Tesla China Sales Decline Again. Can It Salvage a Bad Year?

Coming into Tuesday trading, Tesla stock was up 9% this year. (Katherine KY Cheng/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Tesla’s November car sales in China decreased by almost 1% year over year, totaling just over 73,000 vehicles.
• To avoid its first annual sales decline in China, Tesla needs to sell 120,000 cars in December, exceeding its 100,000 monthly production peak.
• Despite weak global sales and a potential second consecutive annual decline, Tesla’s stock is up 9% this year, driven by investor confidence in its AI initiatives.

Tesla car sales in China declined in November. Falling sales just haven’t hit the stock, though. Investors remain focused on other things.

In November, the electric-vehicle maker sold just over 73,000 cars in China, down almost 1% year over year, according to industry data tracked by Citi analyst Jeff Chung.

Through November, Tesla sold about 537,000 cars in China. If Tesla wants to avoid its first-ever annual sales decline in the country, it needs to sell 120,000 cars in December. That’s unlikely. Tesla’s peak monthly production from its Shanghai plant is about 100,000 vehicles.

Tesla stock gained 1.3%, closing at $445.26 on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Shares bounced back from Monday’s 3.4% decline, catalyzed by a downgrade to Hold from Buy at Morgan Stanley.

Chinese delivery numbers might have something to do with it. But Tesla sales have been relatively weak around the globe all year, on track for their second consecutive annual decline.

Still, coming into Tuesday trading, Tesla stock was up 9% this year. Shares trade for about 205 times estimated earnings expected over the coming 12 months. A year ago, Tesla stock traded for closer to 120 times earnings.

Price-to-earnings ratios reflect expected earnings growth and confidence in expected earnings growth. Investors remain confident that Tesla’s AI efforts will yield substantial future earnings.

Tesla is using AI computing to train cars to drive themselves and train robots to do useful tasks. For now, that’s what investors care about.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com