Review & Preview: The Big Reversal

Nov 20, 2025 19:55:00 -0500 by Sabrina Escobar | #Markets #Review & Preview

That Was Unexpected. Talk about a roller coaster of emotions.

Investors woke up in a bullish mood, spurred on by Nvidia’s “beat and raise” quarter last night, and the company’s assurances that AI demand remained “off the charts.”

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took on the bubble worries directly: “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” he said on the company’s earnings call. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

The reassurances worked —briefly. Stocks jumped at the open with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite up as much as 2.6% this morning. Nvidia shares were up 5.1% shortly before 10 a.m. And then everything turned lower.

Blame persistent concerns about AI and tech valuations, which helped to drag down the rest of the market. Nvidia accounts for about 8% of the S&P 500.

Nvidia finished the day down 3.2%, and all three major indexes closed in the red: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 387 points, or 0.8%.

“A company of Nvidia’s size inevitably reshapes the broader market,” wrote Michael Gayed, portfolio manager of The Free Markets ETF and writer of the Lead-Lag Report. “It now represents a major slice of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, effectively dictating index performance. When Nvidia rallies, indexes rally. When Nvidia stumbles, indexes feel it.”

That’s been a double-edged sword, Gayed added—Nvidia’s rise has lifted the market, but the same dynamic can trigger broader volatility, as we saw today. And because the stock has rallied for so long, even the smallest inkling of a crack in the company story can trigger a selloff.

“In an environment where algorithms and crowd behavior accelerate every move, reversals happen faster than they used to,” Gayed wrote.

The (very overdue) September jobs report added to the mayhem by muddying up the likelihood that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its December meeting.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 119,000 jobs to payrolls in September—more than double the 50,000 economists expected.

My colleague, Megan Leonhardt, writes:

With such a mixed picture, Fed policymakers are still more likely to keep interest rates steady rather than lower them when they meet next month. On balance, the report showed that although job demand has clearly continued to be weak, the U.S. labor market isn’t in imminent danger of collapsing. In addition, officials will have an incomplete picture of the economy: The Fed won’t have BLS jobs reports for October or November on hand ahead of their Dec. 9-10 meeting. But the call will likely be a close one—and Thursday’s data release provided justification, so to speak, for both sides of the rates debate.

Company

Last

Chg

Chg%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

46,245.41

493.15

1.08%

S&P 500 Index

6,602.99

64.23

0.98%

NASDAQ Composite Index

22,273.08

195.03

0.88%

Market Data as of

The Hot Stock: Walmart +6.5%
The Biggest Loser: Jacobs Solutions -11.0%

Best Sector: Consumer Staples +0.7%
Worst Sector: Technology -3.2%

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Thursday, Nov. 20Index performanceSource: FactSet

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Nov. 20-3-2-10123%Dow industrialsS&P 500Nasdaq Composite

Checking Up on Consumers

The market’s tech obsession makes it easy to overlook events happening in “less sexy” corners of the economy. Retail and consumer stocks, for instance, had a big week. Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, and Walmart all reported earnings in the past three days.

Given that official government data have been scarce over the last two months, the reports from some of America’s largest retailers gave investors much-needed insight into consumer spending.

The results themselves have been a mixed bag. Walmart and TJX topped earnings, grew sales, and raised guidance, while Home Depot and Target were forced to cut their profit outlooks to account for slightly weaker third quarters.

Put together, the recent reports paint the picture of an American consumer that continues to spend, albeit with added caution and a sharper eye toward value. Many management teams mentioned that concerns over affordability were crimping household spending, especially among lower-income consumers.

“Affordability and uncertainty in the broader economy continue to weigh on consumer confidence, particularly when it comes to larger discretionary purchases,” Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison said Wednesday.

That’s why companies with a strong value proposition or a focus on essentials, like Walmart and TJX, have done so well this quarter.

“Walmart is better insulated that just about anybody given the value proposition that we have,” Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said on Thursday. “If pocketbooks are being stretched and consumers are being choiceful and value-seeking, it stands to reason, if there’s more pressure on the consumer, they’re only going to become more so.”

The Calendar

BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings reports quarterly results tomorrow.

S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for November. Expectations are for a 52 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 54.5 for the Services PMI. This compares with readings of 52.5 and 54.8, respectively, in October,

What We’re Reading Today

What’s Ahead for Markets in 2026? Join Barron’s virtual roundtable on Dec. 11.

From “Liberation Day” tariffs to torrid rallies in AI stocks and gold, this year has been full of surprises. Join us for discussions with investment strategists and money managers about the outlook for the economy and markets in 2026—and how to position your portfolio for success.