Thanksgiving Air Travel Will Be the Busiest in 15 Years, FAA Says. What to Know.

Air travel around Thanksgiving could be one for the books. (MARIO TAMA/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Thanksgiving air travel is projected to be the busiest in 15 years, with 52,000 flights on Tuesday and 51,000 on Sunday, the FAA expects.
• A major winter storm system is expected to disrupt air and road travel across the continental U.S. during Thanksgiving.
• Airline stocks have dropped roughly 3.5% this year, compared with a 12.5% boost in the broader S&P 500.

Thanksgiving air travel is expected to bounce back after the end of the government shutdown caused some travelers to rethink their holiday plans, the Federal Aviation Administration said Friday.

The agency said in a news release that it expects air travel between the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday after the holiday to be the busiest in 15 years. Tuesday should be the peak travel day, with 52,000 flights planned, followed by Sunday, which should see another 51,000, the FAA says.

Many of the flights may have been booked last-minute as the shutdown ended and the worst of planned flight restricted were averted. Bookings had been down 3.3% compared with last year for the period starting the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and ending on the Sunday after, according to data analyzed through mid-November by the analytics firm Cirium. The government shutdown ended on Nov. 12.

However, a major winter storm system moving west to east across the continental U.S. could disrupt both air and road travel for much of the country this Thanksgiving.

Thunderstorms are expected to hit South Central states on Tuesday, while rain and snow blankets the northern Midwest region, according to AccuWeather. The Pacific Northwest may experience flooding and difficult travel conditions on Thanksgiving Day, while lake-effect snow could develop around the Great Lakes, the forecast shows.

Though they remained remarkably resilient through the shutdown, U.S. passenger airline stocks—represented by the S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index —have dropped roughly 3.5% this year, compared with a 12.5% boost in the broader S&P 500 .

Fourth-quarter earnings should detail how much of a financial toll the shutdown took on airlines, as well as how they are managing routes amid a continuing, nationwide shortage of air-traffic controllers that has continued since the shutdown was lifted.

Write to Laura Sanicola at laura.sanicola@barrons.com