Why This RV Maker Is Sounding the Alarm on the Job Market

Thor Industries posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter. (Dreamstime)

Key Points

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• Thor Industries’ adjusted earnings of $2.36 a share exceed analysts’ expectations of $1.28 for the fiscal fourth quarter.
• Net sales for the quarter of $2.52 billion are slightly below $2.53 billion a year ago but above the $2.32 billion anticipated.
• Thor provides fiscal 2026 per-share earnings guidance of $3.75 to $4.25 and revenue guidance of $9 billion to $9.5 billion.

Shares of Thor Industries were gaining on Wednesday after the recreational-vehicle maker posted better-than-expected earnings. The company is planning for what it calls “weakness emerging in the job market.”

For the fiscal fourth quarter ended July 31, Thor reported adjusted earnings of $2.36 a share, topping the $1.28 analysts had forecast, according to FactSet. Net sales came in at $2.52 billion, down slightly from $2.53 billion a year ago, but above the $2.32 billion Wall Street anticipated.

Thor saw mixed performance across its business segments, with sales of North American towable RVs falling 4.6% and sales of motorized RVs rising 7.8%.

The owner of the Airstream and Heartland RV brands issued a somewhat soft outlook for fiscal 2026. “With multiple data points suggesting weakness emerging in the job market, we think it is prudent to plan for another challenging year,” said Seth Woolf, the company’s head of corporate development and investor relations, in a statement.

Thor guided for fiscal-year earnings in the range of $3.75 to $4.25 a share. Analysts are expecting $4.25 a share. Thor sees revenue of $9 billion to $9.5 billion, below the FactSet consensus estimate of $9.63 billion.

“We continue to be cautious regarding the macroeconomic outlook and its associated impacts on consumer demand and in particular on the appetite for big-ticket discretionary purchases like RVs,” the company said, citing affordability as one of its “most significant challenges” in the marketplace.

Any upside in 2026 “will likely be a function of idiosyncratic business initiatives rather than a more supportive retail market,” Thor added.

The earnings beat appeared to outweigh any concerns over the weak outlook. Thor Industries climbed 5.7% to $108.10.

The report delivered a boost to peers. Fellow RV maker Winnebago climbed 2.9%, while boat makers Malibu Boats and Brunswick were also on the rise. The benchmark S&P 500 index was flat.

In a note last week, Citi Research analyst James Hardiman said that affordability within powersports companies “has been the most important factor influencing recession-like demand trends in recent years.” As most consumers take out loans for RVs and boats, product inflation has only been amplified by a surge in financing costs, Hardiman said.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com