Trump Boosts Stock Markets with China Talks. Reasons to Bet on a Trade Deal.

(Alex Wong/Getty Images)

This is not exactly orthodox U.S. trade policy—President Donald Trump is cozying up with China while hitting out at Canada. But the stock market is getting used to such gyrations and should take the latest developments in its stride.

After weeks of anticipation, it was confirmed Trump will meet with China’s leader Xi Jinping next Thursday. It’s likely that wouldn’t be the case unless the framework for a trade deal has been established, although the real negotiations will begin when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his counterpart He Lifeng meet in the next few days.

That’s good news for stocks, which are dealing with a tariffs drag even in an earnings season that has been generally impressive to date. So far, 86% of the 130 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings have topped analysts’ estimates. However, there are still warnings about import taxes driving up prices, such as from footwear company Deckers Outdoor, which sank on a downbeat sales outlook.

There is also always the potential for the U.S.-China deal to be derailed. Just look at Canada. Late Thursday Trump said he was terminating trade negotiations with the U.S.’s northern neighbor. The cause? A television advertisement sponsored by the Ontario government featuring former U.S. President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. The fallout is bad news for auto makers such as General Motors and Stellantis, which have enjoyed a quota of tariff-free exports to Canada, even though the stocks haven’t reacted much early Friday.

Still, investors should know by now whether to take late-night social-media posts from Trump totally seriously. The latest kerfuffle with Canada will likely be sorted and chances generally look good for an agreement with China—at least until the next unpredictable wrangle.

— Adam Clark

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Intel Beats Expectations. Current Demand Is Outpacing Supply.

For its first earnings report since the government took a stake, Intel beat expectations, with sales growth in its core line of processing chips for personal computers and shrinking costs. CEO Lip-Bu Tan emphasized the steady progress in rebuilding the company and making its businesses more efficient.

• Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, up 3%, and adjusted earnings of 23 cents a share. Its client computing group revenue rose 5% to $8.5 billion, and its data center and AI revenue dipped 1% to $4.1 billion. Foundry revenue fell 2% to $4.2 billion.
• The chip maker’s guidance was solid. Intel forecast revenue of $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion for the current quarter, versus the consensus call of $13.4 billion. Intel’s guidance excludes Altera, following the company’s sale of a majority ownership in the third quarter.
• CFO David Zinsner said demand for PCs has been stronger than the company expected. Corporations are upgrading computers to move to the current version of Microsoft Windows. Enterprises and cloud computing companies are also upgrading servers at a strong pace, he said. Current demand is outpacing supply.
• Last month, Intel announced a new partnership with Nvidia, part of which entails Nvidia investing $5 billion in Intel stock. In August, the company also announced an agreement for the U.S. government to make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel shares.

What’s Next: Zinsner predicts Intel’s first quarter in 2026 will be the most challenging for the company to make enough chips to meet the robust demand. Intel’s first products based on its Panther Lake architecture will enter “high volume” production at Intel’s newest chip factory in Arizona later this year.

— Tae Kim

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Rivian Cuts Jobs. EV Pain Spreads Across Sector.

Electric-vehicle makers are battening down the hatches, preparing for some stormy weather. Rivian CEO R.J. Scaringe sent a memo to employees Thursday, laying out plans to cut the company’s workforce by about 4.5%. Rivian had almost 15,000 employees at the end of 2024.

• Things are getting even tougher for U.S. EV makers. Slower-than-expected EV penetration has put a lid on sales and plagued profitability aspirations. The loss of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit, which expired in September, only makes it more challenging to sell electric vehicles to Americans.
• “These are not changes that were made lightly,” said Scaringe in the note viewed by Barron’s. “With the changing operating backdrop, we had to rethink how we are scaling our go-to-market functions.” Changes are being made in vehicle operations, service, and marketing organizations.
• Rivian is expected to sell about 43,000 EVs this year. Two years ago, Wall Street projected 2025 sales of 116,000 vehicles. The start-up isn’t expected to generate positive gross profits this year. Two years ago, analysts projected 2025 gross profits of $1.3 billion.

What’s Next: When Ford CEO Jim Farley reported third-quarter numbers Thursday he warned that competition is getting tougher with Chinese auto makers expanding globally and the industry facing lower returns due to EV overcapacity and global pressures. With that as the backdrop, it makes sense Rivian is looking to cut costs. But that doesn’t ease the pain for affected employees.

— Al Root

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Billionaires, Tech Firms, Crypto Bros Funding White House’s Ballroom

The stunning site of a demolished East Wing wasn’t the only surprise this week for White House-watchers. President Donald Trump says the new ballroom that’s going in the East Wing’s place will cost $300 million, 50% more than he initially said. And the administration released the list of donors footing the bill.

• The 90,000 square foot venue will have vaulted ceilings and gilded decor. Trump hasn’t said how much of his own money is going to the project. Other donors include billionaires, tech firms, and the crypto industry, many of whom also gave generously to Trump’s 2025 inauguration.
• The tech industry—whose CEOs also got prime seats at Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration—is well represented among the ballroom donors, including Amazon, Apple, Google, HP, Micron, Microsoft, and Palantir. All pledged an undisclosed amount of funding.
• Other notable donors include crypto firms Coinbase, Ripple, and Tether, crypto billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the defense contractor Lockheed Martin, tobacco companies Altria and Reynolds American, oil and gas billionaire Harold Hamm, and electrical power and energy infrastructure firm NextEra.
• Officials in the Trump administration are also listed. They include the family of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration Kelly Loeffler and her husband Jeff Sprecher, who is CEO of New York Stock Exchange parent Intercontinental Exchange.

What’s Next: Today, Trump is slated to leave the U.S. for a week-long tour of Asia. He is making multiple stops, starting in Malaysia, then Japan, and will end in South Korea for a one-on-one with China’s President Xi Jinping Thursday. Then he returns for Halloween festivities at the White House.

— Anita Hamilton and Liz Moyer

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Housing Supply Expected to Rise, Mortgage Rates Moderate

Housing costs are expected to stabilize in coming years, with more favorable conditions for buyers than sellers, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest forecast. A rising supply of homes from owners and builders will give buyers more options and tamp down price gains.

• Buyers who aren’t pushed to the sidelines from job market softening should have an easier time, the association’s chief economist Mike Fratantoni said. Mortgage rates staying in the low-6% range are “certainly better than the 7’s and 8’s that we saw over the past couple of years,” Fratantoni told Barron’s.
• If rates fall below 6%, demand for home loans would ramp up as buyers return to the market and owners with higher rates refinance, says Eric Hagen, a BTIG analyst covering mortgage and specialty finance. But even rates around 6.5% spur “healthy turnover.”
• More than one in 10 home loan applicants during the week ended Oct. 17 sought an adjustable-rate mortgage, at an average rate of 5.55% for the first several years, compared with a 6.37% average rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate loan.
• Existing-homes in September changed hands at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, the National Association of Realtors said, lower than the prepandemic norm above five million. Existing sales are on track to end 2025 near the lowest level since the mid-1990s.

What’s Next: Sales of new and existing homes are expected to rise 4.6% and 5.1% next year, respectively, according to the forecast. Mortgage loan origination volume will rise 7.6%, as sales rise and some homeowners refinance.

— Shaina Mishkin and Janet H. Cho

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Halloween Scare: Candy For Trick-or-Treat Is More Expensive

Candy prices are frighteningly high this Halloween, with consumers getting less value in their candy bags, according to commodities consultant Judy Ganes of JGanes Consulting. Candy makers are adjusting for higher cocoa prices by reformulating recipes, repackaging products, and raising prices.

• Thirty-five percent of Americans have noted that candy is more expensive this year, and 57% say they’ll buy less of it because of higher chocolate prices, according to a “Trick-or-Treat-onomics” survey by the financial services firm Empower. Still, 35% plan to get full-size candy bars.
• Retail chocolate prices have risen noticeably. A six-pack of 1.55-ounce Hershey bars that cost $4.97 in mid-May now costs $8.24 at a Virginia Walmart, a Barron’s price check found. At a Phoenix Albertson’s, those same candy bars jumped from $6.99 in May to $11.49 this week.
• Cocoa futures are down 49% from their peak near $12,565 a metric ton last December, but the Halloween chocolates on sale now were likely made in the spring, “when the market was at considerably higher price levels,” Ganes said.
• In May Hershey, the maker of Reese’s, Kisses, and KitKats, raised its U.S. confection prices to r eflect the “cocoa inflation” it has absorbed in recent years. Higher prices could improve its adjusted gross margins this year and restore adjusted gross margins by more than 5% in 2026.

What’s Next: Tariffs are another contributor to rising costs, as cocoa isn’t grown in the U.S. Hershey said in July it expects full-year tariff costs of $170 million to $180 million but was hoping trade negotiations would bring some relief. Hershey could update that during its third quarter earnings next week.

— Janet H. Cho

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner