Tax Bill Latest: Senate Begins Vote-a-Rama as Trump Deadline Nears

Congress worked through the weekend on President Donald Trump’s signature spending bill. (AFP via Getty Images)

The Senate is poised to vote as soon as this evening on President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending legislation. Don’t expect it to go down smoothly.

On Monday, the Senate began a series of votes on amendments to the bill, which among other provisions extends the individual tax cuts passed during Trump’s first term in 2017. There is no limit to the number of amendment votes during the so-called vote-a-rama, and the process could extend late into the night and Tuesday morning.

The Senate voted 51-to-49 over the weekend on a procedural motion that opened debate on the bill. But there is no guarantee that those same senators will vote in favor of the final version. Some senators have expressed continued worries about the bill’s costs and cuts to Medicaid.

On Monday Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine), who is among the senators who have expressed concern about the Medicaid cuts, planned to introduce an amendment that would raise taxes on Americans making more than $25 million. It would increase the size of a fund meant to help rural hospitals hurt by the proposed Medicaid cuts.

Democrats planned to offer amendments removing cuts to Medicaid and food-stamp benefits.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) challenged a decision by Republican leadership to allow the bill to be judged by a “current policy baseline,” a budget gimmick that makes the cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts appear to be zero. The move by GOP leadership is helping Republicans avoid the filibuster and pass the bill with a simple majority along party lines, while obscuring the costs of the legislation.

Putting the gimmick aside, the bill is expected to vastly increase the federal debt. Over the weekend, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Senate bill will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. The White House’s own estimates say that the bill will reduce the deficit, though its projections are far rosier than those from most nonpartisan budget watchers.

Trump called on Republicans who have expressed concerns to get on board in a late Sunday post on Truth Social, suggesting that the tax cuts will be offset by faster economic growth.

“For all cost cutting Republicans, of which I am one, REMEMBER, you still have to get reelected,” Trump said. “Don’t go too crazy! We will make it all up, times 10, with GROWTH, more than ever before.”

Trump later posted that his “ONE GREAT BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, is moving along nicely!”

To garner 51 votes over the weekend, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) promised to offer an amendment to the bill that would end a 90% federal match on state spending on some Medicaid recipients. If approved, the amendment would cut the bill’s costs but also create even greater concerns among moderate GOP lawmakers in the Senate and House on cuts to Medicaid, the government health care program for low-income adults, seniors and people with disabilities. If the amendment fails, it creates at least some uncertainty that the final package can win the votes of fiscal hawks.

Even if the bill passes the Senate on Monday or Tuesday, there is also no guarantee that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R., La.) can quickly muster support needed to pass the bill by lawmakers’ self-imposed July 4th deadline. The House of Representatives is expected to pick up the bill on Tuesday, and House leadership hopes lawmakers can send the bill to Trump’s desk by Wednesday or Thursday.

Republicans can lose three votes in the House and the Senate and still pass the bill along party lines.

The House version of the bill in May passed by merely one vote. Some GOP lawmakers who voted in favor of that version have already expressed concerns about the Medicaid cuts added by the Senate.

It might take some arm twisting, but in the past, GOP moderates and fiscal hawks alike have folded when faced with pressure from Trump.

“Stopping the president’s agenda in its tracks or sending the bill back to the Senate for additional votes, delaying the process, is likely a bridge too far for a critical mass of House GOP members,” wrote analysts with Beacon Policy Advisors in a research note on Monday.

Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com and Brian Swint at brian.swint@barrons.com