Tesla Stock Is Falling. Gloomier Delivery Estimates Don’t Outweigh This Bullish Thesis.

Tesla shares have gained 21% this year so far. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Tesla’s compilation of analyst estimates projects 422,850 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter, a 15% decline from 2024.
• This estimate is lower than Bloomberg’s average forecast of 445,061 vehicles for the same period.
• Despite declining delivery estimates, Tesla’s stock rose 1% in premarket trading, with investors focusing on 2026 robo-taxi prospects.

Tesla stock was falling on Tuesday. The company published estimates for deliveries in the fourth quarter that are gloomier than Wall Street once thought but that’s not worrying shareholders.

In fact, there remain many reasons to own shares in the electric-vehicle manufacturer into 2026, according to Baird Equity Research.

Investors are digesting Tesla’s publication on Monday of a compilation of 20 estimates from Wall Street analysts for vehicle deliveries, a key metric for car makers that gives a read-across for quarterly sales.

Tesla said analysts expect the company to deliver 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which would mark a 15% decline from 2024 levels.

What might look like bad news is that Tesla’s compilation of Wall Street’s estimates is gloomier than other readings—namely, an average delivery figure of 445,061 vehicles based on a Bloomberg compilation of analyst forecasts.

Tesla is on track for its second straight year of declining deliveries. After delivering more than 1.8 million cars in 2023, the company posted deliveries of 1.79 million in 2024 and is set for 1.64 million in 2025, based on its published compilation of estimates.

Still, shares in Tesla fell 0.6% in early U.S. trading on Tuesday. Investors are more focused on the company’s robo-taxi prospects in 2026.

Tesla shares have had a good year. The stock is up more than 21% in 2025, outpacing the wider stock market, while the S&P 500 has gained less than 18%. Tesla stock could be a winner again in 2026, too.

“We want to own Tesla into the new year and continue to view the company as a core holding for our coverage,” analyst Ben Kallo at Baird wrote in a research note published on Tuesday. Baird rates Tesla at Outperform with a price target of $548 for the stock, which finished Monday at $459.64.

Potential key catalysts coming next year include a broader rollout of robo-taxis, Kallo wrote, as well as new product launches, incremental details on the commercialization of Optimus humanoid robot, and non-Tesla factors such as an initial public offering for SpaceX, another Elon Musk company.

“We expect 2026 to be a year of several announcements regarding robo-taxi service,” Kallo wrote. “These may include expanding into new cities/ geographies, beginning to recognize revenue, and receiving approval to begin operations in China/EU (among others).”

Write to Jack Denton at jack.denton@barrons.com