The Stock Market Is Relaxed About Trump Tariffs. Why It’s Different With Copper and 4 Other Things to Know Today.

(Sergey Tolmachyov/Dreamstime.com)

Baseball’s All-Star Game is coming soon but tariff week is already in full swing, and the curve balls are coming thick and fast.

More letters with tariff rates look to be imminent and potentially more trade deals, too. On top of that, the president floated a 50% tax on copper imports and a 200% levy on pharmaceuticals on Tuesday.

The stock market wasn’t too fussed, finishing broadly flat. The bet appears to be that it’s all noise, and it won’t be that bad. To be fair, that’s been a good gamble since Trump took office–indexes remain near record highs.

But investors must have some nagging doubts about the assumption that everything will be alright in the end. The now-well-known TACO trade–based on the idea that Trump Always Chickens Out–clearly isn’t exactly right. It’s likely tariffs will be substantially higher once they’re settled–the only question is how high they will end up being. It’s more the case that Trump just changes his mind a lot.

Traders certainly aren’t counting on TACO when it comes to copper–U.S. prices spiked after the tariff announcement. The critical metal could become the next flashpoint for markets.

The U.S. only produces about half the copper it consumes and can’t easily create more supply. Permanently higher domestic prices for the metal, crucial for electronic wiring, construction, and energy, would be a major headache for companies.

The question is what would prompt Trump to change tack again. It was apparently bonds that got Trump to delay widespread tariffs in April, but the market isn’t that jittery now. The reaction from industries that rely on copper could be a key indicator to watch.

The copper levy may not be the home run Trump thinks it is.

—Brian Swint

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President Hardens Stance on Trade Deadline

President Donald Trump says Aug. 1 is the absolute deadline for countries to hammer out trade deals or accept his unilaterally set tariff rates on their products. No extensions will be coming. He also said copper imports would be taxed at 50%, and warned of nearly 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.

• Trump said during a cabinet meeting that he would continue issuing rate-setting tariff letters to the leaders of other countries. He appears to favor this unilateral approach versus a more time-consuming tête-à-tête with individual trade delegations, announcing his decisions on social media.
• It’s emblematic of Trump’s strategy, which has been to threaten high levies to draw countries to the negotiating table, then to pause those levies while deals are being worked out, then to draw a new line in the sand. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said another 15 to 20 letters are coming.
• When copper tariffs become effective wasn’t clear. The tariffs on pharmaceutical products would have a year to 18 month grace period before kicking in to give companies time to reposition supply chains and move production to the U.S., Trump said.
• There are other sector tariffs still pending, including for lumber and semiconductors. The tariffs on imports for specific sectors have been a sticking point in some of the trade negotiations with other countries.

What’s Next: The current tariffs have brought in $100 billion so far this year, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during Tuesday’s cabinet meeting. He added that tariff revenue could rise to $300 billion by the end of 2025.

— Liz Moyer, Anita Hamilton, and Reshma Kapadia

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Nvidia Getting Closer to Record $4 Trillion Market Value

Nvidia is on the brink of a record-breaking valuation around $4 trillion, inching closer to the milestone on Tuesday. While the artificial intelligence chip maker’s stock closed at a record high of $160 apiece, it was still just short of beating Apple’s record-setting peak valuation of $3.915 trillion in December.

• Nvidia stock has been bolstered by expectations that the surge in demand for AI will continue. Investors have overcome the worst of their fears about U.S. trade policies, even though CEO Jensen Huang warned in May that curbs on chip exports to China could dent sales by $15 billion.
• Other chip stocks rose on Tuesday, including Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, and Qualcomm. Analysts struggled to find a clear reason for Intel’s 7% climb, though Mizuho managing director and technology specialist Jordan Klein noted a rotation into chips.
• There is some betting against the sector, too. The short interest, which is roughly the amount of shares sold short divided by the shares available to trade, in Russell semiconductor stocks averages about 7%, according to Bloomberg. That’s high. The average short interest in the S&P 500 is 3%.

What’s Next: To surpass Apple’s record, Nvidia shares would have to get to $160.46, according to Dow Jones Market Data. They would need to rise to $163.93 to make the semiconductor maker the first company ever to reach the $4 trillion mark.

—George Glover and Al Root

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Apple’s CEO Succession Plan Suddenly Gets Murkier

A once leading candidate to replace Tim Cook as Apple’s CEO has instead announced his retirement, raising fresh questions about the CEO succession plan. Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams will be succeeded as planned by Sabih Khan, senior vice president of operations who has been there 30 years.

• Williams has been at Apple 27 years. Speculation has bubbled up over the years, as in 2016 when he started leading Apple Watch presentations, and in 2019, when the design team started reporting to him. But Cook, 64, doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. Williams turned 61 in January.
• Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment. The news comes amid signs of slowing iPhone 16 sales in June after a surge of buying by people wanting to get ahead of possible tariff-induced price increases. KeyBanc Capital Markets found the sales fell 6% in June compared with a year ago.
• Counterpoint Research reported in June that April and May iPhone sell-through rose 15% from the previous year to its highest level ever, as “tariff dodgers helped boost sales.” But KeyBanc’s John Vinh said the trend didn’t continue in June.
• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg poached Ruoming Pang, who previously led Apple’s AI and machine-learning foundation model team, for Meta’s newly formed Superintelligence Labs unit. Zuckerberg offered Pang a pay package worth tens of millions of dollars, The Wall Street Journal reported.

What’s Next: Apple could encourage iPhone upgrades with new AI software, but has delayed the rollout of features like an AI-powered Siri. “Apple AI is still a non-factor in buying decisions, with limited consumer interest,” KeyBanc’s Vinh wrote. Apple reports third-quarter earnings on July 31.

— Adam Levine, Angela Palumbo, and Janet H. Cho

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Consumers’ Economic Outlook Brightened Before Latest Tariff Drama

Americans’ outlook about the economy improved for the second straight month in June, new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show. What’s still unclear is whether the fledgling gains in optimism will survive the latest round of tariff uncertainty.

• Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3%, the second consecutive monthly decline, the New York Fed’s June Survey of Consumer Expectations found. Inflation expectations for three and five years stayed at 3% and 2.6%, respectively.
• The survey’s June 30 cutoff date means results don’t reflect the fallout from President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcements. On Monday, the White House sent letters to 14 countries outlining their so-called “reciprocal” tariff rates of 25% to 40%, unless they reach trade agreements before Aug. 1.
• Americans’ outlook could sour further if the stock market whipsaws in response to Trump’s letters and unilateral tariffs, as it did after the initial April 2 reciprocal tariff announcements. Indeed, Trump’s letters roiled markets on Monday, although equities rallied modestly on Tuesday.
• Consumers may be factoring in tariffs and banking on some losses short-term—the mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher in 12 months dipped 0.3 percentage points to 36% in the New York Fed’s survey, even though views improved on other economic indicators.

What’s Next: An Intuit Credit Karma survey data found many people are waiting to see how tariffs will affect the economy—and new levies could add to those concerns. Nearly three-quarters of respondents worry that tariffs will raise prices, and 65% fear the levies will cut into their buying power.

— Sabrina Escobar and Janet H. Cho

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Dear Quentin,

My friend passed away some weeks ago and left $25,000 to her son, who is now in his 20s, and envelopes of $300 to her closest friends. While she was very sick in hospice care, her brother took this money for safekeeping, and gave it to her parents. After she passed away, he opened the envelopes with the $300 and instead decided to buy her coterie of friends candles.

Her parents and brother decided that if they gave the money to her son, he would just spend it. Instead, they said they would hold on to it. Her will explicitly states she would like her son to have this money. Her ex-husband is aware of the existence of this stash of cash, but wonders whether he should say something to the parents.

They are a very religious family. These are the same people who hug the altar every week. I spoke to my friend’s brother and I called it “theft.” He said, “I take exception to the word ‘theft.’” After her funeral, I saw her father count $50 notes at the hotel to pay for the afternoon lunch, which I assume came from this money.

Who’s right? Should her ex-husband tell his in-laws that they should hand over the money, as per their daughter’s will? Her son is a responsible young man and does not have issues with alcohol or drugs, and he is like any other boy his age: learning to navigate life. I don’t believe they are respecting her last wishes.

— The Friend

Read the Moneyist’s response here.

— Quentin Fottrell

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Callum Keown