Trump Will Give Farmers $12 Billion. The Stocks That Could Get a Boost—Ones That Won’t.

The president will give farmers $12 billion in aid. A soybean farm in Maryland. (Roberto Schmidt / AFP / Getty Images)

Key Points

• President Trump announced $12 billion in aid for U.S. farmers, which averages out to about $6,300 per farm.
• The aid is likely to benefit seed and crop protection makers like Mosaic and Corteva more than machinery manufacturers, at least at first.
• Grain buyers such as Bunge and ADM saw their shares decline over 1%, indicating investor concerns about rising grain prices.

President Donald Trump is going to help American farmers. It might not help American investors, though—shares of agricultural equipment makers were falling after his remarks.

Monday, Trump announced $12 billion in aid to U.S. farmers, who are beset by rising costs and trade uncertainty, including $11 billion in “bridge” payments.

The money is nice, but it doesn’t amount to much for farming stocks. It works out to about $6,300 per farm. There are about 1.9 million farms in the U.S., according to the Department of Agriculture, which estimates 2025 farm income of about $180 billion, or about $95,000 a farm.

The U.S. and other countries have a history of supporting farmers. Annual support to farmers tops $840 billion globally, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which tracks spending across 54 countries. Payments in the U.S. are expected to top $40 billion in 2025.

There are good reasons to support farmers. Farming requires an enormous amount of working capital each year, and crops are subject to the whims of the weather. U.S. farming is an export business. America is one of the largest grain producers in the world.

An extra $12 billion in the pockets of farmers could flow through to several stocks. Farmers buy products such as fertilizer, seeds, and crop protection from the likes of Mosaic, Corteva , and FMC. They also buy machinery from Deere , AGCO , CNH Industrial, and others.

The aid money is likely to benefit seed and crop protection makers sooner than machinery makers. Tractors are big purchases that aren’t bought every year; one year of financial support might not make a difference there.

After the announcement, Corteva stock closed down 1.4%, Mosaic rose 0.1%, and FMC fell 1.3%.

Deere and AGCO shares dropped. AGCO stock fell 0.9%, closing near the lows of the day. Trump talked about making tractors more affordable and cheaper to manufacture, and talk of product pricing from the While House might have spooked investors.

Deere shares lost 1.8%, closing at $466.35 after trading as high as $488.99. Its investor day had something to do with the move. Deere management said the company was targeting 10% sales growth between fiscal year 2025 and 2030. Wall Street estimates don’t go out that far; however, analysts project about 8% growth between fiscal year 2025 and 2028. Management’s goal looks aggressive, and investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach.

Then there is the next layer of companies in the farming ecosystem. Processors such as Bunge and ADM , grain buyers such as egg producer Cal-Maine and meat producer JBS, and packaged-food companies including General Mills and Kellanova might see some less obvious benefits.

Packaged-food stocks don’t typically react to farm support. Grain costs are an important but relatively small piece of profit margins.

Grain prices matter more for processors and meat producers, but investors have to pay attention to spreads in those businesses—what those companies pay for inputs and sell as outputs matters more than the absolute price of corn or soybeans.

Shares of grain buyers were taking the news of extra support the worst. Shares of Bunge and ADM both fell about 1.8%.

Cal-Maine shares added 0.7%, while JBS stock fell 2.5%. The JBS drop could indicate investors expect grain prices to rise, but demand for meat and other products stays flat. That hasn’t happened yet. Benchmark corn futures were down 0.2% in midday trading on Monday. Soybean prices were down 1%.

The State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF was down 0.8%, not too much different than the broader market. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

Of the stocks mentioned, Wall Street is lukewarm on most. The average Buy-rating ratio for shares in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average Buy-rating ratio for food stocks is about 40%. The only food stocks listed with average Buy-rating ratios are Deere, with 56%, along with Bunge and Corteva, which have ratios of 73%. Kellanova has no buy ratings among its 16 analysts, according to Bloomberg.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com