Trump Trade Deadlines Come and Go. Why Stock Market Uncertainty Is Here to Stay.
Jul 07, 2025 06:59:00 -0400 | #Markets #The Barron's Daily
(Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
“I love deadlines. I love the whooshing noise they make as they go by,” said the late Douglas Adams, author of The Hitchhikers’s Guide to the Galaxy. The Wednesday deadline for President Donald Trump’s tariffs appears to be following in this tradition.
The 90-day reprieve on the high tariff rates is due to expire July 9 for most countries, with only the U.K. and Vietnam having achieved permanent arrangements on trade so far.
But that deadline may end up whooshing by for markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested Sunday that the real cutoff might be Aug. 1—that’s when the tariffs would revert to levels announced April 2, rather than the current across-the-board 10%.
In a social-media post overnight Trump reminded markets that uncertainty is never far away as he threatened additional 10% levies on any country seen to be pursuing “anti-American” policies.
Stocks climbed to new highs ahead of the July 4 weekend as the president signed his signature tax bill into law. Investors are now bracing for whatever comes next, and tariffs are back at the top of the agenda. There are other impending events that could move markets—the Federal Reserve publishes minutes of its most recent meeting Wednesday, and consumer confidence data are out Tuesday. Added to that, jeans maker Levi Strauss and Delta Air Lines —which suspended full-year guidance in April because tariffs clouded the outlook—report quarterly earnings Thursday.
If there’s a lesson to be learned from other things that threatened to derail the stock market rally, it’s that markets are quick to move on. The tariff reversals, the ups and downs with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and the tax bill drama—none of it has derailed markets.
Adams left another helpful saying on the cover of the Hitchhikers Guide that investors could heed this week as tariff deadlines come and go: Don’t Panic.
*** Join Barron’s senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin and deputy editor Ben Levisohn today at noon when they meet up with Richard Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, who calls this the most speculative investment climate he has ever seen in his lengthy career. The three will discuss the economic and investment outlook. Sign up here.
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It’s Trade Deadline Time. Here’s Where Tariffs Stand.
As the White House raced to secure trade concessions ahead of its self-imposed Wednesday deadline, officials were out in force on Sunday delivering the administration’s message to negotiate or accept its terms. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said rates would revert to higher levels on Aug. 1 without deals.
- Bessent told CNN that countries need to move talks along or tariff rates on their goods would “boomerang” from the current 10% baseline to the higher levels President Donald Trump announced in April and then suspended until Wednesday so negotiations could get under way.
- Since then, the U.S. has announced two deals, with the U.K. and Vietnam, plus a framework for China. Discussions are under way with India and the European Union. Trump’s so-called April 2 reciprocal tariffs were set at rates mostly from 20% to 49%.
- Trump will be sending about a dozen countries letters today setting tariff rates on their goods. Bessent and other Trump administration officials said over the weekend that they expect to see several deals come to fruition this week. The Treasury Secretary told CNN the plan was to apply “maximum pressure.”
- Trump threatened any countries aligning with the “anti-American policies” of the BRICS group of countries with an extra 10% tariff in a Truth Social post late Sunday. BRICS, an acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa but includes more countries, criticized U.S. trade policy and the strikes on Iran at its summit over the weekend.
What’s Next: Trump said he prefers to send letters rather than sit with individual countries to hash out specific deals. “I think that letters are better for us,” Trump told reporters. “I think a simple tariff is simpler than, better than sitting down and working 15 different things.”
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Fed Minutes Could Give Insights on Next Rate Move
Wednesday isn’t just a key day for tariffs. That’s when the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes from its June meeting, which could give additional insight into the policymakers’ thought process on interest rates. Many economists expect the Fed to next cut rates in September.
- Rate cuts have been on hold since last December and the Fed looks set to take the summer off after another solid jobs report released last week pushed traders to price in almost no chance of a rate cut at the late-July meeting. Chair Jerome Powell expects inflation to tick higher during the summer.
- Vanguard senior U.S. economist Josh Hirt told MarketWatch that a possible September rate cut would come up against those inflation expectations, and the Fed is going to have to look through it. Lower rates could make sense but rate cuts can fuel higher inflation.
- Economists are divided on what happens next. Nationwide Financial chief economist Kathy Bostjancic told MarketWatch the Fed could cut rates three times this year, starting in September, though she sees wiggle room for Powell. If inflation worsens after a September cut, the Fed can then stay on hold.
- Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti, on the other hand, tells MarketWatch the Fed might not cut rates until December. The labor market doesn’t look weak and the unemployment rate fell in June, he pointed out.
What’s Next: Despite President Trump’s repeated urging of Powell and the Fed to cut rates, expectations are that the Fed will leave rates steady this month, while futures markets see a 66% probability of a quarter-point cut in September (versus 31% who see no cut), according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
— Liz Moyer and Dan Lam
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Elon Musk Returns to Politics. What That Means for Tesla.
Tesla investors were elated when CEO Elon Musk gave up his cost-slashing job in the Trump administration to return to his companies full time. Imagine what they thought over the weekend, when Musk announced his return to politics with the formation of his own party.
- Musk unveiled the “America Party” after polling his 222 million X followers. He has criticized the mega tax and spending bill just signed into law by President Trump for raising the national debt nearly $4 trillion, and says his party could target two or three Senate races and eight to 10 House districts.
- Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said Musk diving deeper into politics is exactly the opposite direction that Tesla investors/shareholders want him to take. The CEO is busy launching Tesla’s self-driving taxis, which Ives and other Wall Street analysts believe could be worth hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars.
- Although Musk’s core supporters will back him “at every turn no matter what,” Ives said there is a broader sense of exhaustion from many Tesla investors about Musk’s political activities. Trump has lobbed threats at Musk, including alluding to a loss of government subsidies that benefit Tesla and other Musk companies.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday that although Musk’s government cost-cutting principles were popular with voters, Musk wasn’t. He expects the boards of Musk’s companies “will be encouraging him to focus on his business activities, not his political activities.”
What’s Next: Musk’s America Party idea “appears likely to make [life] even more unpredictable,” says Carl Tobias, Williams Chair in Law at the University of Richmond. In the looming 2026 midterm elections, Republicans and Democrats “will do all possible to win razor-thin majorities in the Senate and House.”
— Al Root, Liz Moyer, and Janet H. Cho
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These IPOs Could Make Waves After Circle, CoreWeave Success
The market is getting excited about initial public offerings again. After the strong performances of recently floated stablecoin company Circle and cloud-rental company CoreWeave, it’s worth casting an eye over three other tech companies that could be listing candidates.
- Design-software market Figma filed a proposed IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission last Tuesday. The company was set to be sold for $20 billion to its larger rival Adobe in 2023, but the deal fell apart in the face of opposition from U.K. regulators. The sheen has faded somewhat since then, but sales are still growing fast.
- Another company that has filed paperwork for an IPO is chip maker Cerebras. Revenue of $136.4 million for the first half of 2024 was more than 15 times the figure from a year earlier. However, Cerebras does look reliant on Abu Dhabi-based AI software and services company G42, which accounted for nearly 90% of its sales during that period.
- A more speculative option is data-storage company Databricks. While it isn’t known to have filed for an IPO, rumors have ramped up following a $10 billion funding round that valued the company at $62 billion late last year.
What’s Next: Healthy returns aren’t guaranteed—the stock in newly public companies often drops back after their lockup periods expire, typically six months from the listing date, allowing insiders and early investors to unload their shares. Still, it’s worth thinking about the potential of these IPO candidates.
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‘Jurassic World Rebirth’ Extends Hollywood’s Summer Movie Hot Streak
Comcast’s Universal Pictures’ Jurassic World Rebirth chomped its way to the top of the domestic and global box office, becoming the biggest opening of 2025 as Hollywood enjoys a summer-movie surge. The Jurassic film series has collectively sold more than $6.3 billion in theater tickets since 1993.
- The latest dinosaur flick sold $91.5 million over the three-day holiday, and $147.3 million since its July 2 debut, according to Comscore. It extends a streak for Hollywood after a slow start to 2025. So far this year, domestic box office sales are $4.44 billion, up 14.7% from a year ago, Comscore said.
- Warner Bros. Discovery’s A Minecraft Movie is still the year’s top-grossing film, with $423.9 million in domestic box office through Sunday. And Warner Bros. and Apple Original Films’ F1 The Movie took second place in its second weekend, with $25 million in domestic ticket sales.
- Universal’s DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon was in third place with $11 million in ticket sales through Sunday and $224 million cumulatively since June 13. Walt Disney Pixar’s Elio sold another $5.7 million for a domestic cumulative of $55.1 million in its third weekend.
What’s Next: Jurassic World Rebirth begins what Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian said will be an extremely solid July, with Warner Bros.’ Superman flying into theaters on Friday and other big titles from every genre in the coming weeks and through Labor Day Monday, he told Barron’s.
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MarketWatch Wants to Hear From You
Much of the controversy surrounding the newly enacted Republican megabill are focused on its provisions that cut taxes and slash the social safety net. But it is also quietly ushering in a new era in higher education and student lending. What should student borrowers expect?
A MarketWatch correspondent will answer this question soon. Meanwhile, send any questions you would like answered to thebarronsdaily@barrons.com.
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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Callum Keown