Today Is the Best Day to Buy Stocks. History Proves It.

Historically, Oct. 23 has been the best day to buy stocks based on rolling three-month returns. (Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto/Getty Images)

Investors looking for an edge on markets heading into the final weeks of the year might want to act quickly, according to Renaissance Macro Research, because today is the best day of the year to buy stocks.

Jeff deGraaf, the head of technical research, notes that Oct. 23 is “historically the best day to buy stocks for a three-month holding period”, with quarter-ahead returns of around 3.5% based on data compiled since 1928.

“It’s not just the market ,” deGraaf said in a note published Thursday. “Cyclicals tend to dominate defensive names in the same three-month period with technology a standout and semiconductors in a similar position.”

The reference to tech stocks is timely, given that four of the s0-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks are set to report September quarter earnings next week, starting with aftermarket updates from Microsoft , Google parent Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta Platforms on Wednesday.

Emily Bowersock Hill, CEO and founding partner at Bowersock Capital Partners, expects the megacap tech cohort to continue supporting broader market levels over the coming months.

“This current earnings season is unlikely to disappoint investors enough to trigger a notable market setback,” she said. “We like technology stocks right now because despite rich valuations, the tech sector will continue to benefit from the AI-driven productivity boost to economic growth, which is unlikely to be derailed by trade policy.”

LSEG data suggests the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks will post overall third quarter earnings growth of around 14%, with an estimated growth rate of around 7.8% for the rest of the S&P 500.

Entering the market today also allows investors to reset their positions by nearly a month, as the S&P 500 has been largely unchanged since the close of trading on Sept. 22.

U.S.-China trade risks, the ongoing government shutdown, and lingering concerns over the breadth and depth of weakness in private credit markets has largely held investment sentiment in check over the past four weeks.

Stocks are also likely to get a boost from next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, which is expected to deliver another quarter point interest rate cut while signaling more reductions into the end of the year and the first half of 2026.

“The lack of economic data due to the government shutdown has taken away info that has acted as catalysts the market often rallied around,” said Louis Navellier of Navellier Calculated Investing.

“It doesn’t appear that the shutdown is coming to a close anytime soon, with the primary benefit being the history of the Fed to lean dovish during a data blackout,” he added.

Friday’s delayed consumer price inflation report is likely to be a key hurdle for markets heading into next week, but unless it indicates a big tick higher as a result of tariff-related price pressures, Bowersock Hill thinks it’s unlikely to weigh heavily on next week’s Fed rate decision.

Her focus, instead, remains fixed on the health of the U.S. consumer and the tailwind of the AI investment boom.

“Spending by higher income Americans coupled with lavish and almost panicky spending on AI infrastructure and resources is likely to drive the stock market through the end of the year,” she said.

“The stock market is currently deep into the ‘greed’ phase of the ‘fear-greed cycle’,” she added. “This isn’t a time to be greedy. Exercise control, which means trimming winners and taking profits where appropriate.”

But maybe wait a few months?

Write to Martin Baccardax at martin.baccardax@barrons.com