Tesla Stock Wavers. EVs Still Matter.

Tesla sold 10,394 Model S, X, and Cybertrucks in the second quarter of 2025, down from 21,551 sold in the second quarter of 2024. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)

Tesla stock edged into the red Thursday, one day after gaining 5% following the company’s second-quarter delivery report.

Shares of Tesla were up most of the shortened pre-July 4 holiday trading session, but closed down 0.1% at $315.35, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8% Thursday.

On Wednesday, Tesla said it delivered 384,122 cars in the second quarter, very close to the company’s compiled consensus of about 386,000 vehicles.

Tesla met lowered expectations. Sales fell 13.5% year over year, and estimates for the second quarter started out closer to half a million car sales at the start of 2025. Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock had fallen for six consecutive days, losing 14% over the span.

The decline in deliveries was “meaningfully better than feared, with [investor] expectations leading up closer to 360,000,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu in a Wednesday report. “Looking at 2025, volume growth will still be a challenge considering the EV policy headwinds and delay in [the] Model Q.”

The Model Q, also referred to as the Model 2, is the new, lower-priced model that management has promised to investors. It is supposed to go on sale in 2025. No one has seen the car yet.

Yu rates Tesla stock at Buy with a $345 price target.

Numbers were relatively good. HSBC, however, wrote recently that results implied a strong June, which might have been boosted by buying ahead of EV purchase tax credit removal in the U.S. President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” eliminates credits worth up to $7,500 for a qualifying EV purchase. HSBC analysts rate Tesla stock Sell and have a $120 price target for shares.

The final month of a quarter usually sees an uptick in sales. “Tesla offered a slew of incentives, including 0%, 1.99% financing on Model 3 and Model Y, respectively,” wrote Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan in a Wednesday report, adding that results “still look weak” overall. Langan also rates Tesla stock Sell and has a $120 price target for shares.

His target is based mainly on his view of the core automotive business. He doesn’t give as much credit for new initiatives such as self-driving cars and robots.

“Robo-taxi and Optimus [robots] are exciting, but we need EVs to return to growth,” wrote Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas in a Wednesday report. He rates shares Buy and has a $303 price target for the stock.

His target price is below where the stock is trading, and Gianarikas is waiting for Tesla’s earnings report on July 23 to make adjustments.

“While deliveries were better-than-feared, the reality is that in [the second quarter] Tesla saw the largest year-over-year decline in deliveries in the company’s history,” wrote Gianarikas. “Yes, Tesla is a bet on [self-driving cars], energy storage, and robots…But, EVs drive the P&L, now and for the foreseeable future. We need to see growth in the core business to drive [material] earnings revisions.”

In other words, cars still matter to the stock. To be sure, the Street wants to see new artificial intelligence-related businesses, such as humanoid robots, grow at Tesla. But it also wants more EV sales, too.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com