Tesla Doesn’t Need to Worry About GM and Ford. Why Apple Is Its Bigger Threat.

Tesla uses AI computing to teach its cars to drive and humanoid robots to complete useful tasks. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• Apple is reportedly considering launching an AI-trained robot in 2026 or 2027, posing new competition for Tesla in the robotics sector.
• Tesla’s stock is up 8% year to date and 80% over the past six months, largely driven by optimism surrounding its AI initiatives.
• Tesla aims to sell significant quantities of humanoid robots by 2026, with one million units tied to Elon Musk’s potential pay package.

Tesla makes cars, but its main competition these days doesn’t seem to be General Motors or Ford Motor. It comes from big technology firms with plans to monetize AI technology, including Apple.

The iPhone maker is considering launching a small AI-trained robot in 2026 or 2027, wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas on Wednesday, citing a Bloomberg report. “A $3.6 trillion company with Apple’s resources and pedigree can have a deterministic impact on the world of robotics,” he added.

Tesla’s stock traded higher early in the day, but sold off with the market, losing 1.5% to close at $428.75. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Coming into Thursday trading, Tesla stock was up 8% this year after a recent rally that sent shares up 80% over the past six months.

AI optimism has driven much of the rally. Tesla uses AI computing to teach its cars to drive and humanoid robots to complete useful tasks. Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June. It wants to start selling significant quantities of robots as soon as 2026.

(One incentive in Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s new trillion-dollar pay package, to be voted on by shareholders in November, is to deliver one million humanoid robots.)

“Elon Musk may have been early on identifying the opportunity of physical AI…However, the secret is out,” wrote Jonas, adding the Magnificent Seven tech firms are working on robots enabled by AI. “A firm like Apple getting into the ring on robots would mean another giant in need of world-class AI and manufacturing talent.” That’s more competition for talent among Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon.com, and, of course, Tesla.

AI-trained robots that move around freely aren’t here yet. Investors, however, should get ready to hear more about them in the coming months.

Tesla investors believe their company has a five-year lead on the competition. Time will tell if the other big tech firms can catch up.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com