Trump Is Walking Into the Same Trap That Snagged Biden

President Donald Trump kicks off his “affordability tour” in Mount Pocono, Pa. on Dec. 9. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

About the author: Casey Burgat is the director of the legislative affairs program at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management. He is author of We Hold These “Truths”: How to Spot the Myths that are Holding America Back.

Vice President JD Vance took the administration’s second big swing through Pennsylvania today on an “affordability tour” President Donald Trump kicked off last week. The administration has billed the tour as an effort to highlight its work on lowering costs for everyday Americans.

But Trump and Vance risk falling into the same trap that ensnared President Joe Biden and the Democrats before them: Trying to justify to Americans the insurmountable disconnect between glowing macroeconomic data and the gritty realities of their personal pocketbooks.

Trump spoke last week at a rally-style event in Mount Pocono, Pa., a swing district he narrowly won in 2024. On stage, he touted measures like a $12 billion farm aid package, eased fuel efficiency standards, and extended tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act he signed in July.

“We are bringing prices way down,” he declared, while blaming Democrats and his predecessor for the economy he inherited. Vance echoed that message to an audience at Uline Shipping Supplies outside Allentown, Pa. on Tuesday.

But Americans may not buy it from this administration any more than they did the last one.

Even with solid macro indicators like a 4.4% unemployment rate, 119,000 nonfarm payroll additions in the latest report, and inflation cooling to 3% annually, convincing voters that their lived experiences are somehow mistaken is a fool’s errand. Prices may be stabilizing, but they are still higher than prepandemic levels. As the old political adage goes, “If you’re explaining, you’re losing.” Explaining why Americans should feel economically content is a losing endeavor.

Just ask the previous administration. During Biden’s tenure, officials repeatedly pointed to robust job growth and stock market highs, with the S&P 500 surging more than 50% from 2021 lows. Yet, as inflation peaked at 9.1% in 2022 and lingered around 3% by Biden’s exit from office, voters became fixated on more tangible pocketbook concerns. Grocery bills were up 25% from the start of Biden’s term, housing costs were soaring due to supply shortages, and gas prices were fluctuating wildly. The stock market’s boom, disproportionately benefiting the top 10% of wealth holders, did little to sway the working class feeling squeezed at the pump and the checkout line.

Trump’s challenge is amplified by his own campaign rhetoric, which set lofty expectations for a lower cost of living. He promised to “end inflation on day one” and to deliver an economic renaissance through tariffs, deregulation, and energy dominance. Eleven months in, the data tells a mixed story.

Inflation hit 3% year-over-year—unchanged since Trump took office. Groceries are up 2.7%, electricity has risen more than 5%, and core items like beef and coffee are climbing, despite some declines in eggs and gasoline. Those items’ prices have fallen largely due to factors outside the president’s control.

The administration’s tariffs—which are generating $30 billion monthly in revenue—have boosted domestic manufacturing. But they have also hiked prices on imports, including on foods that the U.S. can’t produce. Trump’s mass deportation plans could potentially disrupt the domestic food supply chain and exacerbate inflation on groceries, as up to 40% of farmworkers are undocumented.

A new AP-NORC poll released this week crystallizes the public’s pessimism. Just 31% approved of Trump’s economic handling—a seismic drop from 40% in March and 33% last month. Half of voters in a similar Politico survey said they feel the cost of living is the worst of their lifetimes, including four in 10 who backed Trump in 2024.

Yet Trump grades his economy an “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.”

His dissonance compounds the issue at hand. In his Pennsylvania speech, he dismissed the affordability crisis as a “hoax” peddled by Democrats. He said that children should settle for “two or three” dolls amid higher toy prices. The president risks sounding not only unempathetic, but also wildly out of touch.

As pollster Frank Luntz noted this week, “The greatest danger is if you tell people happy days are here again, and it is 1929.”

Trump’s bravado clashes with the institutional realities he faces. Congress, still narrowly divided, has shown little appetite for sweeping reforms beyond their initial tax extensions. Bipartisan pushback on tariffs from farm-state Republicans worried about retaliatory measures could stall his agenda. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s cautious economic projections signal ongoing caution around cracks in the labor market. Gross domestic product growth estimates for 2025 have been drawn down to just 1.7%.

In the end, Trump’s affordability tour may rally most of his base, but it won’t bridge the chasm between Wall Street’s gains and Main Street’s grievances. Politicians have long learned that macro stats don’t pay the bills. For Trump, whose brand is built on unyielding confidence, admitting voters’ pain might require a humility that simply isn’t in his repertoire.

As Democrats gear up to hammer affordability in the midterms—fresh off gubernatorial and mayoral wins in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City—the president would do well to remember: You can’t tariff your way out of perception.

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