Treasury Lowers U.S. Quarterly Borrowing Estimate to $569 Billion

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (Brendan Smialowski / AFP / Getty Images)

Key Points

• The Treasury Department projects net marketable borrowing for October to December will be $569 billion, $21 billion less than its July estimate.
• This reduced borrowing is due to a higher cash balance of $891 billion in the Treasury General Account at the start of October.
• Projected borrowing for January to March 2026 is $578 billion, significantly lower than the $748 billion record in 2024.

The Treasury Department projects it will borrow less money from the market than it forecast earlier, primarily because it started the quarter with more cash on hand.

The Treasury estimated net marketable borrowing—the total amount of new money to be borrowed from the public by issuing Treasuries, after paying off maturing debt—will be $569 billion for the October to December quarter. That is $21 billion below the Treasury’s initial estimate of $590 billion, which it made public in July.

It is also well below the record high borrowing of $776 billion seen from October through December 2023.

The Treasury can borrow less because it had a balance of $891 billion in the Treasury General Account at the beginning of October, versus the $850 billion it had expected earlier.

Since late summer, the Treasury has been rebuilding its coffers by issuing record sums of short-term debt. Its cash balance was depleted during a congressional standoff over the limit on the national debt. Money in the general account surged to more than $1 trillion last week after dwindling to $313 billion in July.

The department had a target of $850 billion.

Besides the cash balance, the department’s borrowing estimates are also affected by projected revenue from taxes and other sources, such as tariffs. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear arguments about the legality of many of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. A senior Treasury official said that if tariff revenue were to go down, the borrowing estimate could be affected.

For the January to March quarter, Treasury projects borrowing $578 billion, also a far cry from the $748 billion record set in 2024.

Write to Karishma Vanjani at karishma.vanjani@dowjones.com.