Trump Has Soured on Putin. What That Means for Ukraine.

Just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin talked with President Donald Trump on the phone on July 3, Russia launched a large-scale attack on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. (MIKHAIL METZEL / Sputnik / Getty Images)

About the author: Angela Stent is nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, senior advisor to the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, and professor emerita of government and foreign service at Georgetown University. She is the author of Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest.

Until recently, it appeared that President Donald Trump’s priority in the Russia-Ukraine war was to improve relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, irrespective of how much progress there was on achieving a cease-fire. But that is changing.

Trump has started to express frustration with Putin, who Trump says is “friendly” in conversations but then unleashes merciless bombing campaigns on Ukraine. “He is very nice all the time,” Trump told reporters last week. “But it turns out to be meaningless.”

The president’s shifting opinion on Putin is notable, given his previous reluctance to criticize the Russian president. It comes alongside increases in U.S. support for Ukraine this month, although it isn’t clear yet whether that will pressure Putin to end the war any sooner.

These changes might have been prompted, in part, by the success of the recent NATO summit in The Hague. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte had worked hard in the preceding months to develop a productive relationship with Trump and to ensure the summit would be agreeable to him. He shortened its duration and avoided contentious subjects.

Most notably, at the 2024 summit, NATO agreed to develop a Russia strategy that takes account of the new security threats to the alliance for the 2025 summit. But, following Trump’s election, their work on this strategy ceased: They realized that it would be impossible for the U.S. and Europe to agree on how to deal with Russia. There was little formal discussion of Russia at this year’s gathering.

The summit gave Trump what he has called for since his first term—that Europe should spend more money on its own defense. All of the NATO allies, except Spain, pledged to increase military spending to 5% of their annual gross domestic product by 2035.

Trump announced himself very satisfied. European allies had shown an “unbelievable” love for their countries, he said. The alliance is no longer a “rip-off” for the U.S. And although it will take at least a decade for the allies’ military spending to reach the 5% of GDP target, Trump can now say that his years of complaints about the lack of burden-sharing have borne fruit.

But what appears to have truly altered Trump’s views on the war are his own experiences with Putin.

Trump has had six publicly-disclosed conversations with the Russian leader this year, most recently in early July. Shortly after some of these talks, Russia increased its attacks on Ukraine, both on civilians and infrastructure. Putin still refuses to agree to a cease-fire until the “root causes” of its war are addressed. By that, Putin means the subjugation of Ukraine to Russia, effectively ending Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign state with the right to choose its own allies and partners.

Trump has apparently concluded that his goal of ending the war is being thwarted by his onetime friend, Putin. He is adjusting his strategy accordingly.

On July 13, Trump announced that the European Union could purchase advanced air defense systems—particularly the U.S.-manufactured Patriot batteries that Ukraine urgently needs—and other defensive weapons and then give them to Ukraine. This setup is designed to appeal to much of the MAGA base, which doesn’t support more assistance to Ukraine but might accept a program that doesn’t boost U.S. spending and provides jobs for Americans.

There was also talk of the U.S. supplying Ukraine offensive, long-range systems that could reach Moscow, such as the Tomahawk missile. But so far, Trump hasn’t approved that.

He has also declined to endorse a bipartisan Senate bill that would place 500% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, natural gas, and uranium—unless they also provide financial or military support to Ukraine. But Trump’s announcement on July 13 threatened Russia with other trade penalties. If it doesn’t stop bombing Ukraine in 50 days, Trump warned, the U.S. will impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia and on countries who trade with it.

Such tariffs would barely affect Russia, since its trade with the U.S. is minimal. But they could have a major impact on China, India, and Turkey—the top importers of Russian crude oil. Beijing, however, might well retaliate, just as the Trump administration is trying to negotiate tariff agreements with China.

The ultimatum is problematic, if only because 50 days is enough time for Russia to accelerate its brutal summer offensive. Moreover, it is unclear what the U.S. will do if Putin doesn’t cease bombing Ukraine after 50 days. Trump hinted at more severe measures—without specifying what those might be.

Russia shrugged off Trump’s threats. Putin’s commentators have ridiculed the Trump administration’s policies and argue that the weapons Trump promises are unlikely to change realities on the battlefield. Some have also suggested that if Trump tried to penalize buyers of Russian oil, then global oil prices would sharply increase—to the detriment of the U.S. and its Western allies. Kremlin officials reiterate Putin’s statement that the “special military operation” will continue until the “root causes” of the conflict are addressed—that is, the independence of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasing its own drone attacks inside Russia, including on Moscow and St. Petersburg. But Russia continues to make incremental territorial advances inside Ukraine. Russia now controls 20% of Ukrainian territory and is concentrating its efforts in the country’s east, particularly in the Donetsk region.

The European Union voted last week to impose its most punitive sanctions on Russia and to reduce the oil price cap from $60 a barrel to $47.60, which will further strain the Russian economy. Nevertheless, the Russian economy is so far performing just well enough to enable Putin to continue his war. Growth rates have been high in the wartime economy—4.4% in the last quarter of 2024. But it fell to 1.5% in the first quarter of 2025, and year-over-year inflation stands at roughly 10%. There is an acute labor shortage. Manufacturing is down, and Russian officials are now warning of a recession.

Putin will only agree to negotiate a cease-fire if he no longer believes he can win that fight. It remains to be seen whether Trump’s recent moves will be able to convince him of that.

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