Tesla Stock Cracks $460. 2026 Is Another Make-or-Break Year.

Production of Tesla’s self-driving electric Cybercab is expected to start in 2026. (JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• Tesla’s stock is up 14% this year, despite a second consecutive year of declining car sales in 2025.
• Tesla launched an AI-trained robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, with future growth anticipated from AI-trained robots.
• Only 40% of analysts rate Tesla stock as a “Buy,” significantly lower than the S&P 500 average of 55%.

Tesla has been busy in 2025, and 2026 will be no different. It’s another make-or-break year for the EV maker, and perhaps for some of the analysts who cover its stock.

Elon Musk’s EV maker is on track to sell fewer cars in 2025 than it did in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline. Still, coming into Monday trading, Tesla stock was up 14% this year.

Shares were up another 1.1% in premarket trading, at $463.85, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.5%. Premarket prices value Tesla for about $1.5 trillion, or about twice as much as 12 of the largest global auto makers combined.

Selling fewer cars isn’t a good thing, but Tesla also launched its AI-trained robo-taxi service this year, starting in Austin, Texas, in June. Shareholders, and bullish Wall Street analysts, are banking on that service, along with AI-trained robots, to unlock a new era of earnings growth at the company.

“[It’s] a monster year ahead for Tesla and Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a Monday report. “The Street is at a crossroads with Tesla as the bulls and bears debate how quickly the Robotaxi era will take shape over the coming year.”

He expects Tesla to rapidly expand its robo-taxi across the U.S., aided by a federal framework for autonomous driving regulations, with production of Tesla’s Cybercab, a purpose-built robo-taxi, in the spring. “In a nutshell, we believe Tesla is taking major steps in advancing its AI Revolution path with autonomous [cars] and robotics front and center,” added the analyst.

Ives rates Tesla stock Buy. He’s arguably the biggest Tesla bull on the Street with a top $600 share price target, which values Tesla for roughly $2 trillion.

Ives’ peers don’t all agree on his vision of the future. Tesla remains a relatively controversial stock on Wall Street. For starters, just 40% of analysts covering Tesla stock rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%.

The average analyst price target for Tesla stock is about $400 a share, below where shares are trading, and targets range from $120 to $600 a share. The $480 gap is more than 100% of Tesla’s current stock price. The bull-bear ratio for Alphabet stock is closer to 40%.

Some disagreement among Wall Street analysts regarding Tesla isn’t new. Answers to key questions, such as how fast Tesla can expand its robo-taxi business, should come in the new year. The answers might not change the minds of either the bulls or the bears, though.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com