Why the Government Shutdown Could Make Thanksgiving Travel Less Hectic This Year

People walk through a terminal at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport on Nov. 9, 2025. (Grant Baldwin/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Thanksgiving weekend flight bookings are down 3.3% compared to last year, with a nearly five percentage point decline in early November.
• Travelers are increasingly cautious, with a 30% increase in disruption assistance purchases on Hopper to rebook flights.
• AAA forecasts a 2.1% increase in holiday air travel to 6.07 million travelers, despite recent flight disruptions.

The government shutdown is finally behind us, but the hangover from it isn’t. Many people rethought their holiday travel plans during the 43-day ordeal that culminated in significant flight cuts at dozens of major airports, according to travel industry data.

The most notable change from 2024 is that fewer people have purchased flights for Thanksgiving weekend. Through last Friday, bookings were down 3.3% compared with last year for the period starting the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and ending on the Sunday after, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.

The steepest decline came in the first two weeks of November, with bookings falling nearly five percentage points compared with the end of October, when they were actually up slightly. “This is likely due to travel uncertainty due to the government shutdown,” the company noted.

That could be good news for anyone planning to head out of town for the long weekend, as it could mean smaller crowds and fewer airport hassles.

Travelers are also being extra cautious this year to avoid any hiccups. On the travel site Hopper, for example, there has been a 30% increase in customers adding disruption assistance that allows them to rebook flights on an alternate airline if there is a delay or cancellation.

And while bookings have been muted overall, more people could make last-minute plans now that the Federal Aviation Administration has canceled the shutdown-related cuts it implemented in the final days of the impasse.

In contrast to Cirium, AAA is forecasting that holiday air travel will increase this year at the same rate as in 2024, by 2.1%, for a total of 6.07 million air travelers. “That figure could end up being slightly lower as some air travelers make other plans following recent flight cancellations,” AAA notes.

Flights prices are averaging around $700 round-trip, according to AAA, about the same as last year. To save on last-minute reservations, consider traveling on Thanksgiving Day itself.

Another thing that hasn’t changed is the busiest travel day of the year, which is expected to fall on the Sunday after Thanksgiving. Nearly 3.3 million people are expected to fly that day, according to Cirium.

Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com