Trump’s TikTok Win Is Good for Stocks. But This Matters Most to Markets.

(Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Welcome back to the TikTok two-step. No, it’s not a viral dance craze, just the slow moves toward a deal over the video-sharing app’s future in the U.S. The end looks to finally be in sight and it could be good news for the stock market as a whole.

U.S. and Chinese officials reached a framework deal Monday, and it looks like a concession from Beijing. TikTok’s U.S. operations are set to come under American ownership. That suggests China is willing to give up one bargaining chip in order to seal a permanent trade deal.

Of course, it’s two steps forward, one step back. China also said Monday that U.S. chip maker Nvidia had breached antimonopoly laws as its campaign to wean domestic companies from their reliance on American artificial-intelligence processors continues apace.

Both countries are reaching for every bit of leverage. The U.S. has successfully reduced Chinese goods to about 12% of all U.S. imports on a 12-month rolling basis, down from a peak of 22% in 2018. But China has more than filled the shortfall by boosting exports to other countries. Still, China’s tech giants are suffering from a lack of advanced hardware, while America’s soybean farmers aren’t getting orders from Chinese customers.

For individual sectors, such disruptions are major. But for the stock market as a whole, the important thing is that the 90-day tariff truce in place between the two sides—which runs out in November—is renewed and eventually replaced by a permanent agreement. That looks to be inching closer with the key being a potential summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this year.

Markets should be celebrating that there hasn’t been a permanent breakup, even if it feels a little like Washington and Beijing are waltzing round in circles.

—Adam Clark

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TikTok Gets Another Lifeline, Though Details Are Scant

TikTok might live to see another day. The video sharing app that Congress has banned but President Donald Trump has revived three times is part of a deal the U.S. is negotiating with China. The two have “reached a framework” on a TikTok solution, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

• Bessent was in Spain again on Monday for broader trade talks with China that otherwise punted on export controls, tariffs, and other issues, complicating their strategic rivalry for a later date. TikTok, currently owned by China-based ByteDance, would go to an American owner to address U.S. national security concerns.
• The details are scant, however. It isn’t clear whether a ByteDance divestment would include TikTok’s algorithm or what concessions the U.S. made in return. Bessent said the deal was subject to a signoff between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who are set to speak on Friday.
• China trade negotiator Li Chenggang confirmed the two sides had reached a framework agreement, and he said the U.S. has also expressed its willingness to move together with China toward the same goal when it comes to reducing barriers to investment and promoting relevant cooperation.
• Bessent said the commercial deal had been set between two private parties. Many believe Oracle may be involved. China has long resisted American demands that TikTok be sold, but its evolving stance could be part of Beijing’s desire for an in-person meeting between Xi and Trump.

What’s Next: Bessent said the two sides would hold trade negotiations in a month, but didn’t offer a date. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described the talks as productive and left open the possibility of further extending the pause on tariff increases on China that expires Nov. 10.

— Reshma Kapadia

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Court Blocks Trump Bid to Fire Cook Ahead of Fed Meeting

An appeals court ruled late Monday that Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook can remain in her job, meaning she can take part in the central bank’s monetary policy meeting this week. President Donald Trump’s Fed nominee Stephen Miran is also likely to play a role after he was confirmed by the Senate.

• The ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit means Cook can participate in the Fed’s two-day meeting, which starts today. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point.
• The court found in a 2-1 decision that a lower court was correct in concluding that Cook’s removal likely violated her right to due process. Cook launched her legal battle on Aug. 28 after she was terminated by Trump. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte alleged she made false claims on mortgage documents in 2021 that may have secured her more favorable loan terms.
• Miran was confirmed as a Fed governor Monday night by the Senate in a tight 48-47 vote. The White House economic advisor will replace former Gov. Adriana Kugler, who left the board last month.

What’s Next: Whether Miran can be sworn in quickly enough to participate in the Fed meeting remains unclear. The logistical turnaround from Senate approval to seating is typically several days, though there have been cases where governors have joined a meeting just one day after being confirmed.

— Megan Leonhardt, Nicole Goodkind and Emily Russell

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Musk’s $1 Billion Tesla Stock Purchase Comes Before Proxy Vote

Tesla’s stock is positive for the year for the first time since Jan. 31 after CEO Elon Musk disclosed he purchased about $1 billion. It’s Musk’s first Tesla stock purchase since 2020, a show of confidence that likely comes from the electric-vehicle maker’s artificial intelligence efforts.

• Musk’s total holdings, excluding any stock options, are now about 413 million shares. He last bought Tesla shares on the open market in February 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. From its April 8 low for this year, Tesla stock is now up 85%. It’s up 1.5% for the whole year.
• Tesla’s earnings are depressed, with car sales down 13% in the first half of the year from a year ago, but the company believes it is on the cusp of a new wave of earnings growth thanks to AI-trained self-driving cars and humanoid robots.
• Tesla’s stock is affected by Musk’s political activities, the amount of time he spends at his numerous other businesses, declining EV sales growth, and potential delays in robo-taxis or robots. Musk’s purchase is a relatively small portion of his net worth, estimated by Forbes at $460 billion.
• Musk also holds about 300 million stock options valued around $150 billion. He was awarded those in the contested 2018 pay package that shareholders approved twice. The second time came after a Delaware judge voided the pay package, citing insufficient shareholder disclosures.

What’s Next: Tesla shareholders will vote on Nov. 6 on a 2025 pay package for Musk that would award him about 425 million incentive-laden options. If he hits all the incentives in the proposed plan, the options would be worth roughly $1 trillion.

— Al Root

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Home Sales Are Primed to Pop If Mortgage Rates Hit This Level

Home sales could take off if mortgage rates fall to around 6%, says the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist. That level no longer looks like quite as much of a reach as it did a couple months ago—though it will take better reads on inflation to get there.

• NAR’s Lawrence Yun said it hinges on improving inflation numbers and signals that the Fed will cut rates in 2025 and 2026. Home sales could jump 10% to 15% next year if mortgage rates fall to 6%, he said. After three years of slow sales, the market is primed to pop.
• Roughly six million households who had been priced out of the market by higher rates could afford to buy a home if mortgage rates fell to that level, Yun told Barron’s, citing the trade group’s analysis of U.S. income distribution.
• Not all six million would ultimately decide to buy, but it’s reasonable to expect that about 10% of them would, Yun says. That expectation brings the economist to a “conservative” estimate of a 10% to 15% increase in sales, assuming 2025’s total is about flat with last year.
• Key to that prediction is a downward trend for mortgage rates, which largely follow the 10-year Treasury yield and is based on future expectations for the economy and monetary policy. Existing-home sales are on course to end 2025 near the roughly 30-year low they reached in both 2023 and 2024.

What’s Next: A recent decline in mortgage rates has made 6% feel much closer than it did a few months ago. Mortgage News Daily on Monday pegged the 30-year fixed rate at 6.25%, the lowest level since last autumn.

— Shaina Mishkin

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Trump Revives Idea of Semiannual Corporate Reporting

President Trump revived an idea from his first term that would relinquish the obligation of companies to report quarterly financial results, moving that bar to every six months. The Securities and Exchange Commission has required quarterly disclosure since 1970.

• The idea was subject to SEC approval, Trump said in a social media post, but it wasn’t immediately clear whether the SEC was considering such a move. Other countries have moved to semiannual reporting, including the U.K. in 2014.
• In a 2019 survey of the CFA Institute’s global membership, 59% of respondents disagreed that regulators should consider a change to uniform semiannual reporting, while 36% agreed. Many cited the potential for leaks that undermine market fairness.
• While businesses may complain about the cost of compiling quarterly reports and the pressures of managing their businesses for quarterly results, it isn’t clear that less frequent reporting would improve capital formation for businesses.
• But it could hamper the legions of investors and analysts on Wall Street, and Main Street, who base their stock selection on quarterly inputs. The market pricing of American stocks is widely seen as one of the most efficient of all assets, and is the gold standard among all value-setting mechanisms.

What’s Next: Researchers in Germany recently found the market value of companies tended to drop with less frequent reporting. Deregulation reversed the positive effects of mandatory quarterly reporting, increasing information asymmetry and lowering firm value, lead author and Dresden University of Technology professor Lars Hornuf found.

— Bill Alpert and Nate Wolf

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Callum Keown