Tesla Deliveries Should Be Weak. Will It Matter to the Stock?

New Tesla cars are parked in a lot at the Tesla Fremont Factory in Fremont, California. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries are projected to decline, down from 497,099 in the third quarter.
• The end of the federal EV purchase tax credit, worth up to $7,500, contributed to an expected decrease in Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries.
• Investor focus is shifting to Tesla’s robo-taxi business, with the removal of safety monitors in Austin seen as a key indicator of progress.

Tesla will soon release its fourth-quarter deliveries numbers. How many cars Tesla is selling right now is secondary to something else, however. Investors likely would prefer an update on the electric-vehicle maker’s robo-taxi business.

They might get that, along with deliveries, on Jan. 2.

Investors are braced for declines when Tesla posts the deliveries data. The company-compiled consensus of 20 brokers predicts deliveries of 422,850 vehicles.

The FactSet consensus is for deliveries of about 440,000 vehicles. The FactSet consensus was closer to 460,000 a few weeks ago. The more recent estimates are closer to 415,000 vehicles.

Tesla delivered about 497,000 cars in the third quarter of 2025 and 496,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2024.

It isn’t hard to figure out why Wall Street projects declines. The federal government ended the EV purchase tax credit, which was worth up to $7,500, at the end of September. That made EVs more expensive. It also created a rush to buy EVs in the third quarter. Tesla’s deliveries of 497,099 in the third quarter were a record for the company.

Expected declines and recent trading in Tesla stock make it challenging to predict investors’ reactions to the pending delivery results. Coming into Wednesday, Tesla’s stock has declined for five consecutive days, dropping about 7% over the span.

Some caution for a weak number seems to be reflected in the shares. Anything around 415,000 vehicles should be good enough to keep the stock stable, said cofounder Gary Black. “The real event will be whether the safety monitors come out of the cars in Austin [by year’s end].”

Tesla launched its robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June with safety monitors in the front passenger seat. Removing the monitors, something CEO Elon Musk has hinted at lately, would be a sign of progress for investors. After that, adding cities would be the next big milestone. Tesla is testing robo-taxis in San Francisco with safety monitors in the front driver seat.

The importance of AI-trained robo-taxis can’t be understated. Tesla shares have risen 13% this year despite falling car sales. Tesla likely will sell fewer than 1.7 million cars in 2025, a drop for a second consecutive year. Gains value Tesla at about $1.6 trillion and 220 times estimated 2026 earnings. Much of that value comes down to CEO Elon Musk’s ability to create artificial-intelligence applications, such as self-driving taxis, at his car company.

Investors might look past weak deliveries if safety monitors are gone in Austin. Of course, stronger-than-expected deliveries and no safety monitors would be welcome, too.

Tesla fell 0.2% in premarket trading, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com