Tesla Stock Could Be Headed for a Breakout Despite Weak Europe Sales

Tesla stock has been somewhat immune to bad news. (Sergi Gapon / AFP / Getty Images)

Tesla has once again attracted significant attention—and not in a good way—when the most recent data showed sales dropping by 40% in July. The stock may be able to break out anyway.

How is that possible? Going back to Friday, Tesla stock gained 6% amid a broad-market rally and then rose 2% on Monday, even though the S&P 500 fell 0.4%.

The weekly chart reveals a bullish ascending triangle pattern forming, and a close above $350 on Friday would confirm a breakout. With the stock down 1.6% at $344.05, Tesla still has some work to do. But a move above that level would propel Tesla toward $425 by year-end, revisiting a price last seen in late 2024. The rally that drove the stock there ended with a spinning top candle, which often speaks to fatigue. That wasn’t all that surprising given that shares had more than doubled after a bullish morning star, which signaled a bottom during the last week of October, when the stock screamed higher by 22%. Tesla could be ready for a big move upward.

Rivian, an electric vehicle peer, is also looking interesting. The stock, which is down 1% in 2025, is having a relatively better 2025 than Tesla, which has fallen 14%. Rivian, which was up 1.6% at $13.44 on Thursday, currently trades 23% below its most recent 52-week high after surging 8% last Friday.

Despite significant drawdowns of 62% during the January through March period and 68% during the May through August period, Rivian has been making higher lows since last November, signaling resilience. From these levels, Rivian appears to present a buying opportunity with a target of $14.61 sometime during the fourth quarter. As long as the stock remains above $11.50, we’d maintain a bullish stance. This stock is still far from its high near $180, which was reached shortly after going public in November 2021, but has been rounding out a bottom as it has been trading sideways since April 2024.

Unlike its U.S. competitors, China’s NIO has registered remarkable gains recently, advancing 33% over the last month. The last seven weekly closes have all finished near the top of their respective ranges, signaling strong support.

The stock, which was down 0.3% at $6.32 on Thursday, finds itself at a pivotal level. On the chart, a possible double top may be forming near $7, near where the stock peaked last October. However, the recent break above the bull flag pivot at $5 and the double bottom trigger of $5.59 suggest bullish momentum. While a pullback into the $5.75 area seems likely in the near term, a reacceleration into year-end remains the base case. This could see double digits by the end of 2025.

These EV stocks are looking electric.