Trump Closes in on Fed Chair Pick. It’s a Boost for Cryptos and These Stocks.

President Donald Trump speaks alongside Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett in September. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

The race could be over. President Donald Trump looks set to choose his economic adviser Kevin Hassett as chair of the Federal Reserve, barring any last minute fallout. And while knowing the likely identity of the next central bank chief provides some certainty for markets, it can also cause volatility.

Hassett has emerged as strong favorite to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell in recent weeks. The latest evidence is that the White House is canceling planned interviews with the small group of finalists for the role, according to The Wall Street Journal. Prediction markets now put Hassett’s chances at more than 80%.

The candidacy of Hassett hasn’t shocked the markets. He is aligned with Trump’s wishes for lower interest rates, recently saying he would help Americans get “cheaper car loans and easier access to mortgages.” But he is also an establishment conservative economist, who advised George W. Bush and John McCain. So far the ‘Hassett trade’ has only resulted in a marginally weaker dollar and some more appetite for risky assets—good news for crypto and AI-related stocks.

But having Hassett identified as the next Fed chair well before Powell’s term expires next May could cause instability. Will markets listen to the current chief or his successor for guidance? Will investors trust Hassett to resist political pressure to lower rates in the face of inflationary risks? Economists at UBS note that inflation has not been at the official Fed target of 2% since the start of 2021, and there’s a risk households and businesses might start behaving like the unofficial goal is 3%, opening the door to spiraling prices.

As the co-author of the poorly timed ‘Dow 36,000’ in 1999—an ill-fated prediction of stock market gains just before the dot-com bubble burst—Hassett has experience of market overexuberance. Long-term investors will have to hope he has learned the lessons of the past and fights for the independence of the Fed if he is named chair.

—Adam Clark

*** What’s Ahead for Markets in 2026? From “Liberation Day” tariffs to torrid rallies in AI stocks and gold, this year has been full of surprises. Join us on Dec. 11 at noon for discussions with investment strategists and money managers about the outlook for the economy and markets in 2026—and how to position your portfolio for success. Sign up here.

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As Amazon Announces AI Chips, Nvidia Defends Its Ground

In a challenge to AI industry leaders Nvidia and Alphabet-owned Google’s custom chips, Amazon said its newest artificial-intelligence Trainium 3 chips are now available. Amazon has focused on developing its own chips to avoid becoming too dependent on costly hardware from Nvidia.

• Amazon said UltraServers powered by up to 144 of its in-house Trainium 3 artificial intelligence chips offer more than four times the computing performance to train larger AI models faster and serve more users at a lower cost than its previous generation.
• AI start-up Anthropic said it expects to be using more than one million Trainium 2 chips by the end of 2025, including its Project Rainier supercomputer with nearly 500,000 Trainium processors. J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth e xpects Amazon Web Services to expand access to more customers.
• Nvidia is battling AI challengers on multiple fronts, but CFO Colette Kress said it is “absolutely not” losing market share to the Tensor Processing Units developed by Alphabet’s Google. Instead, Nvidia’s customers are staying on its platform and most Nvidia chips are going into new data centers, she said.
• Nvidia continues to strike deals to expand its reach. This week, in addition to Monday’s announcement of a $2 billion stake in Synopsys, it has teamed with Hewlett Packard Enterprise on an AI Factory Lab in France and with Japan’s industrial robot maker Fanuc to develop AI robots.

What’s Next: OpenAI urged staff to improve ChatGPT instead of pursuing initiatives like AI agents for health and shopping, on concerns it was losing its AI leadership to Google’s Gemini 3. But trying to compete with Google could delay OpenAI in its trajectory toward $100 billion in annual revenue by 2027.

— Adam Clark and Janet H. Cho

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Marvell Boosted by AI as Data Center Business Takes Off

AI is also boosting less prominent tech names, including Marvell Technology, which beat third-quarter expectations on the strength of its data center business and forecast stronger-than-expected growth for the segment. CEO Matt Murphy sees data center revenue rising more than 25% next fiscal year.

• It reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of 76 cents a share on revenue of $2.08 billion. Data center revenue—which accounts for the majority of Marvell’s sales—was $1.52 billion, a 38% increase from the prior year and coming in just above Wall Street estimates.
• Marvell said it expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings to be 79 cents a share, plus or minus 5 cents, and that’s about even with Wall Street forecasts. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be $2.2 billion, plus or minus 5%.
• It also said it will acquire AI start-up Celestial AI in a $3.25 billion cash and stock deal. Murphy’s data center forecast doesn’t include this pending deal. Marvell, which makes application specific integrated circuits, has struggled to convince the market it can win long-term deals amid tough competition.

What’s Next: ASICs are an integrated circuit chip customized for a specific use. Google’s Tensor Processing Units, now seen as a potential alternative to Nvidia’s chips in some cases, are an example. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri believes tech firms want to diversify suppliers, looking to both GPU chips as well as ASICs.

— Angela Palumbo

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Apple Stock Hits Record High After AI Chief Retires

Apple’s artificial intelligence problems appear to be fading, if recent market moves are anything to go by. Shares closed at a record on Tuesday, just a day after the head of the iPhone maker’s AI efforts retired.

• Apple stock rose 1.1% to a new high of $286.19. It has now finished in the green for seven days in a row, lifting the company’s market capitalization to $4.23 trillion. The only U.S. company with a higher total valuation is AI chip maker Nvidia, at $4.41 trillion.
• The shares’ success suggests investors have moved on from the disappointing launch of Apple Intelligence and the continuing questions surrounding the company’s AI efforts, capped by the departure of AI chief John Giannandrea on Monday.
• As is usually the case for Apple, iPhone sales matter most. The stock is up 16% since Oct. 10, as positive reports began to mount about sales of the new iPhone 17 lineup. Apple is the second-best performing Magnificent Seven member during that period, behind Alphabet, which has rallied amid investor excitement about the Google parent’s AI efforts.
• Investors seem to have gotten over the worst of their AI worries, with Apple shares once again trading on the topics that have tended to matter most to the market. That’s device sales, a huge and loyal base of users, growth in the company’s services business, and a cash return program that is about to reach a total of $1 trillion over all-time.

What’s Next: Expect focus to remain on the iPhone 17, which launched in the fall. Wall Street analysts are forecasting iPhone sales growth of 11% over Apple’s fiscal first quarter, which covers the all-important holiday gift-giving season.

— Adam Levine and George Glover

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As Luster Tarnishes on Splashy IPOs, 2026 Could Be Crypto Year

Circle Internet Group and Figma were two of 2026’s splashiest initial public offerings but their stocks have faded. It seems investors lack the appetite to continue holding newly listed stocks. Instead, they are cashing in their holdings quickly after early gains, said Samuel Kerr, Mergermarket’s global head of equity capital markets.

• Some of the year’s top IPOs were by less-mature companies with greater risks. Several high-profile ones, such as StubHub, Gemini Space Station, and Klarna, are now trading well below both their IPO prices and their first-day closing prices.
• Only two of the 20 largest IPOs of the past six months, McGraw Hill and Figure Technology Solutions, were trading above their debut-day closing prices as of Monday, according to FactSet and Dow Jones Market Data. Just eight of the 20 biggest were trading above their offering price.
• Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins said Tuesday that to revive America’s IPO business, the government should ease financial disclosure requirements for smaller companies, reveal less about executive compensation, and raise the size threshold for the full-disclosure documents required of public companies.
• Accommodations already exist under the JOBS Act of 2012 that allow tiny companies to file abbreviated registration statements for their IPOs and give them more time to adopt new accounting standards. Atkins suggested extending this by giving newly public small companies several years of lightened disclosure obligations.

What’s Next: Next year is expected to be big for crypto IPOs, with Kraken, BitGo, Consensys, Blockchain.com, and Ledger all potentially going public. Digital asset management firm Grayscale Investments has also filed for an IPO, and could debut this year or in early 2026.

— Paul R. La Monica, Bill Alpert, and Janet H. Cho

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Bitcoin Recoups Lost Ground. Is It a Sign of a Stock Rally?

Bitcoin has been at the center of speculative activity in financial markets. A late autumn slump lopped nearly $750 billion in its value since its Oct. 5 peak, a drop that rippled through broader markets as investors retreated from riskier assets. On Tuesday, it finally bounced back above $90,000. Stocks also rose.

• Bitcoin dipped briefly below $84,000 on Monday, the lowest level since April. Pressure could be linked to developments at the Bank of Japan, which signaled plans to raise interest rates. That spiked Japanese government bond yields, sparking the unwinding of trades funded by the borrowing of cheap Japanese yen.
• But now that Bitcoin has bounced back from a weekend selloff, the question is whether it will become a catalyst for markets more broadly. It’s likely to remain a daily barometer for investors looking for an end-of-year boost, at least until the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week.
• Despite Bitcoin’s Tuesday rally, sentiment remains bearish, with positions in the Bitcoin derivatives markets suggesting that traders are bracing for another big drop. The $80,000 mark is considered a critical support level, while some analysts at Binance see a possible drop as far as $65,000.
• Shares of American Bitcoin, the crypto miner co-founded by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., sank 35% because the lockup from a June private placement ended, allowing early investors to sell. Less than two hours after the opening bell, 48 million shares had changed hands—10 times its daily average.

What’s Next: Eric Trump said in a social media post that he was going to continue holding all his American Bitcoin shares. Since it mines its own tokens, it can accumulate Bitcoin at a significant discount to the average price in the spot market, Executive Chairman Asher Genoot told Barron’s.

— Martin Baccardax, Anita Hamilton, and Nate Wolf

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Dear Quentin,

I am a 61-year-old public school teacher contemplating retirement next summer. My wife and I have $1.3 million in investments, along with a paid-off apartment which costs us about $1,200 a month, including everything—assessment, taxes and utilities. In addition, I can begin collecting my guaranteed benefit pension of about $60,000 a year.

I don’t currently pay into Social Security because of my public pension, but based on my early work life, I have about $1,000 a month in Social Security coming at age 67. My wife, who is also 61, will receive about $21,000 in Social Security at age 67. She is a physical therapist and plans to continue working for at least six or seven more years.

Together, we earn about $150,000 a year gross, leaving investment income aside, and we spend a little more than half of that — $80,000 to $90,000 a year. I love my work too, but the landscape for teachers is changing and, more importantly, I would like to retire to work on a project I’ve been preparing for years.

When I run retirement calculators we seem to be in a great position for me to retire on schedule next year. But I am aware that my pension as a Chicago public school teacher is dependent on factors that are very much in flux right now—federal budget cuts and education policy shifts, as well as local and state fiscal problems.

Is my public pension safe?

— Worried in Chicago

Read the Moneyist’s response here.

— Quentin Fottrell

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Callum Keown, Rupert Steiner