a 2026 Hit, Analyst Says.

Grand Theft Auto V, the latest game in the series, was released in 2013. (Courtesy of TakeTwo & Rockstar Games)

Key Points

• Take-Two Interactive’s Grand Theft Auto VI is now slated for release on November 19, 2026, after multiple delays.
• Benchmark Research named Take-Two stock a “top idea” with a Buy rating and a $300 target price, citing GTA VI as a major catalyst.
• Shares of Take-Two are up almost 40% this year, despite a recent flatlining and a 0.2% dip to $255.70 on Monday.

Take-Two Interactive Software has pushed back the release of the next installment in the Grand Theft Auto franchise so often that delays have become a running joke. But next year should bring both the videogame and gains in the stock price, according to Benchmark Research.

Take-Two said last month that Grand Theft Auto VI would be released on Nov. 19, 2026. The game was originally slated to hit the market in the fall of 2025, before the launch date was pushed back to May 2026.

Shareholders’ disappointment over the latest delay creates a buying opportunity in Take-Two stock, according to Benchmark’s Mike Hickey. He named the stock as his “top idea” in the entertainment and digital-media sector on Monday.

“We view Grand Theft Auto VI and the anticipated evolution of GTA Online as a major growth catalyst for Take-Two, with the hype cycle around GTA VI…likely to be among the most significant in entertainment history,” wrote Hickey.

He has a Buy rating and $300 target price on Take-Two stock. Shares were down 0.2% at $255.70 in early trading Monday. The stock is up almost 40% this year so far but has flatlined over the past three months.

The Benchmark analyst’s price target is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 times his forecast for Take-Two’s normalized adjusted earnings across its fiscal 2027 and 2028 years.

That might seem hefty but Hickey expects the boost from Grand Theft Auto VI to last well beyond the initial release. While the most recent game in the series was released in 2013, Take-Two continues to reap the benefits from spending on the online version, Grand Theft Auto Online, which is regularly updated.

“While no formal guidance has been issued, FY27 is expected to establish a higher baseline rather than a onetime peak, with GTA Online 2 supporting a continued shift toward digital and recurrent consumer spending,” Hickey wrote.

Of course, there is the potential for further disappointment on the release date. Currently, traders on the prediction market Kalshi put the odds of Grand Theft Auto VI being released before 2027 at 73%.

Still, there might be other reasons to bet on Take-Two stock. Following the $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts by an investor consortium, announced in September, the company is set to be the last large U.S. independent videogame publisher left on the market. As Barron’s recently noted, analysts have also significantly raised their forecasts of earnings for the company.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com